VietNam Holding — The next five years and beyond

VietNam Holding (LSE: VNH)

Last close As at 13/12/2024

GBP4.14

−4.00 (−0.96%)

Market capitalisation

GBP99m

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Research: Investment Companies

VietNam Holding — The next five years and beyond

In early 2021, the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam elected a new politburo government for the next five years. There is strong continuity in the government’s structure and Dynam Capital (Dynam), which took over management of VietNam Holding (VNH) nearly three years ago, describes the government’s mandate as ‘pro-business’. Dynam states the government emphasises economic growth with a big push to develop domestic infrastructure, including a new international airport and urban metro systems in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam handled COVID-19 well and recorded 2.9% GDP growth in 2020 versus a decline in the world economy of 3.5% (IMF data). This growth paves the way for the continued expansion of domestic consumption and Dynam’s investment team chooses a tightly focused selection of businesses set to benefit from the positive demographic, industrial and urbanisation trends.

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Investment Companies

VietNam Holding

The next five years and beyond

Investment trusts
Vietnamese equities

28 June 2021

Price

262.0p

Market cap

£111.7m

AUM

£138.3m

NAV*

324.5p

Discount to NAV*

19.3%

*Including income. As at 25 June 2021.

Yield

0.0%

Ordinary shares in issue

42.6m

Code

VNH

Primary exchange

LSE

AIC sector

Country Specialists: Asia Pacific

Benchmark

VN All Share index

52-week high/low

263.0p

147.0p

324.5p

170.7p

*Including income.

Gearing

Net cash at 30 April 2021

2.9%

Fund objective

VietNam Holding’s investment objective is to achieve long-term capital appreciation by investing in a diversified portfolio of companies that have high growth potential and an attractive valuation. The fund has experienced several significant changes since September 2017, including a new board and appointment of the current manager, Dynam Capital.

Bull points

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations are a key part of the manager’s approach.

A very concentrated portfolio (c 20–25 holdings) and mid- to small-cap focus gives investors exposure to less well researched, high-growth companies.

The proactive board is committed to promoting shareholders’ interests.

Bear points

The relatively small market cap of c £112m (note: up from c £75m 12 months ago) limits liquidity to some extent.

Wider than peers’ double-digit discount.

The trust has relatively high fees for an LSE-listed trust, but is in line with its two peers, as Vietnamese equities are expensive to run.

Analysts

Victoria Chernykh

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Sarah Godfrey

+44 (0)20 3681 2519

VietNam Holding is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In early 2021, the 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam elected a new politburo government for the next five years. There is strong continuity in the government’s structure and Dynam Capital (Dynam), which took over management of VietNam Holding (VNH) nearly three years ago, describes the government’s mandate as ‘pro-business’. Dynam states the government emphasises economic growth with a big push to develop domestic infrastructure, including a new international airport and urban metro systems in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam handled COVID-19 well and recorded 2.9% GDP growth in 2020 versus a decline in the world economy of 3.5% (IMF data). This growth paves the way for the continued expansion of domestic consumption and Dynam’s investment team chooses a tightly focused selection of businesses set to benefit from the positive demographic, industrial and urbanisation trends.

VNH’s relative performance (TR) has strengthened over the past 12 months

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Data to end-May 2021.

Why VNH?

According to the manager, VNH is differentiated from its two London-quoted peers (VEIL and VOF) by three major factors. Dynam only manages equities and is 100% focused on VNH (no fixed income, real estate or commodities, no house money or other mandates). It has also been a signatory to the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) for over a decade, the longest of the three funds. Dynam considers ESG principles an integral part of its investment process. We believe VNH’s slightly wider discount than peers’ average of 16.6% (18.1% three-year average for VNH) has the potential to narrow and reward patient investors.

The analyst’s view

We believe this country specialist fund offers investors exposure to a high-growth frontier market with conviction stock ideas across the market cap spectrum. The transformation that Vietnam began 30 years ago is in full swing. The country provides an array of investment opportunities and VNH is well positioned to provide exposure to these. In particular, c 60% of the fund is focused on the mega trends of industrialisation, urbanisation and consumption, supported by the country’s recent new five-year plan. VNH’s performance relative to the index can be volatile, as it is a very concentrated fund. Over the past month (to end-May), the top four holdings (39% of NAV) drove strong outperformance vs the index (19% NAV TR vs 8% for the index), resulting in the fund’s NAV outperforming over one and three months.

Focused equity portfolio captures economic growth

Dynam believes that Vietnam is currently going through an acceleration in economic growth. Exhibit 1 illustrates that at the turn of the millennium, the Vietnamese economy was worth c US$30bn. This has now grown more than 10 times to c $340bn (in nominal terms). The team expects it to reach US$0.5tn within five years.

