Currency in GBP
Last close As at 26/05/2023
GBP7.84
▲ 1.00 (0.13%)
Market capitalisation
GBP755m
Research: TMT
Trading has improved through the course of H221, with order intake for the four months to the end of January up 10% y-o-y on an organic basis and average monthly sales up 4% compared to H121. As discoverIE expects to report underlying EPS at the upper end of consensus forecasts, we have raised our FY21 forecasts, driving a 4% EPS upgrade.
discoverIE Group |
Trading strengthens through H221 |
Trading update |
Tech hardware & equipment |
10 February 2021 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
discoverIE Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
Trading has improved through the course of H221, with order intake for the four months to the end of January up 10% y-o-y on an organic basis and average monthly sales up 4% compared to H121. As discoverIE expects to report underlying EPS at the upper end of consensus forecasts, we have raised our FY21 forecasts, driving a 4% EPS upgrade.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
Dil. EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
03/19 |
438.9 |
28.4 |
28.4 |
9.6 |
24.6 |
1.4 |
03/20 |
466.4 |
34.6 |
31.8 |
3.0 |
22.0 |
0.4 |
03/21e |
448.6 |
29.4 |
23.9 |
10.4 |
29.3 |
1.5 |
03/22e |
486.5 |
32.4 |
26.4 |
10.7 |
26.6 |
1.5 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Improved trading H2 to date
For the first four months of H221, discoverIE saw trading continue to strengthen, with underlying earnings expected towards the upper end of market expectations. Over this period, average monthly sales increased 4% compared to H121. On an organic basis, Design & Manufacturing sales were 3% lower y-o-y, while Custom Supply sales were 10% lower y-o-y, with group sales down 5% y-o-y. Year to date, group orders and sales are down 5% at constant exchange rates (CER) and down 4% on a reported basis. Phoenix America (acquired in October 2020) is performing well and in line with expectations, and the company expects to close the Limitor acquisition later this month. Gearing at the end of January stood at 1.1x and, once the Limitor acquisition is taken into account, rises to 1.35x. This is below the target range of 1.5–2.0x, providing good funding headroom for acquisitions.
Order intake returns to growth
Order intake has strengthened over the period, with orders up 10% y-o-y on an organic basis and a book-to-bill of 1.17:1. The group order book of £162m is 2% higher y-o-y CER and up 14% compared to the end of H121. To reflect stronger trading, we have raised our FY21 forecasts, resulting in an increase in underlying diluted EPS of 4%.
Valuation: Discount to peers reducing
The stock is trading at a c 13% discount to its peer group on an FY21e P/E basis, down from 18% when we last wrote. Aside from the continuing recovery in customer demand, we view the key trigger for earnings and share price upside to be progress in increasing the weighting of the business towards the higher-growth, higher-margin D&M business, which in turn should move the company closer to its 12.5% medium-term operating margin target. The stock is supported by a dividend yield approaching 2%.
Changes to forecasts
Exhibit 1: Changes to forecasts
£m |
FY21e |
FY22e new |
||||||
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
|
Revenues |
445.7 |
448.6 |
0.6% |
(3.8%) |
486.5 |
486.5 |
0.0% |
8.5% |
Design & manufacturing |
291.0 |
293.9 |
1.0% |
(1.4%) |
323.3 |
323.3 |
0.0% |
10.0% |
Custom supply |
154.7 |
154.7 |
0.0% |
(8.2%) |
163.2 |
163.2 |
0.0% |
5.5% |
Gross margin |
33.7% |
