Ocean Wilsons Holdings

LN: OCN

£324.5m market cap

917.5p last close

Ocean Wilsons Holdings is an investment company based in Bermuda. It has a controlling shareholding in Wilson Sons, a quoted maritime services company in Brazil, and holds a portfolio of international investments.

Investment summary

We forecast Wilson Sons’ (WSON’s) EBITDA to fall 6% y-o-y this year, still affected by the sluggish Brazilian economy and a tough competitive environment, before rebounding 10% in 2020. However, our Ocean Wilsons (OCN) 2019 forecasts are boosted by good returns in the investment portfolio. The business continues to benefit from the stabilising effect of the diversification of earnings by activity and currency and ownership of its international investment portfolio. The current 42% discount to a look-through valuation is above its long-term average in the mid-20s.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (US$m)
EBITDA (US$m)
PBT (US$m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2017A 496.3 170.0 145.5 221.5 5.3 2.9
2018A 460.2 156.0 60.2 37.6 31.4 2.7
2019E 406.3 143.4 74.7 107.0 11.0 2.8
2020E 441.8 151.8 65.5 82.1 14.4 2.8
Industry outlook

The key headwinds that affected WSON’s business in 2018 have largely continued into 2019: weak growth in the Brazilian economy, a slow oil and gas sector, price pressure in port towage and excess capacity in the offshore vessel businesses. As a result, we expect WSON’s FY19 EBITDA to fall 6% y-o-y; this is equivalent to a fall of 15% if we removed the impact of IFRS 16 on 2019 numbers. We see the pressures remaining for the rest of the year before improving in 2020.

Last updated on 11/12/2019
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (US$m) 456.1
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 59
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 4.9 0.3 (18.4)
Relative* 5.9 1.0 (24.3)
52-week high/low 1280.0p/810.0p
*% relative to local index
Key management
Keith Middleton FD

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