Q&A

In our 4 September 2026 note, we cut our Sylvania Platinum revenue forecasts by 40% to US$238.0m for FY27 and by 37% to US$266.8m for FY28, driven principally by the lower platinum group metal (PGM) price deck and reinforced by our adoption of management's flat near-term production guidance. Rhodium falls from US$16,259/oz to US$8,500/oz and platinum from US$2,968/oz to US$1,700/oz in our FY27 metal price forecasts. Our FY27 normalised EPS forecast falls by 57% to 28.0 US cents, before the recovering price deck lifts FY28 EPS to 33.6 US cents. Lower capital expenditure, the start of JV-related loan repayments and healthy cash generation support a cash balance we forecast to rise from US$67.2m in FY26 to c US$100m in FY27 and c US$161m in FY28.

In final results for the year to 30 June 2026, published on 15 September 2026, Sylvania Platinum reported FY26 net revenue of US$226.3m, up from US$104.2m in FY25, Group EBITDA of US$114.2m and net profit of US$66.4m. Basic EPS rose to 25.66 US cents from 7.73 US cents in FY25. Record Q426 production, a higher full-year average 4E basket price and a growing chrome contribution lifted revenue. Total 4E production of 95,885oz was a new record, up from 81,002oz in FY25 and ahead of guidance of 93,000oz. Prices weakened in Q426, when the average 4E PGM basket price of US$2,299/oz was 25% lower than in Q326 and 25.5% lower than our expectation. The cash balance ended the year at US$67.2m, up 10.4% year on year, after US$31.8m of capital expenditure and the 2p/share interim dividend.

Sylvania Platinum's total FY26 dividend is six pence per share, after it declared a final FY26 dividend of four pence per share in final results for the year to 30 June 2026, published on 15 September 2026. That is more than double the FY25 dividend of 2.75 pence per share. Its dividend policy is to pay a minimum of 40% of adjusted free cash flow, with one-third at the interim and two-thirds at the final. On our lower platinum group metal (PGM) price deck, the policy implies dividends of 6.9 pence per share in FY27 and 9.6 pence in FY28. With the cash balance building well beyond operational requirements from FY29, we see increasing potential for windfall distributions over and above the ordinary dividend. The company also launched a US$2.0m share buyback programme during Q326, and we believe further buybacks remain a live mechanism for distributing surplus cash.

We view Sylvania Platinum's record of growing production per share as central to the investment case, as it shows management can grow the operating base independently of the platinum group metal (PGM) price cycle. 4E production per 1,000 shares rose from 148oz in FY13 to 369oz in FY26, while plant feed rose only 31%. On our estimates, rhodium is the single largest earnings driver, at 33–37% of realised PGM revenue, after payability, in each quarter of FY26. The Iran war has resulted in a downturn in PGM prices; in our 4 September 2026 note we cut our FY27 rhodium price forecast from US$16,259/oz to US$8,500/oz. Long-term production is uncertain because Sylvania depends on feed from host mines for which mineral resource estimates are not available, and the current terms of the JV agreement are limited to 10 years. We believe this uncertainty may affect how investors perceive Sylvania.