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Kcell Joint Stock Company

Kazakhstan Stock Exchange: KCEL

Market Cap$1050m

Last Close $5.25

Kcell Joint Stock Company (Kcell) is a mobile operator in Kazakhstan and a listed subsidiary of Kazakhtelecom (KT), a state-owned incumbent with a 70% share of the market.

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Investment summary

Q1 results published on 30 April saw service revenue growth (ex bulk SMS) of 3.4% y-o-y and handset revenue sales of 50.9%, resulting in total y-o-y growth of 9.9%. EBITDA, excluding non-recurring items, rose by 21.3% to KZT19.4bn and implying a 44.1% margin. The company terminated its GDR programme on 12 June.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (KZTbn)
EBITDA (KZTbn)
PBT (KZTbn)
EPS (fd) (KZT)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2019A 156.7 64.4 23.2 50.0 44.0 N/A
2020A 174.7 72.1 31.6 88.0 25.0 N/A
2021E 189.0 78.7 39.4 148.0 14.9 N/A
2022E 196.6 81.5 40.5 158.0 13.9 N/A
Industry outlook

Kcell’s prospects have been transformed following KT taking a 75% stake in the business. Consolidation is helping to sustain a recovery in the Kazakhstan mobile market, new management successfully introduced a strategy targeting higher margin segments and Kcell’s major shareholder is now the dominant national telecom player. 2019 saw the company deliver its first growth in service revenues in five years. With little near-term risk of regulatory intervention or a resurgence in aggressive competition, the current market structure appears sustainable.

Last updated on 09/06/2021
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (KZTbn) 38.5
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 43
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (2.8) (11.0) (6.3)
Relative* N/A N/A N/A
52-week high/low US$7.7/US$4.0
*% relative to local index
Key management
Kaspars Kukelis CEO