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Research: Healthcare
MagForce is making progress in its strategy to drive the uptake of NanoTherm, its thermal ablation treatment approved in Europe for brain tumours (GBM). Despite the impact of COVID-19, 17 GBM patients were treated during H120; management expects to sustain this in H220 (c 30–40 in FY20) and triple it in FY21 (c 90–120). Safety data from the US study for prostate cancer are still expected in Q420; however, the impact of COVID-19 means launch is now expected in H221 (vs the prior Q221 forecast). Growth in European sales, driven by reimbursement and the ongoing roll-out of devices, and the potential launch in the US will be key to crystallising value. MagForce’s market cap is €70m with an EV of €92m.
Written by
Susie Jana
MagForce |
Winds of change
Healthcare equipment & services |
Scale research report - Update
13 November 2020 |
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Business description
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MagForce is making progress in its strategy to drive the uptake of NanoTherm, its thermal ablation treatment approved in Europe for brain tumours (GBM). Despite the impact of COVID-19, 17 GBM patients were treated during H120; management expects to sustain this in H220 (c 30–40 in FY20) and triple it in FY21 (c 90–120). Safety data from the US study for prostate cancer are still expected in Q420; however, the impact of COVID-19 means launch is now expected in H221 (vs the prior Q221 forecast). Growth in European sales, driven by reimbursement and the ongoing roll-out of devices, and the potential launch in the US will be key to crystallising value. MagForce’s market cap is €70m with an EV of €92m.
European roll-out gathers momentum
Revenues from NanoTherm have seen an uptick in growth, with 11 patients treated in Germany and six in Poland in H120; a mobile ‘plug-and-treat’ solution means the lead time to start patient treatment in new centres has shortened significantly. New treatment centres are expected to open in Germany in 2020 or 2021. The planned HTA application implies federal reimbursement in Germany could start during H221 and could be the catalyst for meaningful top-line growth and sustainable profitability from 2022. The planned opening of sites in Italy and Spain in 2021 will be delayed until pandemic headwinds abate and management will focus on other EU member states that have been less affected by COVID-19.
US prostate cancer study progressing
During H120, MagForce started the next stage in its pivotal prostate cancer study required by the US FDA for approval and to establish efficacy in thermally ablating prostate cancer lesions. Crucial safety data are expected in Q420 for the new streamlined procedure and will enable a go/no-go decision to start commercial preparations ahead of efficacy data and FDA approval (2021). Positive results would provide a key value inflection as long-term growth depends on the US.
Financials: H120 results
MagForce reported net debt of €22.0m (end-2019: €16.5m) at 30 June 2020. In June, the first €2.5m tranche of a €15.0m convertible bond facility (with Yorkville) was disbursed and will enable the continued commercial expansion plans. Revenues increased significantly during H120 to €384k (H119: €26k) of which €212k relates to commercial treatments in Germany. MagForce reported a net loss of €4.9m in H120 (H119: €4.9m loss). Our forecasts and valuation are under review.
Edison estimates
Source: MagForce accounts |
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Edison Investment Research provides qualitative research coverage on companies in the Deutsche Börse Scale segment in accordance with section 36 subsection 3 of the General Terms and Conditions of Deutsche Börse AG for the Regulated Unofficial Market (Freiverkehr) on Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (as of 1 March 2017). Two to three research reports will be produced per year. Research reports do not contain Edison analyst financial forecasts.
Research: Real Estate
The Q221 trading update for the three months ended 30 September 2020 shows Civitas Social Housing continuing to perform in line with expectations, with no COVID-19 impact on rent collections or property valuations. Quarterly DPS has continued uninterrupted, while continuing moderate growth in the portfolio and rent roll delivers 100% cover by EPRA earnings on a run-rate basis.
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