Stock of the month – March

Why this stock?

In focus: Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) has announced a transformational $4.3bn silver streaming agreement with BHP, doubling its exposure to the Antamina mine in Peru from 33.75% to 67.5% of all silver produced. The deal (the most valuable streaming transaction ever) will add approximately 6.0Moz of silver per year for the first five years and 5.4Moz over the first 10 years, boosting 2026 production by an estimated 11.3% on a pro forma basis.

Momentum: FY25 production of 692k gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) exceeded the upper end of guidance (670k GEOs), with 416koz of gold and 22.5Moz of silver. WPM is guiding for 860k–940k GEOs in 2026 and forecasts growth of c 50% to 1.2m GEOs by 2030, positioning the company as the highest-growth name in the streaming space.

Valuation: Trading at a trailing 12-month P/E of c 66x, WPM commands a premium to the S&P 500, reflecting the low-risk streaming model, 77% net profit margins and exceptional operating leverage to rising metals prices. Edison’s FY26 EPS estimate at current metals prices rises to $3.70 per share, implying a forward P/E closer to 38x. Edison’s capital asset pricing model-based terminal valuation at historical gold price growth rates implies a value of $192.87 per share, well above the current share price.

Catalysts ahead: The BHP Antamina stream closing is expected on or around 1 April 2026. FY25 full results are due on 12 March 2026. The new CEO, Haytham Hodaly, is anticipated to take the reins from co-founder Randy Smallwood (who moves to chairman) on 31 March 2026. Also, multiple development projects are ramping up, including Blackwater, Goose, Platreef, Mineral Park and Koné.

What is next?

Key takeaway: A major rotation is underway from AI and software stocks into real assets. As AI erodes the moats of digital-first businesses, investors are redirecting capital into commodities, precious metals and infrastructure (sectors that cannot be replicated by AI). Gold at c $4,940/oz and silver at c $74/oz reflect accelerating de-dollarisation and structural supply deficits. WPM, with just 44 employees generating a $66bn market capitalisation, is the purest-play vehicle for this theme.

Drivers: The BHP Antamina deal is immediately accretive and needle moving. Management forecasts over $3.2bn in operating cash flow in 2026 and over $10bn through 2028, providing ample capacity to service the $2.4bn net debt at closing. At 6.5% of total market capitalisation, the deal is priced for strong value creation. Approximately 76% of 2026 production will come from mines operating in the first quartile of their cost curves.

Current view: WPM has more than tripled over the past two years and is up c 113% over the past 12 months. Silver has been in a structural supply deficit since 2021, with the Silver Institute estimating supply fell 117.7Moz short of demand in 2025. Central bank gold purchases totalled 863t in 2025, supporting the broader precious metals complex. Edison’s Q325 note upgraded FY25 EPS forecasts by 1.5% following record quarterly results.

What’s next: Watch for FY25 full results (12 March 2026), BHP Antamina stream closing (c 1 April 2026), continued ramp-up at Blackwater (33% capacity expansion targeted by end-2026), Goose reaching nameplate and further developments at Platreef, Mineral Park and Koné. Six development projects are scheduled to come online over the next 24 months.