Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP0.71
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
GBP176m
Research: Industrials
Accsys will discontinue the Tricoya project in Hull, England, as it has not found a financial or strategic partner to finalise the construction of the plant. The project started in 2017 and was put on hold in November 2022 after several problems during construction. Accsys will write down the remaining book value of €20m and will need €4.5m for the discontinuation and winding up of the plant. Although this is a setback for the company’s strategy to boost Tricoya sales, Accsys will continue to supply Accoya material to produce Tricoya panels. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) comes in lower at €0.92 as we have taken out the option value for Hull, which is not fully compensated for by the absence of running costs for this plant.
Accsys Technologies |
Tricoya project to be discontinued |
Project update |
General industries |
25 September 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Accsys Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Accsys will discontinue the Tricoya project in Hull, England, as it has not found a financial or strategic partner to finalise the construction of the plant. The project started in 2017 and was put on hold in November 2022 after several problems during construction. Accsys will write down the remaining book value of €20m and will need €4.5m for the discontinuation and winding up of the plant. Although this is a setback for the company’s strategy to boost Tricoya sales, Accsys will continue to supply Accoya material to produce Tricoya panels. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) comes in lower at €0.92 as we have taken out the option value for Hull, which is not fully compensated for by the absence of running costs for this plant.
Year end |
Revenue |
EBITDA* |
Net profit* |
EPS* |
EV/sales |
EV/EBITDA |
03/23 |
162.0 |
22.9 |
9.5 |
0.05 |
1.1 |
7.6 |
03/24 |
136.2 |
4.8 |
(10.2) |
(0.04) |
1.3 |
20.8 |
03/25e |
137.4 |
10.0 |
(4.8) |
(0.02) |
1.1 |
11.8 |
03/26e |
152.4 |
18.3 |
5.3 |
0.02 |
0.9 |
7.0 |
Note: *EBITDA, net profit and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. EBITDA includes 60% share of Accoya USA joint venture.
Tricoya product range will continue
Accsys will discontinue the Tricoya project in Hull, in line with previous guidance that a decision would be made before the end of September. This project has been on hold since November 2022 and the company has been investigating financial solutions to continue the project. More recently, the company hired a financial adviser, but no strategic or financial partner has been found to fund the estimated additional capex of around €35m to finalise the project over a period of nine to 12 months. With no specific Tricoya production capacity in place, Accsys will now continue to supply Accoya material from its Arnhem plant to produce Tricoya panels, thus the decision does not mean the end of the Tricoya product range. Offtake partners Medite and Finsa will continue to develop demand for Tricoya and a Tricoya plant sometime in the future cannot be ruled out.
Financial impact
Accsys will write down the remaining value of the Tricoya project of €20m (non-cash) and will need €4.5m for the discontinuation and winding up of the Tricoya plant, which it will take as an exceptional charge in H125. This amount includes the remaining running costs, thereby saving €1.5m in H225 and €3m in FY26. Accsys will now be fully focused on realising its goal of reaching 100,000m³ in FY27 in Accoya sales volumes in Arnhem, the Netherlands, and Kingsport, US, combined.
Valuation now leaving out option value for Hull
We do not make any adjustments to our revenue forecasts as we did not include specific forecasts for Hull in our model. We did, however, include the annual operational running costs up to FY26, which now will disappear from H225. Our DCF model is based on specific forecasts for the Arnhem plant and we add a separate value for the Accoya USA joint venture (JV), pointing to a value per share of €0.92 (previously €0.91). The option value for Hull of €0.07/share has been taken out, leaving Accsys’s value per share at €0.92 (previously €0.98).
EBITDA estimates raised
Following the company’s decision to discontinue the Tricoya project in Hull, we have left our revenue estimates unchanged as these did not include any contribution from the project, which has been on hold since November 2022. Since the decision to put the project on hold, Accsys has incurred running costs to keep the project viable until a decision had been made on whether to continue. Accsys will take an exceptional charge of €4.5m in H125 for the discontinuation and winding up of the Tricoya plant, including the remaining running costs. This means that from H225 there will no longer be any running costs in the company’s underlying EBITDA, which saves Accsys €1.5m in H225 and €3m in FY26. We have raised our normalised EDITDA forecasts for FY25 and FY26 accordingly (see Exhibit 1) as we had previously included running costs up to FY26. The reported figures will include the write down of the book value of the Tricoya project of €20m.
