Auriant Mining

OMX: AUR

SEK509m market cap

SEK5.16 last close

Auriant Mining is a Swedish junior gold mining company focused on Russia. It has two producing mines (Tardan and Solcocon), one advanced exploration property (Kara-Beldyr) and one early stage exploration property (Uzhunzhul).

Investment summary

Auriant’s Tardan plant has been remodelled to a single carbon-in-leach process, which is forecast to improve metallurgical recoveries and reduce total cash costs by circa a third each from 18 November when it was commissioned. At the same time, it is completing a DFS on Kara-Beldyr and, combined, the two are expected to achieve management’s goal of c 3t (96.5koz) of gold output pa from FY24. Production guidance of 900–940kg Au for FY20 compares with production of 689kg in FY19, 278kg (1,112kg annualised) in Q120 and our full-year forecast of 953kg.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (US$m)
EBITDA (US$m)
PBT (US$m)
EPS (fd) (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2018A 17.4 (1.7) (10.2) (10.8) N/A 12.8
2019A 29.8 7.2 (2.2) (1.2) N/A 5.9
2020E 57.0 29.3 15.8 9.9 5.6 3.0
2021E 43.0 19.9 13.1 5.8 9.5 4.4
Industry outlook

On the basis that Auriant raises US$40m in equity at SEK3.69/share, we estimate that it is capable of generating average cash flows of US$49.2m and EPS of 21.0c pa in the period FY25–33. Discounted at 10% pa, we value the resulting (maximum potential) stream of dividends to shareholders at US$0.72/sh. In the meantime, the company is actively managing its dispute with Rosprirodnadzor (reported August 2019). Q1 results are scheduled for 29 May.

Last updated on 02/07/2020
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (US$m) 40.8
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 137
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 3.2 69.2 98.5
Relative* 0.8 36.7 86.2
52-week high/low SEK5.2/SEK2.6
*% relative to local index
Key management
Peter Daresbury Chairman
Sergey Ustimenko CEO
Katerina Popova Head of PR&IR