A third set of reassuring quarterly figures

Jackpotjoy 15 August 2017 Update (1-4pgs)
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Jackpotjoy plc

A third set of reassuring quarterly figures

Q2 financial statements

Travel & leisure

 

15 August 2017

Price

665p

Market cap

£492m

€1.1/£

Net debt (£m) at 30 June 2017

325

Shares in issue

74.1m

Free float

95%

Code

JPJ

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(0.5)

17.4

N/A

Rel (local)

(0.6)

18.5

N/A

52-week high/low

680.0p

534.0p

Business description

Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) (formerly The Intertain Group) is a leading online gaming operator mainly focused on bingo-led gaming targeted towards female audiences. About 77% of revenues are generated in regulated markets. It moved its listing from the TSX to the LSE in January 2017.

Next events

Q3 financial statements

13/11/17

Analysts

Victoria Pease

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Jackpotjoy plc is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) has produced another set of robust quarterly earnings, with Q217 revenues increasing 17% to £75.2m and a 39.9% EBITDA margin. The core Jackpotjoy division grew 18% and is gaining market share. Q3 has started well, management has reiterated its expectations for FY17 and our forecasts remain unchanged. The stock trades at a significant discount to peers, with 2018e multiples of 7.2x EV/EBITDA, 6.1x P/E and 15.0% free cash flow yield. The balance sheet is simplifying following a major earn-out payment and, as the company continues to demonstrate its market dominance, we would expect a re-rating in the shares.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

EBITDA* (£m)

PBT* (£m)

EPS* (p)

DPS (p)

P/E (x)

Yield (%)

12/15

194.6

70.4

46.1

73.0

0.0

9.1

N/A

12/16

269.0

102.2

65.6

88.4

0.0

7.5

N/A

12/17e

294.8

105.7

70.9

93.8

0.0

7.1

N/A

12/18e

322.3

113.8

84.4

109.2

0.0

6.1

N/A

12/19e

345.3

116.4

93.0

118.0

0.0

5.6

N/A

Note: *EBITDA, PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. EPS is fully diluted.

Continued momentum, forecasts unchanged

Q2 revenues grew by 17% to £75.2m, primarily driven by an 18% increase in the core Jackpotjoy division. Mandalay has reversed the decline in Q117 and is up 10% sequentially. Benefiting from currency, Vera&John grew 30% vs Q216. Average LTM active customers increased 13% to 243,896 vs the prior year and average real money gaming (RMG) per month grew 16% to £21.8m. The Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin of 39.9% is expected to decline in H217, with the impact of higher gaming taxes as well as a significant marketing campaign. Our forecasts remain unchanged.

A simplifying balance sheet

Following the £94.2m earn-out payment to Gamesys, JPJ ended the quarter with an unrestricted cash balance of £24.0m and net debt of £325.3m. The most significant remaining obligation is a c £44m earn-out payment in June 2018 (for Botemania). Adjusted net debt/EBITDA remains high at 3.6x, but underlying cash conversion in Q217 was 99% and JPJ currently generates c £20-25m operating cash flow per quarter. We forecast net debt of £290.2m in 2018, with an adjusted net leverage of 2.7x, reaching the company’s target of 2.0x during 2019.

Valuation: 7.2x 2018e EV/EBITDA

Since its LSE listing, JPJ has produced three sets of robust quarterly reports. The stock trades at a meaningful discount to its peer group, at 7.2x EV/EBITDA, 6.1x P/E and 15.0% free cash flow yield for 2018. The valuation reflects legacy concerns over the Gamesys relationship, high leverage, the lack of dividend and low stock liquidity. In our view, cash generation should lead to demonstrable debt reduction from 2018 and we would expect a re-rating as the market regains confidence in the business.

Q217 results
Overview

Q217 revenue increased 17% to £75.2m, driven by an 18% growth in the core Jackpotjoy division, representing 5.3% sequential growth. At June 2017, average active customers grew 13% in the quarter to 243,896 vs the prior year and average RMG per month grew 16% to £21.8m, equating to £89 per customer.

The company reported an adjusted Q2 EBITDA margin of 39.9% vs 36.5% in the prior year. This compares to 40.9% in Q117, which also benefited from lower than average marketing costs. Our FY17 EBITDA margin forecast is 35.9%.

