£954.9m market cap
3420p last close
4imprint is the leading direct marketer of promotional products in the US, Canada, the UK and Ireland. In FY18, 97% of revenues were generated in the US and Canada.
Investment summary
4imprint’s pre-close update indicates trading in the later weeks of the full year continued strong, with FY19 results set to be at the higher end of the market forecast range. Revenue (+17%) was slightly above our estimate, which we raised by $10m at the November trading update. The $41.0m net cash at the year end was also a little ahead of our forecast of $39.5m. We have initiated FY21 forecasts, which show the group exceeding management’s $1bn revenue target a year earlier than originally anticipated. The large scale of the addressable market leaves plenty of opportunity for growth, with potential for further share price appreciation.
Y/E Dec |
Revenue (US$m) |
EBITDA (US$m) |
PBT (US$m) |
EPS (c) |
P/E (x) |
P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017A | 627.5 | 45.1 | 42.5 | 107.7 | 41.4 | 28.0 |
| 2018A | 738.4 | 48.5 | 46.1 | 133.5 | 33.4 | 27.4 |
| 2019E | 855.1 | 58.1 | 54.6 | 152.4 | 29.3 | 21.0 |
| 2020E | 950.0 | 64.1 | 60.8 | 169.5 | 26.3 | 19.5 |
Industry outlook
The PPAI, an industry body, estimates the value of the US promotional products distribution market at US$25bn. 4imprint is the largest distributor in this large and diverse market, yet has market share of around 3%. Q219 sales for the market were up 5.4%, having increased by 4.9% in FY18. 4imprint has consistently grown faster than the market, building share through its reputation for quality, reliability and customer service. There are no direct comparators, as the other larger players have differentiated business models.
Last updated on 23/01/2020
Sector |
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| TMT |
Share price graph
Balance sheet |
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|---|---|
| Forecast net cash (US$m) | 39.5 |
| Forecast gearing ratio (%) | N/A |
Price performance
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1m |
3m |
12m |
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Key management |
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| Kevin Lyons-Tarr | CEO |
| David Seekings | FD |
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