Currency in USD
Last close As at 09/06/2023
USD0.79
▲ 0.09 (12.29%)
Market capitalisation
USD221m
Research: Metals & Mining
The Metals Company (TMC) has been exploring nickel-rich nodule deposits on the deep seabed of the western Pacific. We estimate TMC’s total estimated nickel resources of 16.1Mt could provide the critical battery metals for c 230 million cars. The key catalyst for TMC will be the award of a licence for its 3.8Mt NORI-D project, contingent upon adoption of exploitation legislation for the deep sea. Additional financing and the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are positives for TMC and the sector.
The Metals Company |
Two more positive steps |
Q2 and additional financing |
Metals and mining |
16 August 2022 |
Share price performance Business description
Analyst
The Metals Company is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
The Metals Company (TMC) has been exploring nickel-rich nodule deposits on the deep seabed of the western Pacific. We estimate TMC’s total estimated nickel resources of 16.1Mt could provide the critical battery metals for c 230 million cars. The key catalyst for TMC will be the award of a licence for its 3.8Mt NORI-D project, contingent upon adoption of exploitation legislation for the deep sea. Additional financing and the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are positives for TMC and the sector.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/21 |
0.0 |
(107.9) |
(52.7) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/22e |
0.0 |
(40.0) |
(14.2) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23e |
0.0 |
(40.0) |
(9.1) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
TMC has announced further financing from a committed private investment in public equity through the issuance of 38m shares at $0.80. 70% of the raise is from existing holders, including strategic partner Allseas and TMC Chairman and CEO Gerard Barron. The company believes this provides sufficient funds for at least the next 12 months, through to July 2023 when the regulatory body, the International Seabed Authority (ISA), is due to adopt the proposed exploitation regulations for the deep sea, where TMC is proposing to collect polymetallic nodules from the seabed.
The net loss for Q222 of $12.4m, which was reduced from $29.1m in Q221, included exploration and evaluation expenses of $9.9m (Q221: $18.2m) and general and administrative expenses of $8.3m (Q221: $10.4m). Net cash was $46.3m ($69.0m at the end of Q1) prior to the newly announced financing.
The environmental side of the US IRA includes a number of incentives for electric vehicles (EVs). New EVs will benefit from tax credits of up to $7,500 ($4,000 for a used vehicle). These incentives carry increasing requirements for battery metals to come from countries with which the US has a free trade agreement and for components not to be sourced from a foreign entity of concern. This suggests that metals and components from key producing countries such as Russia and Indonesia will increasingly carry an effective price penalty for US OEMs. Other incentives include $30bn tax credits to accelerate domestic manufacturing of environmental technologies, including batteries and critical minerals processing.
Our valuation, based on risked stages of the NORI-D project, remains unchanged from our initiation note issued in July 2022. The additional funding is reassuring and the US IRA clearly provides a positive backdrop, but key is the ISA’s adoption of mining regulation and the subsequent award of a licence to TMC.
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Research: Metals & Mining
Underlying net earnings in Q222 were 4.4% above our forecasts. In general terms, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) produced 162,569 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) during the quarter, which was 4.0% below our prior forecast, but sold 170,371 GEOs (which was 11.6% above) as a result of a 27,412 GEO draw down in the number of ounces produced but not yet delivered. Although WPM reduced its output guidance for FY22 as a consequence of lower production at Salobo and Stillwater and the sale of its Keno Hill stream, this was only to levels that Edison had already broadly anticipated in its last note (681.5koz GEOs cf updated guidance of 640–680koz GEOs). Given intervening precious metals price movements, this has actually resulted in us modestly increasing our financial forecasts for FY22.
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