Q2 selling and marketing costs were 14.4% of revenues. Management has reiterated that these costs will rise during H2 with significant planned TV campaigns. Our full year selling and marketing estimate is 15.5% of revenues.

Excluding exceptional items, cash conversion was 99% and resulted in a quarterly operating cash flow of £22.3m. After the £94.2m earn-out payment to Gamesys in June, JPJ ended the quarter with an unrestricted cash balance of £24.0m and net debt of £325.3m.

Management has stated that trading into Q3 is solid and our forecasts remain unchanged.

Jackpotjoy (70% of revenues)

JPJ reported another strong quarter across all brands in the Jackpotjoy division, which grew 18% to £52.3m, with an adjusted EBITDA of £24.9m (47.6% margin). Jackpotjoy UK comprised 67% of divisional revenues vs 70% in the prior year. While Jackpotjoy UK and Jackpotjoy Sweden have demonstrated steady organic growth, the most significant increase is from Botemania (Spain) and Starspins, which now comprise 21% of divisional revenues.

Vera&John (23% of revenues)

Gaming revenue from Vera&John increased 30% to £17.4m in Q2 vs the prior year, due to £/€ currency movements. Adjusted EBITDA of £5.1m represents a margin of 29.3%. Due to higher marketing costs, this is lower than the 31.3% Q216 EBITDA margin.

Mandalay (7% of revenues)

Q217 revenues were flat at £5.5m vs the prior year but importantly have grown 10% sequentially. As discussed at Q1 results, management has focused on changing promotional spend to improve operational margins and deposit hold in future periods. Due to lower marketing spend, EBITDA was £2.4m vs £1.6m in Q216.

Exhibit 1: JPJ gaming revenue split*

£m

2016

2017e

2018e

2019e

Jackpotjoy

188.2

208.3

229.7

247.6

growth

55.3%

10.7%

10.3%

7.8%

Vera&John

57.0

64.7

70.6

75.5

growth

35.4%

13.6%

9.0%

7.0%

Mandalay

21.7

21.8

22.0

22.2

growth

1.2%

0.1%

1.0%

1.0%

Total gaming revenue

266.9

294.8

322.3

345.3

growth

38.2%

10.4%

9.3%

7.1%

Source: Jackpotjoy accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Excludes other non-gaming income of £2.1m in 2016 (revenue guarantee and platform migration).

Gaming taxes and regulation

JPJ operates largely in regulated markets and Q217 gaming taxes were £8.5m, 11.3% of total revenues. Going forward, these taxes are expected to rise steadily. Notable increases include:

UK Point of Consumption Tax (POCT): The extension of POCT to include free bets in the UK is expected to be enforced from August 2017. Our forecasts indicate a c 3-4% impact to the UK businesses’ EBITDA (Mandalay and Jackpotjoy UK).

Spain: The 25% tax on Spanish gross gaming revenues will become more relevant as the Botemania revenues grow. We estimate that Botemania comprises c 10% of the Jackpotjoy division.

Sweden: Our forecasts include the expected 18% gaming tax in Sweden from 2019. This will mostly have an impact on the Vera&John division, but we estimate that c 5-6% of the Jackpotjoy division is also derived from Sweden.

Cash flow and balance sheet

Following the £94.2m earn-out payment to Gamesys, JPJ ended the quarter with an unrestricted cash balance of £24.0m and net debt of £325.3m. Including the remaining earn-outs (c £44m to Botemania in June 2018), adjusted net debt/EBITDA ratio was 3.6x, from 4.0x in Q17.

Excluding exceptional items, cash conversion in Q2 was 99% and JPJ currently generates approximately £20-25m operating cash flow per quarter. The company is therefore comfortably positioned to pay its future earn-out obligations. We forecast net debt of £290.2m in 2018, with an adjusted net leverage of 2.7x, reaching the company’s target of 2.0x during 2019.

