Management reiterated this ambitious goal, essentially doubling 2024 EBITDA (c €1.08bn), with confidence: ‘We’ve done it before, we can do it again. Metlen is made of metal, full of energy, and built for the future’, Mytilineos proclaimed.
Now sufficient time has passed for proper consideration, this Edison report takes a look at the facts of the case and delivers our perspective on them.
1. Themes and messages
The CMD confirmed that management is embracing new opportunities in critical raw materials, recycling and defence while bolstering its core energy and aluminium businesses. The tone was undoubtedly confident and bold – it repeatedly highlighted Metlen’s ability to ‘anticipate trends’ and execute large-scale projects. It clearly believes it is ahead of the curve and deserves a place in the top tier of European companies.
Management was also at pains to present the strategy as sustainable and future proof, aligning with Europe’s energy transition, circular economy and reindustrialisation themes. Metlen portrayed itself as a resilient industrial player with diversified strengths. All key speakers – from the CEO to the CFO and heads of energy, metals and infrastructure – reiterated Metlen’s integrated model and prudent financial approach. The CMD thus left investors with a clear impression of Metlen’s priorities: deliver the €2bn EBITDA organically, execute the new growth pillars of gallium, circular metallurgy and defence successfully and elevate the company onto the global stage via the London listing.
Edison’s view
The CMD provided investors – specifically the UK market – with an overview of Metlen’s unique blend of complementary businesses, its history and its aggressive growth plans. The market saw Mettlen’s exposure to multiple macro themes including decarbonisation and electrification, as well as introducing it on a more global scale. In our view, Metlen has a unique and synergistic business model across energy and metals, with multiple options for organic growth.
2. Growth strategy and EBITDA roadmap
Metlen outlined a concrete pathway to approximately €2bn in EBITDA by around 2028, driven entirely by organic growth. This is expected to come from all of the business’s core segments – c €360m of additional EBITDA in energy, c €520m in metals and c €100m from infrastructure and concessions. This ‘Big 3’ transformation was presented as the next phase in Metlen’s journey. By the time the €2bn target is reached, Metlen anticipates a well-balanced EBITDA mix across its divisions. Management spoke of ‘game changers’ in the plan – notably new ventures in critical metals, circular metallurgy and defence – to reinforce the company’s established base in renewables, aluminium and infrastructure.
Edison’s view
Doubling EBITDA in the medium term and through purely organic growth is a challenging target for any firm. Metlen gave a highly detailed plan to reach just over €2bn by the end of the medium term (up from just over €1bn in FY24) through a range of initiatives. The market is likely to be cautious in pricing this in immediately, although Metlen has a strong historical track record of significant organic growth using internal cash flow.
3. Financial outlook and capital allocation
In Edison’s opinion, underpinning all initiatives is a clearly communicated financial plan. CFO Eleftheria Kontogianni presented a four-year capital expenditure programme of around €2.5bn (2025–28) to drive Metlen’s growth projects. Annual capex will peak in 2026 at approximately €1.05bn, after which it should taper. Notably, around 84% of this capex is earmarked for growth investments – expansions and new projects – rather than maintenance.
Management stressed that Metlen will self-fund this plan through operating cash flow, without needing to raise equity. It pointed to Metlen’s robust balance sheet – more than €3bn in liquidity and net leverage below 2x EBITDA – as well as a track record of financing growth internally.
‘Metlen has a strong track record of organic growth without requiring fresh capital’, one slide noted, also highlighting conservative debt management.
The company expects to gradually reduce gross debt and leverage ratios, while investing, aided by retained earnings and potential asset rotations such as selling stakes in mature renewables, as it has previously.
Edison’s view
We see no reason why Metlen should not be able to fund its planned capex increase organically over the medium term. This is due to the fact that it has a strong record of financial strength, having self-funded its growth since listing on the Athens Stock Exchange in 1995 and maintaining net leverage below 2x in recent years, despite increased capex rates.
4. A new listing – London calling
Management ensured that shareholder value and listings were key themes of the day. Metlen confirmed that it will proceed with a primary listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), with completion expected in the coming months. The stock will retain a secondary listing in Athens, but London will become the main market. Metlen is set to be the first major UK-listed company trading in euros as its share price will remain denominated in euros despite the move.
