Kcell

Kcell Joint Stock Company

LN: KCEL

$472999.9m market cap

$5.85 last close

Kcell Joint Stock Company (Kcell) is a mobile operator in Kazakhstan and a listed subsidiary of Kazakhtelecom (KT), a state-owned incumbent with a 70% share of the market. Consolidation is delivering dramatic improvements in the market and as a subsidiary of the dominant operator, Kcell is well positioned to benefit.

Investment summary

A change in market structure and strategy has transformed Kcell’s prospects. It delivered a c 80% rise in underlying profits and cash flow in FY19 and a 31% y-o-y rise in adjusted EBIT in Q1. We assume the pace of profit growth slows in the remainder of FY20 as COVID-19 measures and a slump in the oil price affect economic activity. However, beyond FY20 scope for further market consolidation should ensure that healthy profit and cash flow growth resumes.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (KZTbn)
EBITDA (KZTbn)
PBT (KZTbn)
EPS (fd) (KZT)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2018A 149.7 50.9 15.4 58.0 42.5 13.8
2019A 156.7 63.5 23.5 104.0 23.7 11.5
2020E 159.5 66.4 28.5 108.0 22.8 7.4
2021E 169.7 69.9 31.0 124.0 19.9 7.3
Sector
TMT
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (KZTbn) 28.6
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 33
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 8.8 9.0 29.0
Relative* 4.8 (0.5) 25.1
52-week high/low US$2365.0/US$1773.0
*% relative to local index
Key management
Kaspars Kukelis CEO