Under the terms of its covenants, the group is permitted to pay dividends once adjusted leverage reaches 2.75x and the company has stated that it intends to begin paying dividends once the balance sheet is closer to sector average debt levels. We have not included dividends in our forecasts, but we believe cash returns could begin in 2019.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

 

 

£m

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

2019e

Year end 31 December

 

PROFIT & LOSS

 

Revenue

 

 

194.6

269.0

294.8

322.3

345.3

Cost of Sales

(101.4)

(130.7)

(138.1)

(162.8)

(179.5)

Gross Profit

93.3

138.3

156.7

159.5

165.7

EBITDA

 

 

70.4

102.2

105.7

113.8

116.4

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

70.1

101.6

104.3

112.4

115.0

Intangible Amortisation

(50.6)

(55.5)

(55.0)

(55.0)

(55.0)

Exceptional and other items*

(109.7)

(52.5)

(9.7)

(5.2)

(4.9)

Share based payments

(2.9)

(2.3)

(2.1)

(2.5)

(2.5)

Operating Profit

(93.1)

(8.7)

37.5

49.6

52.5

Net Interest

(24.0)

(35.9)

(33.3)

(28.0)

(22.0)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

46.1

65.6

70.9

84.4

93.0

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(114.2)

(40.7)

(1.0)

24.3

33.0

Tax

(0.5)

0.1

(0.7)

(2.5)

(4.5)

Profit After Tax (norm)

45.5

65.7

70.3

81.9

88.5

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(114.8)

(40.6)

(1.7)

21.8

28.5

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

61.2

71.2

74.4

74.5

74.5

EPS - normalised (p)

74.4

92.2

94.4

109.9

118.8

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)

 

73.0

88.4

93.8

109.2

118.0

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

(187.5)

(57.1)

(2.3)

29.2

38.3

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

47.9

51.4

53.2

49.5

48.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

36.2

38.0

35.9

35.3

33.7

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

36.0

37.8

35.4

34.9

33.3

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

674.3

652.3

598.4

545.9

494.5

Intangible Assets

668.8

648.8

593.8

538.8

483.8

Tangible Assets

0.2

0.9

1.9

4.5

8.0

Other long term assets

5.3

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

Current Assets

 

 

63.9

139.0

80.5

70.8

97.8

Stocks

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debtors (incl swaps)

25.6

62.0

35.0

37.0

37.0

Cash

31.8

68.5

36.5

23.8

49.8

Player balances

6.5

8.6

9.0

10.0

11.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(54.3)

(154.9)

(118.7)

(64.4)

(60.7)

Creditors

(23.1)

(41.3)

(40.0)

(34.0)

(34.0)

Short term borrowings

(25.2)

(26.7)

(26.7)

(26.7)

(26.7)

Contingent consideration

(6.0)

(86.9)

(52.0)

(3.8)

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(394.8)

(397.1)

(333.4)

(289.4)

(239.4)

Long term borrowings

(189.3)

(347.4)

(317.4)

(287.4)

(237.4)

Contingent consideration

(203.6)

(33.3)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

(2.0)

(16.4)

(16.0)

(2.0)

(2.0)

Net Assets

 

 

289.0

239.4

226.8

263.0

292.3

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

23.3

83.0

98.7

108.8

114.5

Net Interest

(24.0)

(35.9)

(32.0)

(28.0)

(22.0)

Tax

(0.5)

(1.2)

(0.7)

(2.5)

(4.5)

Capex

(2.5)

(2.5)

(2.5)

(4.0)

(5.0)

Acquisitions (inc earn-outs)

(355.6)

(156.3)

(101.0)

(57.0)

(7.0)

Financing

203.7

(10.0)

35.5

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

(155.6)

(122.9)

(2.0)

17.3

76.0

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

27.1

182.7

305.6

307.5

290.2

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

182.7

305.6

307.5

290.2

214.2

NPV of outstanding earnouts/ other

 

209.5

140.7

70.0

18.0

10.0

Currency swaps

 

 

(4.7)

(38.2)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Adjusted net debt

 

 

387.5

408.1

377.5

308.2

224.2

Source: Jackpotjoy accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Exceptional and other items include transaction-related costs, severance costs, fair value adjustments on contingent consideration and gain on cross-currency swap.

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Jackpotjoy plc and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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New York +1 646 653 7026

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US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Jackpotjoy plc and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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