33.7% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
33.8% |
33.8% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
EBITDA |
45.3 |
46.4 |
2.3% |
(8.9%) |
49.7 |
49.8 |
0.0% |
7.3% |
EBITDA margin |
10.2% |
10.3% |
0.2% |
(0.6%) |
10.2% |
10.2% |
0.0% |
(0.1%) |
Underlying operating profit |
31.3 |
32.4 |
3.4% |
(12.8%) |
35.5 |
35.6 |
0.0% |
9.9% |
Underlying operating margin |
7.0% |
7.2% |
0.2% |
(0.7%) |
7.3% |
7.3% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
Normalised operating profit |
32.9 |
34.0 |
3.2% |
(12.7%) |
37.3 |
37.4 |
0.0% |
10.0% |
Normalised operating margin |
7.4% |
7.6% |
0.2% |
(0.8%) |
7.7% |
7.7% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
Normalised PBT |
28.3 |
29.4 |
3.7% |
(15.1%) |
32.4 |
32.4 |
0.0% |
10.2% |
Normalised net income |
21.2 |
22.0 |
3.7% |
(20.3%) |
24.3 |
24.3 |
0.0% |
10.2% |
Normalised diluted EPS (p) |
23.0 |
23.9 |
3.7% |
(24.9%) |
26.4 |
26.4 |
0.0% |
10.3% |
Underlying diluted EPS (p) |
21.7 |
22.6 |
4.0% |
(25.1%) |
24.9 |
24.9 |
0.0% |
10.1% |
Reported basic EPS (p) |
11.3 |
12.2 |
7.9% |
(28.4%) |
13.3 |
13.3 |
0.0% |
9.3% |
Dividend per share (p) |
10.4 |
10.4 |
0.0% |
250.2% |
10.7 |
10.7 |
0.0% |
2.9% |
Net (debt)/cash |
(66.0) |
(65.7) |
(0.5%) |
7.1% |
(65.7) |
(64.9) |
(1.2%) |
(1.2%) |
Net debt/EBITDA (x) |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
£m |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
|||
Year end 31 March |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
271.1 |
287.7 |
338.2 |
387.9 |
438.9 |
466.4 |
448.6 |
486.5 |
|
Cost of Sales |
(186.7) |
(195.1) |
(227.2) |
(261.2) |
(293.9) |
(309.7) |
(297.5) |
(322.1) |
|||
Gross Profit |
84.4 |
92.6 |
111.0 |
126.7 |
145.0 |
156.7 |
151.1 |
164.4 |
|||
EBITDA |
|
|
16.6 |
19.8 |
24.3 |
29.3 |
37.0 |
50.9 |
46.4 |
49.8 |
|
Operating Profit (before am, SBP and except.) |
|
14.0 |
17.0 |
20.6 |
25.2 |
31.8 |
38.9 |
34.0 |
37.4 |
||
Operating Profit (before am. and except.) |
|
13.4 |
16.3 |
20.0 |
24.5 |
30.6 |
37.1 |
32.4 |
35.6 |
||
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(2.1) |
(2.8) |
(3.9) |
(4.9) |
(5.9) |
(9.0) |
(10.8) |
(11.0) |
|||
Exceptionals |
(5.2) |
(2.1) |
(8.4) |
(2.3) |
(2.0) |
(4.3) |
(2.4) |
(3.6) |
|||
Share-based payments |
(0.6) |
(0.7) |
(0.6) |
(0.7) |
(1.2) |
(1.8) |
(1.6) |
(1.8) |
|||
Operating Profit |
6.1 |
11.4 |
7.7 |
17.3 |
22.7 |
23.8 |
19.1 |
21.0 |
|||
Net Interest |
(1.6) |
(1.8) |
(2.8) |
(2.6) |
(3.4) |
(4.3) |
(4.6) |
(5.0) |
|||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
12.4 |
15.2 |
17.8 |
22.6 |
28.4 |
34.6 |
29.4 |
32.4 |
|
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
4.3 |
9.4 |
4.8 |
14.6 |
19.3 |
19.5 |
14.5 |
15.9 |
|
Tax |
(1.4) |
(2.2) |
(1.3) |
(4.0) |
(4.7) |
(5.2) |
(3.6) |
(4.0) |
|||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
10.0 |
11.8 |
13.6 |
17.1 |
21.5 |
27.6 |
22.0 |
24.3 |
|||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
2.9 |
7.2 |
3.5 |
10.6 |
14.6 |
14.3 |
10.9 |
11.9 |
|||
Ave. Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
57.6 |
63.3 |
65.4 |
70.8 |
73.0 |
84.0 |
89.1 |
89.5 |
|||
EPS - normalised & diluted (p) |
|
|
16.4 |
17.8 |
19.9 |
23.0 |
28.4 |
31.8 |
23.9 |
26.4 |
|
EPS - IFRS basic (p) |
|
|
5.0 |
11.4 |
5.3 |
15.0 |
20.0 |
17.0 |
12.2 |
13.3 |
|
EPS - IFRS diluted (p) |
|
|
4.8 |
10.9 |
5.1 |
14.2 |
19.4 |
16.5 |
11.8 |
12.9 |
|
Dividend per share (p) |
7.6 |
8.1 |
8.5 |
9.0 |
9.6 |
3.0 |
10.4 |
10.7 |
|||
Gross Margin (%) |
31.1 |
32.2 |
32.8 |
32.7 |
33.0 |
33.6 |
33.7 |
33.8 |
|||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
6.1 |
6.9 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