The company’s full focus will now be on realising its goal of reaching around 100,000m³ in sales volume by the end of FY27, reflecting around 80% growth compared to FY24. This includes the volumes of Accoya USA, although this JV is equity accounted for, thus the P&L will only show the volumes from the Arnhem plant.
Exhibit 1: Change in P&L estimates
€m |
FY24 |
FY25e |
FY26e |
||||
Actual |
Old |
New |
Change |
Old |
New |
Change |
|
Sales |
136.2 |
137.4 |
137.4 |
0.0% |
152.4 |
152.4 |
0.0% |
Gross margin |
30.0% |
29.8% |
29.5% |
31.3% |
31.1% |
||
EBITDA normalised |
4.8 |
8.5 |
10.0 |
18.0% |
15.3 |
18.3 |
19.8% |
EBITDA margin |
6.3% |
8.1% |
9.3% |
11.0% |
13.0% |
||
Net profit (reported) |
(17.9) |
(7.5) |
(28.2) |
N/A |
2.6 |
5.3 |
104.8% |
Net profit (normalised) |
(10.2) |
(7.5) |
(4.8) |
N/A |
2.6 |
5.3 |
104.8% |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: EBITDA normalised for amortisation and exceptional items and includes the 60% share in the Accoya USA JV.
Our new estimates still assume a revenue increase of 1% y-o-y in FY25, followed by stronger growth of 11% y-o-y in FY26, driven by improving market conditions and the contribution of new clients following increased sales and marketing efforts. EBITDA growth is now much stronger due to the absence of the running costs related to the Tricoya project.
Valuation
For the valuation of Accsys we use a DCF model, as a peer group comparison is not useful in the absence of other listed companies with comparable business profiles. We base our model on specific forecasts for the four reactors in Arnhem and we add a separate DCF value for the Accoya plant in the US, as this is owned by the 60%/40% JV with Eastman Chemical Company and as such is not fully consolidated.
We previously added an option value for the Tricoya project in Hull of €0.07/share, but that has now been taken out. On the other hand, due to the decision to discontinue the Tricoya project the company saves the running costs for this project, which we had previously included up to FY26. This lifts the value for the continuing businesses by €0.01, resulting in a total value per share for Accsys of €0.92 (previously €0.98).
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
€m |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25e |
FY26e |
Year end 31 March |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||
Revenue (reported) |
120.9 |
162.0 |
136.2 |
137.4 |
152.4 |
Gross Profit |
36.0 |
55.2 |
40.9 |
40.5 |
47.5 |
EBITDA underlying, Accsys definition (incl share Accoya USA JV) |
10.4 |
22.9 |
4.8 |
10.0 |
18.3 |
EBITDA underlying, excl share Accoya USA JV |
10.6 |
23.6 |
8.5 |
12.7 |
19.8 |
EBITDA reported |
10.3 |
22.1 |
7.3 |
8.2 |
19.8 |
Depreciation & Amortisation |
(6.2) |
(8.3) |
(9.6) |
(9.6) |
(9.2) |
EBIT normalised |
4.2 |
15.3 |
(1.0) |
3.1 |
10.6 |
Exceptionals (Edison definition) |
(0.1) |
(87.5) |
(8.2) |
(24.5) |
0.0 |
EBIT reported |
4.1 |
(72.2) |
(9.2) |
(21.4) |
10.6 |
Net Interest |
(2.3) |
6.1 |
(3.8) |
(4.3) |
(3.5) |
Results of associates/Accoya USA JV |
0.0 |
(1.0) |
(4.1) |
(5.1) |
(1.1) |
Profit Before Tax |
1.8 |
(67.1) |
(17.1) |
(30.7) |
6.0 |
Reported tax |
(1.0) |
(2.8) |
(0.8) |
2.6 |
(0.7) |
Profit After Tax |
0.7 |
(69.9) |
(17.9) |
(28.2) |
5.3 |
Minority interests |
1.6 |
30.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Net profit (normalised) |
1.9 |
9.5 |
(10.2) |
(4.8) |
5.3 |
Net profit (reported) |
2.4 |