Exhibit 1: GDP growth of Vietnam (US$bn)

Source: Dynam Capital, Edison Investment Research

Vietnam is a very open economy for international trade. The Global Economics think tank ranks Vietnam eighth in the world by trade openness (which is exports plus imports as a percentage of GDP). For example, during 2020, Vietnam successfully concluded a number of trade agreements, including entering the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, covering the Asia-Pacific region, initiating an EU free trade agreement and entering into a free trade agreement with the UK towards the end of the year. Vietnam has already become a key part of the global supply chain. Its trade volumes are around twice its GDP and further international collaboration is likely to stimulate its economy and growth in trade. According to Dynam, one of the key forward-looking themes in Vietnam during 2020 was the relocation of manufacturing from other countries globally (particularly from China) to Vietnam.

Like China, Vietnam uses a five-year planning cycle. At the end of every five-year period, the government assesses its achievements, outstanding matters and future priorities. In our opinion, this system benefits investors, who get a better understanding of forthcoming social, economic and political issues. Each five-year plan sets out a budget and related areas of expenditure.

In February 2021, the country entered the next stage of economic progression with a new five-year plan. It focuses on reducing corruption and market inefficiencies and encourages investment in domestic infrastructure.

Given this backdrop, Dynam Capital continues to pursue investment opportunities, capturing three mega trends in Vietnam by investing in listed companies. Two of these trends, industrialisation (c 33% of thematic exposure in VNH’s portfolio at end-April 2021) and urbanisation (c 17%) are directly linked to the government’s key goal of developing infrastructure. The third largest thematic exposure, consumer (c 11%), aims to capture growth in consumption by the middle class, as the economy grows and income per capita increases. As the Vietnamese population’s disposable income grows, they become more sophisticated consumers of goods and services as proportionately less of their income is needed for essentials like food.

The portfolio contained 28 holdings at end-April 2021 (22 holdings at end-April 2020), that is a few holdings more than the targeted 20–25 range. As shown in Exhibit 2, two major changes over the past 12 months were the increase in banks’ weighting (+14.5pp) from a low level (15.7% at end-April 2020) and a reduction in the retail sector (-8.2pp).

Exhibit 3 shows the two major retail positions that were reduced by the team: jewellery retailer Phu Nhuan Jewelry (-4.4pp) and mobile services giant Mobile World (-2.2pp). The Dynam team believes there will be an overhang in the retail sector from the COVID-19 economic crisis and resulting lockdowns. The sector is still overweight as it is a sizeable part of the consumer theme for Dynam, and the team retains conviction in the remaining retail holdings. Both holdings remain in the top 10 within the portfolio.

The team is currently upbeat about Vietnamese banks. Dynam points out that banks in Vietnam are more regulated than other industries, which forces them to adopt standards of best practice. This encourages them to maintain healthier balance sheets and operational resilience. The growth potential in the banking sector is vast, given the government’s current growth plans for the economy and e-commerce developments. We note that the team was underweight banks before 2020 which, coupled with the previous overweight position in retail, was one of the major reasons for the fund’s relative underperformance versus its two closest peers, and believe, it took courage to buy into them during the uncertainty of 2020. As it supplies businesses with capital, the banking sector is one of the key parts of the growing economy amid its demographic, industrial and urbanisation trends. This high-growth sector incorporates the three major themes that Dynam is pursuing.

Exhibit 2: Portfolio sector exposure at 30 April 2021

% unless stated

Portfolio
30 Apr 2021

Portfolio
30 Apr 2020

Change
(pp)

VNAS index weight

Active weight vs index (pp)

Company weight/index weight (x)

Banks

30.2

15.7

14.5

27.2

3.0

1.1

Industrial Goods & Services

18.6

22.5

(3.9)

9.9

8.7

1.9

Real Estate

16.4

17.5

(1.1)

25.1

(8.7)

0.7

Telecommunications

10.5

14.7

(4.2)

3.4

7.0

3.0

Retail

9.8

18.0

(8.2)

4.7

5.1

2.1

Financial Services

6.8

0.0

6.8

6.0

0.9

1.1

Food & Beverage

1.5

1.9

(0.4)

10.8

(9.3)

0.1

Construction & Materials

1.2

0.0

1.2

3.6

(2.4)

0.3

Chemicals

1.1

0.0

1.1

1.0

0.1

1.1

Utilities

0.9

6.5

(5.6)

1.2

(0.3)

0.7

Other sectors

0.0

0.0

0.0

7.0

(7.0)

0.0

Cash

2.9

3.3

(0.4)

0.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Source: VNH, Edison Investment Research. Note: Figures subject to rounding.

Exhibit 3 illustrates that within the top 10 holdings in the portfolio 12 months ago, two of the banks, Vietnam Prosperity JSC Bank and Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank, had their weights materially increased, by 6.5pp and 5.9pp, respectively. Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial (4.2% portfolio weight at end-April 2021) is a new addition to the portfolio’s allocation to banks.