8.4 |
10.9 |
10.3 |
10.2 |
|||
Operating Margin (before am, SBP and except.) (%) |
5.2 |
5.9 |
6.1 |
6.5 |
7.2 |
8.3 |
7.6 |
7.7 |
|||
discoverIE adjusted operating margin (%) |
4.9 |
5.7 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
7.0 |
8.0 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
|||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
88.6 |
108.4 |
122.2 |
136.4 |
149.2 |
236.4 |
238.9 |
223.0 |
|
Intangible Assets |
69.9 |
88.2 |
100.7 |
107.2 |
119.7 |
182.2 |
192.8 |
181.7 |
|||
Tangible Assets |
13.8 |
14.7 |
16.0 |
23.4 |
24.4 |
46.3 |
38.2 |
33.4 |
|||
Deferred tax assets |
4.9 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
5.1 |
7.9 |
7.9 |
7.9 |
|||
Current Assets |
|
|
127.3 |
128.3 |
147.1 |
165.9 |
179.1 |
197.4 |
190.5 |
199.6 |
|
Stocks |
39.8 |
42.9 |
48.8 |
58.1 |
66.2 |
68.4 |
71.3 |
77.0 |
|||
Debtors |
60.2 |
65.5 |
77.3 |
84.6 |
88.7 |
90.1 |
89.7 |
97.3 |
|||
Cash |
26.7 |
19.9 |
21.0 |
21.9 |
22.9 |
36.8 |
27.4 |
23.2 |
|||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(62.1) |
(61.7) |
(78.1) |
(94.0) |
(96.0) |
(103.6) |
(107.3) |
(115.1) |
|
Creditors |
(61.9) |
(60.9) |
(77.1) |
(87.6) |
(94.3) |
(94.0) |
(97.7) |
(105.5) |
|||
Lease liabilities |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(5.3) |
(5.3) |
(5.3) |
|||
Short term borrowings |
(0.2) |
(0.8) |
(1.0) |
(6.4) |
(1.7) |
(4.3) |
(4.3) |
(4.3) |
|||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(61.1) |
(73.1) |
(68.7) |
(81.5) |
(97.6) |
(129.7) |
(114.4) |
(95.7) |
|
Long term borrowings |
(45.5) |
(57.2) |
(50.0) |
(67.9) |
(84.5) |
(93.8) |
(88.8) |
(83.8) |
|||
Lease liabilities |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(14.7) |
(8.1) |
(1.5) |
|||
Other long term liabilities |
(15.6) |
(15.9) |
(18.7) |
(13.6) |
(13.1) |
(21.2) |
(17.5) |
(10.4) |
|||
Net Assets |
|
|
92.7 |
101.9 |
122.5 |
126.8 |
134.7 |
200.5 |
207.7 |
211.9 |
|
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
6.6 |
14.6 |
20.5 |
21.7 |
30.0 |
48.0 |
45.6 |
42.2 |
|
Net Interest |
(1.6) |
(1.8) |
(2.8) |
(2.6) |
(3.4) |
(3.7) |
(4.6) |
(5.0) |
|||
Tax |
(3.3) |
(4.3) |
(3.0) |
(3.7) |
(3.8) |
(6.4) |
(7.3) |
(8.1) |
|||
Capex |
(2.5) |
(2.3) |
(3.4) |
(4.3) |
(5.4) |
(6.3) |
(4.0) |
(7.5) |
|||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(37.3) |
(19.8) |
(11.8) |
(25.4) |
(22.4) |
(73.6) |
(24.7) |
(5.0) |
|||
Financing |
52.7 |
0.0 |
13.6 |
(1.5) |
0.1 |
53.9 |
(6.6) |
(6.6) |
|||
Dividends |
(3.6) |
(4.9) |
(5.2) |
(6.2) |
(6.7) |
(8.1) |
(2.8) |
(9.3) |
|||
Net Cash Flow |
11.0 |
(18.5) |
7.9 |
(22.0) |
(11.6) |
3.8 |
(4.4) |
0.8 |
|||
Opening net cash/(debt) |
|
|
1.8 |
(19.0) |
(38.1) |
(30.0) |
(52.4) |
(63.3) |
(61.3) |
(65.7) |
|
HP finance leases initiated |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||
Other |
(31.8) |
(0.6) |
0.2 |
(0.4) |
0.7 |
(1.8) |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
|||
Closing net cash/(debt) |
|
|
(19.0) |
(38.1) |
(30.0) |
(52.4) |
(63.3) |
(61.3) |
(65.7) |
(64.9) |
Source: discoverIE, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Metals & Mining
Even with investment in new growth projects, we expect Newmont’s pre-financing cash flows to increase by 47.4%, from US$2.6bn to US$3.9bn (or US$4.83/share) by FY25 and to continue to increase thereafter as past investment is brought to account and net debt potentially extinguished. At the same time, shareholders will also benefit from a market-leading dividend as well as a share buyback programme of approximately the same order of magnitude.
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