Topps Tiles is the market-leading specialist retailer/distributor of wall and floor tiles, and associated products such as tools, grouts and adhesives, to its retail, trade and commercial customers in the UK.
Changes in consumer confidence and the health of the housing market are important indicators for the outlook on spend on residential repairs, maintenance and improvement. With increasing exposure to the corporate market, Topps Tiles is also exposed to the expansion and maintenance capital plans of those customers, specifically in the retail, leisure and travel sectors, which are also affected by changes in consumer spending.
Consumer |
Update
Consumer |
Flash note
Consumer |
Update
Consumer |
Update
Paul Forman
Chairman
Robert Parker
CEO
Stephen Hopson
CFO
Forecast net cash (£m)
20.7
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | (7.0) | (9.3) | (18.7) |
Relative | (8.6) | (13.7) | (18.5) |
52 week high/low | 56.4p/41.0p |
Topps Tiles’ (TPT’s) H124 update shows that trading deteriorated further in Q224, following the weakness that began in Q124. Management attributes the decline to the soft external environment as noted by others in the repairs, maintenance and improvement market, other home improvement/DIY retailers and data from the Office for National Statistics. For the individual businesses, the trends remain consistent with previous updates: strong revenue growth for Online Pure Play offset by weakness in Topps Tiles stores, and Parkside continues to see a significant improvement in its financial performance. The company is well positioned for the upturn when it comes given its leading brand, breadth of product and customer service. The share price looks extremely undervalued with a prospective EV/sales multiple of 0.25x versus historical multiples of 0.7x and above in years when TPT reported operating margins that are consistent with current estimates.
Y/E Oct | Revenue (£m) | EBITDA (£m) | PBT (£m) | EPS (fd) (p) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 247.2 | 44.2 | 15.9 | 6.15 | 6.7 | 1.8 |
2023A | 262.7 | 42.0 | 13.8 | 4.59 | 8.9 | 1.9 |
2024E | 249.6 | 35.6 | 7.9 | 2.70 | 15.2 | 2.3 |
2025E | 263.8 | 40.0 | 11.9 | 4.35 | 9.4 | 2.0 |