Exhibit 3: Top 10 holdings (%)

Company

Industry

30-Apr-21

30-Apr-20

Change

FPT Corp

Telecommunications

10.5

14.7

(4.2)

Hoa Phat Group

Industrial goods & services

10.3

5.4

4.9

Vietnam Prosperity JSC Bank

Banks

9.1

2.6

6.5

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank

Banks

8.8

2.9

5.9

Military Commercial Bank

Banks

5.4

6.4

(1.0)

Mobile World

Retail

5.2

7.4

(2.2)

Vinhomes JSC

Real estate

4.9

1.8

3.1

Khang Dien House

Real estate

4.7

6.0

(1.3)

Phu Nhuan Jewelry

Retail

4.6

9.0

(4.4)

Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial

Banks

4.2

N/A

N/A

Top 10 holdings

67.7

70.8

Source: VNH, Edison Investment Research. Note: Figures subject to rounding.

The telecommunications and industrial sectors had their weightings reduced by 4.2pp and 3.9pp, respectively, as the team took profits from stocks that performed well and reinvested cash into banks and financial services (which increased by 6.8pp).

Anticipating lower growth potential from a number of sectors, including food & beverages, construction & materials, chemicals and utilities, the team allocates to each less than a 2.0% weighting. A small increase in construction & materials (+1.2pp) as well as chemicals (+1.1pp), represent the industrialisation and urbanisation trends.

Performance

Exhibit 4 illustrates a material improvement in relative performance over the past few months. VNH’s favourable positioning in relation to the cyclical market recovery has paid off. The top 10 holdings, including the industrial group Hoa Phat and two banks, Vietnam Prosperity JSC Bank and Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank, to which the team added during 2020, drove the outperformance. While VNH does not have a benchmark, we have used two Vietnamese equity market indices for comparative purposes. The fund has outperformed the VN Index (385 members, the broader market index of the two) and the VN All-Share Index (259 members) over six months and one year by 9.2% and 6.3%, and 12.1% and 9.2%, respectively, on a net asset value (NAV) total return basis.

VNH still lags both indices over the period of Dynam’s tenure (from July 2018) and over the last three years. During FY19–20, VNH had a sizeable overweight position in the retail sector (18% at end-April 2020, reducing to 9.8% at end-April 2021, see Exhibit 2). The team held high-conviction names, which are still in the portfolio, albeit with reduced weightings, including Mobile World (MWG), Phu Nhuan Jewelry (PNJ) and retail-related Vincom Retail (VRE), as well as Thien Long Group (TLG, now sold) at a time when the retail sector was underperforming. VNH also held more smaller-cap companies in the portfolio, which underperformed the larger caps during that period (around 2018, the small caps traded at a discount of about 30% to the large caps). Following the addition of banks and a few other large-cap stocks, the portfolio is more balanced between small and large caps. In addition, the two tender offers since Dynam’s appointment potentially contribute to the fund’s historical underperformance. The team conducted a $40.7m tender offer in FY19 to restructure the fund (June year end, see our initiation note for more details) followed by another offer for c $19.6m in FY21. The company also bought back 0.5m shares (just over 1% of the share capital) during FY21.

During the last six months of FY20 and in early FY21, Dynam was gradually adding to banks and financial services, which performed strongly over these periods, while reducing poorly performing retail, in order to reposition the portfolio towards more cyclical sectors, which should support performance.

Exhibit 4: Share price and NAV total return performance, relative to indices (%)

 

One month

Three months

Six months

One year

Three years

Five years

10 years

SC*

Price relative to Vietnam VN All-Share index

10.3

2.7

18.0

7.7

(12.5)

(21.1)

31.4

(6.5)

NAV relative to Vietnam VN All-Share index

2.3

1.2

6.3

9.2

(11.4)

(19.9)

14.7

(18.6)

Price relative to Vietnam VN index

13.1

9.8

21.2

-0.1

(10.2)

(18.9)

35.0

(4.0)

NAV relative to Vietnam VN index

4.9

8.2

9.2

2.1

(9.0)

(17.7)

17.8

(16.5)

Price relative to MSCI Emerging Markets

19.4

20.6

39.9

17.8

(4.8)

(10.9)

170.0

5.4

NAV relative to MSCI Emerging Markets

10.8

18.8

26.1

19.4

(3.6)

(9.6)

135.6

(8.2)

Source: Bloomberg, Dynam Capital, Edison Investment Research. Note: Data to end-May 2021. Geometric calculation. *SC denotes the performance since the start date of the current manager on 16 July 2018.

The portfolio is now well positioned to benefit in 2021 from its allocation to economically sensitive sectors like banks, industrials and retail, should the economy continue to perform well supported by the global cyclical recovery and ongoing domestic growth.

