Equity strategy and market outlook – February 2021

In this month’s strategy piece, Alastair believes that global markets have hesitated as yields on government bonds rise from ultra-low levels as economic recovery beckons. Despite the high-profile distortions arguably introduced by the resurgence in retail trading and ultra-low interest rates, we believe ‘value’ is poised for a recovery over recently outperforming growth stocks as lockdowns in developed markets are released. Relative earnings momentum is starting to favour the real economy as upgrades become concentrated in traditional sectors such as oil, mining and banks. We remain neutral on equities as attention turns to a sector rotation from growth towards value. Still-positive earnings momentum suggests the conditions are not in place for a large equity market drawdown however. Global bond yields are likely to face continued but steady upward pressure. Nominal yields may have risen during February but the still ultra-low 10-year real rate on offer suggests that should the recovery broaden then government bond markets are likely to remain under pressure and we remain underweight.

Download PDF