(39.0) |
(17.9) |
(28.2) |
5.3 |
Average number of shares (m) |
190.4 |
210.7 |
227.9 |
239.9 |
240.4 |
Average number of shares, diluted (m) |
198.9 |
219.1 |
234.9 |
246.9 |
247.4 |
EPS normalised (€) |
0.01 |
0.05 |
(0.04) |
(0.02) |
0.02 |
EPS normalised diluted (€) |
0.01 |
0.04 |
(0.04) |
(0.02) |
0.02 |
EPS reported (€) |
0.01 |
(0.19) |
(0.08) |
(0.12) |
0.02 |
DPS (€) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Revenue growth |
21.1% |
34.1% |
-16.0% |
0.9% |
10.9% |
Gross Margin |
29.8% |
34.0% |
30.0% |
29.5% |
31.1% |
Normalised EBITDA Margin |
8.8% |
14.6% |
6.3% |
9.3% |
13.0% |
Normalised Operating Margin |
3.5% |
9.4% |
-0.8% |
2.3% |
7.0% |
Reported EBIT margin |
3.4% |
-44.5% |
-6.8% |
-15.5% |
7.0% |
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||
Fixed Assets |
195.3 |
151.4 |
138.9 |
120.9 |
116.4 |
Intangible Assets |
10.8 |
10.5 |
10.0 |
9.6 |
9.2 |
Tangible Assets |
181.3 |
110.1 |
97.2 |
71.6 |
66.5 |
Investments & other |
3.2 |
30.9 |
31.7 |
39.7 |
40.7 |
Current Assets |
79.8 |
75.1 |
71.0 |
67.7 |
82.3 |
Stocks |
20.4 |
29.9 |
25.7 |
26.0 |
28.8 |
Debtors |
13.2 |
14.4 |
14.0 |
14.9 |
16.5 |
Other current assets |
4.2 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
Cash & cash equivalents |
42.1 |
26.6 |
27.4 |
22.8 |
32.5 |
Current Liabilities |
45.7 |
42.5 |
26.2 |
25.7 |
27.4 |
Creditors |
16.7 |
17.9 |
11.8 |
11.9 |
12.9 |
Other current liabilities |
16.4 |
14.0 |
13.7 |
13.1 |
13.8 |
Short term borrowings |
12.7 |
10.5 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
Long Term Liabilities |
56.5 |
61.6 |
65.0 |
65.0 |
65.0 |
Long term borrowings |
56.5 |
60.2 |
63.9 |
63.9 |
63.9 |
Other long term liabilities |
0.0 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
Shareholders' equity |
172.9 |
122.5 |
118.8 |
98.0 |
106.4 |
Minority interests |
35.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Balance sheet total |
275.1 |
226.5 |
210.0 |
188.7 |
198.8 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
7.3 |
28.2 |
3.6 |
8.2 |
19.8 |
Working capital |
(9.2) |
(6.1) |
(1.8) |
(1.8) |
(3.2) |
Exceptional & other |
1.4 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
Tax |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
2.6 |
(0.7) |
Net interest |
2.9 |
(6.1) |
3.8 |
(3.5) |
(3.0) |
Net operating cash flow |
2.5 |
16.6 |
7.1 |
7.0 |
14.4 |
Capex |
(45.3) |
(30.2) |
(3.5) |
(3.6) |
(3.7) |
Investments in financial assets/joint ventures |
(3.8) |
(29.0) |
(4.9) |
(8.0) |
(1.0) |
Equity financing |
34.9 |
19.2 |
12.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Other |
(3.3) |
6.6 |
(4.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Net Cash Flow |
(15.0) |
(16.8) |
6.9 |
(4.6) |
9.7 |
Opening net debt/(cash), including lease liabilities |
12.2 |
27.3 |
44.1 |
37.1 |
41.7 |
Closing net debt/(cash), including lease liabilities |
27.3 |
44.1 |
37.1 |
41.7 |
32.0 |
Source: Accsys Technologies, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
Alongside its H124 results, Esker confirmed that Bridgepoint, in association with General Atlantic and management shareholders, is proposing a cash public tender offer for the company at €262 per share. This represents a 30% premium to the unaffected share price on 8 August. The supervisory board has welcomed the principle of the offer. If the tender offer is successful (ie 60% or more of shares are tendered), the deal is expected to complete in late Q424 or early Q125.