Exhibit 5 shows VNH’s discrete performance over the past five years, where Dynam is responsible for the last three. While this concentrated fund’s return was more negatively affected by the market slump in March 2020 than Vietnam VN Index and Vietnam VN All-Share Index, the fund bounced back well in 2021. VNH returned 57.4% on an NAV total return (TR) basis over 12 months to end-May 2021, outperforming the Vietnam VN Index by 2.0% and the Vietnam VN All-Share Index by 13.3%, demonstrating the fund’s strong alpha relative to these two indices.

Exhibit 5: Five-year discrete performance data

12 months ending

Total share price return (%)

Total NAV return
(%)

Vietnam VN All-Share Index (%)

Vietnam VN Index (%)

Vietnam VN30
Index (%)

MSCI Emerging Markets (%)

31/05/17

18.4

37.8

35.1

23.1

32.7

44.2

31/05/18

26.5

(1.1)

22.8

34.0

31.8

11.0

31/05/19

(17.3)

(5.9)

(1.0)

(1.4)

(6.7)

(3.2)

31/05/20

(7.5)

(9.5)

(4.9)

(8.4)

(2.2)

(2.2)

31/05/21

55.3

57.4

44.1

55.4

28.1

31.8

Source: VNH, Refinitiv, Bloomberg. Note: All % on a total return basis in GBP.

Exhibit 6 presents the averages for the Vietnam peer group of three London-listed trusts. VNH’s market cap has grown materially from £75m (at end November 2020), as the fund has performed strongly over the past few months, and now exceeds £100m, but it remains the smallest among its Vietnam peers. This growth came despite the tender offer in November 2020 and the trust buying back 298,000 shares (£0.1m) over six months to end May 2021. VNH currently has 42.6m shares outstanding.

As the current manager was appointed in July 2018, the one-year NAV total return is still the most relevant, where it ranks second (by margin), sharing the top TR position with VEIL (up from third at end-November 2020). VNH’s stellar performance over the past three months and during May, in particular, boosted the one-year TR. If the recovery continues, higher exposure (relative to the benchmark) to banks and some other cyclical stocks, such as industrials, positions the fund well to result in sustainable outperformance to the indices.

VNH has a different mix of sectors, compared to its two peers, but all three funds currently have high exposure to cyclicals. VEIL is slightly more overweight banks (33% versus 30% for VNH, 27% for the VN All-Share index) and has more real estate (26% versus 16%, 25% for the index) in particular, while all other sectors are represented in VEIL at less than 10% (end-May 2021 portfolio). VOF’s highest weighting is in construction & materials (24% versus 1% in VNH, 4% for the index). VOF allocates a 20% weighting to financial services (including banks) and to the real estate sector.

While VNH’s ongoing charges are highest of the three funds (smaller funds tend to incur higher charges), in 2020 the board removed the performance fee for a 25bp increase in the management fee to 1.75% pa on NAV below $300m and 1.5% on NAV between $300m and $600m. The board notes that the initiative lowers the total expense ratio (TER) of the fund by c 80bp on a forward-looking basis.

Exhibit 6: Country specialist – Vietnam peer group*

% unless stated

Market cap £m

NAV TR
1 year

NAV TR
3 year

NAV TR
5 year

NAV TR
10 year

Discount (cum-fair)

Ongoing charge

Perf.
fee

Net gearing

Dividend yield (%)

VietNam Holding

107.0

60.83

31.1

83.9

400.6

(17.5)

3.08

No

100

0.0

Vietnam Enterprise

1,449.1

60.85

45.8

194.8

549.1

(14.2)

2.19

No

100

0.0

VinaCapital Vietnam

781.8

39.4

38.3

135.1

318.9

(16.2)

1.72

Yes

100

2.1

Simple average

779.3

53.7

38.4

137.9

422.9

(16.6)

2.33

100

0.7

Rank

3

2

3

3

2

3

1

2

Vietnam VN Index

35.0

26.7

113.6

225.3

Source: Morningstar, Bloomberg, Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Data to end-May 2021. TR = total return. Net gearing is total assets less cash and equivalents as a percentage of net assets.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by VietNam Holding and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by VietNam Holding. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by VietNam Holding and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by VietNam Holding. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Greggs — Rate of recovery continues to surprise

Greggs’ Q221 trading has surprised on the upside, with positive two-year like-for-like (lfl) sales growth continuing through the end of the period, having previously reported a return to growth earlier than expected. We upgrade our revenue forecasts for FY21, assuming a positive lfl outturn for the rest of the year, versus negative previously, leading to PBT upgrades for FY21 and FY22 of 18%. The strength of the recovery also leads us to increase our dividend forecast for FY21 by more than 150%. The P/E for FY22 of 22.4x is consistent with Greggs’ average trading multiples before COVID-19, reflecting its medium-term growth outlook and shareholder returns, but below prior peak multiples.

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