Management sees the LSE listing as a ‘landmark’ in Metlen’s evolution as it is expected to boost its international profile and liquidity. The CEO remarked on his personal ties to London (as an LSE alumnus) and noted that ‘if you can make it in Greece, you can make it anywhere’.
The company has engaged advisors, including Morgan Stanley and Citi, and indicated that the listing process is on track, pending regulatory approvals. Metlen also reassured investors that its dividend policy and shareholder returns will remain intact through the growth phase. The firm has consistently paid dividends and indicated no change to that approach.
Edison’s view
Metlen’s listing on the LSE is clearly a personal goal for the chairman, with the aim of bringing a wider investor audience as the company continues to grow globally. The listing seems likely to be watched closely, and Metlen will be well within the UK 100, attracting both indexation interest and attention from UK generalist investors. Its mix of businesses is unique, although the UK market is familiar with integrated aluminium producers, power utilities, energy traders and renewable energy developers. Metlen presents an opportunity to invest in all these sectors within one company.
5. Energy – growth as an ‘integrated utility’
The energy business remains a core pillar, with Metlen leveraging its integrated model of power generation and retail supply. The management team highlighted its position as a leading private utility in Greece, having rapidly grown its electricity retail market share to around 20%. Management’s aim is to achieve a 30% market share by 2028, a goal Edison deems realistic given previous gains.
On the generation side, Metlen operates a diversified fleet of efficient gas-fired plants and renewables, making it a low-cost producer and relatively resilient to market volatility. The company revealed an extensive pipeline in clean energy: 12.5GW of renewable and storage projects under development worldwide (with 1.4GW already in operation), supported by a backlog of €1.6bn in energy transition projects including grids. This puts Metlen in a good position to capture rising demand for renewables, battery storage and grid infrastructure. Management stressed that Metlen’s ‘integrated utility’ approach – spanning generation, trading, distribution and retail – is a competitive advantage, enabling natural hedges and stable margins across energy market cycles.
Edison’s view
Metlen has been at the forefront of Greece’s move towards secure, lower-carbon energy sources – displacing higher-polluting, coal-fired generation with lower-carbon, highly efficient gas turbines and renewables. Its renewables growth has been notable and, unlike some UK renewable investment trusts, it has been able continually to fund this through industrial cash flow and using an asset rotation model. Metlen has also built a skill set along the value chain – battery storage, electrification and data centre infrastructure, all of which are driving grid development at scale.
6. Metals – from aluminium to critical raw materials
Metlen’s metals segment is centred on its aluminium business, but is now expanding into new domains. As Europe’s only fully vertically integrated aluminium producer – from bauxite mining and alumina refining to smelting – it plans to invest in further expanding bauxite and aluminium to maintain cost leadership and supply security.
However, beyond aluminium is Metlen’s push into critical raw materials needed for future technologies. After five years of R&D, Metlen announced that it is ready to produce gallium, a rare semiconductor metal obtained as a by-product of alumina refining. It is building a new gallium extraction unit at its alumina plant, targeting 50 tons per year of high-purity gallium from 2026 onwards. At this volume, Metlen could cover all of Europe’s current gallium demand, an interesting move given recent global supply constraints. Europe is almost entirely dependent on imports of gallium, mostly from China. Management maintains that the gallium project is low risk. It follows a proven pilot, has secured feedstock and ties into EU strategic raw material initiatives.
Edison’s view
The global model of needing China for the mining and processing of critical raw materials is coming to an end, with governments and companies recognising that secure regional and national sources of certain metals is needed. Metlen looks very well positioned to be the dominant and low-cost producer of gallium to Europe.
7. Innovation – circular economics
Perhaps the most ground-breaking announcement was Metlen’s entry into circular metallurgy, to recover valuable metals from industrial waste and residues. The company unveiled a proprietary metallurgical technology – patented after years of research – capable of extracting multiple metals from various residues at recovery rates of up to 99%. This flexible process can handle different feedstocks and produces metals in oxide form with minimal waste.
