ProCredit Holding (XETRA: PCZ)

Currency in EUR

Last close As at 09/06/2023

EUR7.04

0.02 (0.28%)

Market capitalisation

EUR415m

ProCredit Holding (PCB) is a Germany-based group operating regional banks across South Eastern and Eastern Europe and Ecuador. The banks focus on SMEs and private middle-income and high earners.

According to its most recent World Economic Outlook released in April 2023, the International Monetary Fund expects c 3–5% GDP growth pa in 2024–28 for PCB’s countries of operations (except for Ukraine). PCB’s in-depth, impact-oriented relationships with SME borrowers (c 90% of the loan book at end-March 2023), prudent credit risk management and solid capital base (CET-1 ratio of 14.1% at end-March 2023) should help it weather the near-term macroeconomic slowdown. Longer term, PCB’s business should be assisted by the low banking sector penetration in the region, scaling potential of its regional banks, an improving deposits to loans ratio and sustained good credit quality of its portfolio, among others.

Sector

Financials

Equity Analyst

Milosz Papst

Milosz Papst

Director, Financials

Key Management

  • Christian Dagrosa

    Management Board Member

  • Dr Gian Marco Felice

    Management Board Member

  • Hubert Spechtenhauser

    Chairman

  • Sandrine Massiani

    Management Board Member

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 14.3 34.9 76.0
Relative 14.0 31.8 59.0
52 week high/low €7.4/€2.6

Financials

ProCredit Holding’s (PCB’s) strong Q123 net profit of €29.5m implies an annualised return on equity (ROE) of 13.3%. This is a result of a healthy annualised net interest margin (NIM) of 3.4% (vs 2.9% in Q122), a c 11% year on-year growth in net fee and commission income and limited cost of risk at 12bp. Importantly, ProCredit Ukraine returned to profitability with an annualised ROE of 21.7% in Q123. PCB’s ROE may be more moderate in the coming quarters as customer deposit rates are repriced, loss allowances pick up and further cost inflation is reflected in the company’s bottom line. That said, PCB’s shares now trade at an undemanding 5.2x our FY23e earnings per share, based on an ROE of 9.3% in FY23e (vs the company’s recently raised guidance of 8–10%).

Y/E Dec Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m) PBT (€m) EPS (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 222.0 N/A 94.5 135.0 5.2 N/A
2022A 264.6 N/A 17.8 28.0 25.1 N/A
2023E 296.5 N/A 102.8 143.9 4.9 N/A
2024E 305.6 N/A 109.8 157.1 4.5 N/A

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