Metlen sees this as a ‘game changer’ for growth and sustainability, tackling the issue of untapped metals in waste streams. The CMD presentation quantified the opportunity: an estimated $10bn worth of metals per year is locked in untreated industrial residues globally. Management announced plans to scale up from a successful pilot to three new recycling plants – one of which is a large flagship facility – aiming for total output of about 290,000 tons per year of recovered materials in the medium term.
This platform is expected to contribute roughly €220m in EBITDA in the mid-term once at scale. Management hinted that two specific projects – likely the gallium unit and the first big circular metals plant – will together contribute around €400m of the targeted EBITDA growth. These initiatives seek to position Metlen at the forefront of ‘urban mining’ and reinforce its sustainability credentials by turning waste into high-value products.
Edison’s view
The biggest surprise of the CMD was the announcement of new metals separation technology developed by Metlen and its application to identified sources of metallic residues. The planned recovery rates of the technology are indeed high and the timeline for scaling up this technology very ambitious. If the goals for producing metals from these industrial rates are met, the implication is that the technology could have wide applications worldwide.
8. Further expansion – defence manufacturing
Another notable theme was Metlen’s expansion into the defence equipment supply chain as part of its metals segment. The company has a long history of specialist metal fabrication dating back to building bridges and stadium structures, then entering defence sub-contracting in the late 1990s. At the CMD, Metlen announced that it is significantly scaling up its metallurgical defence capacity to tap increased defence spending in Europe.
In addition to two existing plants in Volos, central Greece, Metlen is investing €150–180m to build three new production facilities for defence-related metal components. One new plant is already under construction and all three are slated to be operational in the medium term, effectively bringing Metlen’s defence production sites to a total of five. This added capacity will support its ambitions to supply a greater range of military-grade products – including machined parts and assemblies – both domestically and internationally. Management revealed recent partnerships: an exclusive deal with France’s KNDS to produce the Philoctetes armoured infantry fighting vehicle locally and a joint venture with Italy’s IVECO to bid on the Greek army’s truck fleet renewal. It is also exploring opportunities in emerging areas like autonomous systems.
By elevating defence manufacturing into a distinct business line, Metlen aims to ride the wave of Europe’s rearmament plans. Europe has committed approximately €150bn to defence upgrades, with Greece doubling its 12-year defence budget to €25bn. This move was framed as both a growth avenue and a way to repurpose Metlen’s metallurgical expertise in a high-barrier sector with strong demand.
Edison’s view
Although Metlen has simplified its core message into energy and metals, it has for a long time been in various ways connected with the Greek economy, so it is not surprising that it has a partnership to produce new defence vehicles. Metlen brings its expertise in metals and complex metal structures to the partnership and this looks like a vital part of its growth story.
9. Infrastructure and concessions – addressing the Greek gap
Metlen also provided updates on its infrastructure and concessions arm. Although smaller in terms of earnings, this segment is deemed complementary to Metlen’s core businesses and seeks additional growth. Management pointed out a significant infrastructure investment gap in Greece – an estimated €80bn backlog of projects after years of underinvestment – which is now beginning to be addressed. Spending on public works in Greece is forecast to exceed €18bn pa in the next few years, including many projects via public-private partnerships (PPPs).
Metlen’s construction subsidiary, METKA, is one of only four contractors in Greece certified to execute large-scale projects. In less than two years since the segment was spun off, it has built an order backlog including road, rail, energy and data centre projects. A number of these contracts come via sister company M Concessions, which bids for PPPs and then awards the construction to METKA, creating a synergistic pipeline intended to yield recurring concession revenues to Metlen.
At the CMD, management expressed confidence that infrastructure and concessions will continue to grow steadily, contributing in the order of €100m in additional EBITDA in the mid-term. It stressed that the value of this business lies not only in profits, but also in diversifying Metlen’s portfolio.
Edison’s view
Metlen’s infrastructure and concessions business has been downplayed in its recent rebranding to energy and metals, although its expertise in large-scale construction and infrastructure projects is complementary to its skills as a growing power utility. Greece’s economy is doing well and its infrastructure needs are growing, so it is appropriate for Metlen to target this as part of its growth strategy.
