Promising material developments

In Q4, revenues in semiconductor systems, the largest division, were 20.3% lower y-o-y at €41.3m, while industrial systems sales were 37.9% higher at €27.5m. The fall in semiconductor revenue was caused by project timing shifts towards 2026 that were reported in October with underutilisation leading to lower margins. However, order intake is improving. In industrial systems, revenues from the aerospace and energy sectors kept up. New developments in materials around indium phosphide (InP) and 300mm silicon carbide (SiC) wafers, especially regarding data centre applications, seem very interesting.

Transformation taking shape

PVA’s transition in metrology from a more R&D-oriented firm towards a high- volume tool manufacturer (HVM) is progressing quickly, in line with industry needs. In 2025, more than 50% of its activities in acoustic metrology related to HVM business, significantly more than in 2024. According to PVA its addressable market for acoustic metrology was $333m, of which PVA represented c $73m, and it expects the market to reach $550m by 2028, of which the company expects to account for c $165–220m. Current order momentum appears to support this growth trajectory.

Valuation

PVA is trading at a reported P/E of 29.1x on our updated FY27 estimates and an EV/EBITDA of 12.5x. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) model points to a fair value of €31.99, compared to €31.63 in our last report, despite our much lower estimates for FY26 and FY27. This is caused by higher anticipated growth in FY28. Compared to US-listed peers like Onto Innovation and Camtek, PVA’s valuation is not demanding.

Results in line with preliminaries

PVA reported final FY25 revenues of €244.3m and EBITDA of €25.3m (FY24: €47.8m), in line with the preliminary results. Order intake in Q4 was an impressive €91.5m (Q424: €43.4m), a further acceleration after Q3’s €72.9m, and in the analyst call after the results PVA mentioned a very encouraging continuation of this momentum, with €50m metrology orders received this year so far, which is a major positive, although some of these new orders are for FY27 delivery. The company is guiding for a gradual recovery of results in FY26 and reiterated its guidance for revenues of €255–275m and EBITDA of €26–31m.

EBIT came in at €15.1m, driven by higher depreciation and amortisation as a result of the FY25 investment in the company’s transition. In addition, the net financial result was much lower than previous years due to one offs and of course the company now has net debt (€30.5m), compared to net cash in previous years.

All in all, net profit decreased to €7.6m, compared to €27.1m in FY24, and EPS to €0.37, compared to €1.25 in FY24. Adjusted for amortisation and the shares that PVA has in treasury related to its share buyback, EPS would amount to €0.47.

In Q4, revenues in the largest division, semiconductor systems, came in 20.3% lower year-on-year at €41.3m, while industrial systems sales were 37.9% higher at €27.5m. In semiconductors the decrease was caused by project timing shifts
towards 2026, which management had previously flagged. This should help revenue development this year. We expect that underutilisation was the main reason for lower margins in the division, as well as higher costs in PVA’s preparation to become a high volume manufacturer with a matching service organisation.

In industrial systems, demand from the aerospace and energy sectors kept revenues up. Lower EBITDA in this division was mainly caused by additional opex for growth initiatives. EBITDA in semiconductor systems was €7.4m, from €13.6m a year earlier, and the industrial segment was 68.6% lower at €1.6m.

As of Q126, PVA will report metrology and material solutions segments instead of semiconductor and industrial systems. This aligns its financial reporting with the operations.

Road to reaching 30–40% market share in acoustic metrology tools

With the increasing complexity of the chip-making process, requirements for materials and process tools are becoming more stringent. Control over the chip-making process is becoming critical and requires many measuring and inspection steps. Metrology companies are thus becoming more important in the semiconductor value chain, as discussed in our report on metrology. Until recently, PVA was more active in R&D and near-line inspection metrology tools for semiconductors and not so much in the high-volume environments that companies like Applied Materials and ASML are working in. Now, PVA is bringing its metrology tools into both the R&D centres and the production lines of leading-edge producers, instead of the more mature node producers it addressed before.

Making tools for the volume production environments of these clients is a different ball game than for the R&D centres. Machines must be exactly the same, there are no more changes to the systems once they are in line, 24/7 support is needed on-site and of course the tools must be able to process many more wafers as cleanroom capacity is expensive. Many things are different, such as the tool setup and the qualification of service teams. As such, this is a big transformation for PVA and it requires a lot of investment, which is what we are seeing in the financial results.

In addition, qualification for these environments takes a long time: up to 12 months, and sometimes even longer. PVA’s first client in the metrology field for high volumes was a large US integrated device manufacturer (IDM). Last year it qualified with a large Taiwanese foundry, and now a Korean memory player. With the production momentum of these companies, especially driven by AI, the need for metrology tools is increasing.

As a result, PVA’s transition is now in high gear. In 2025, more than 50% of its activities in acoustic metrology related to HVM business, significantly more than in 2024. High bandwidth memory (HBM), in which more and more ever-thinner layers of DRAM are stacked, is a crucial element for AI data centres and hybrid bonding (probably also used in future HBM generations) is an important new technology for the next generation of AI and high-performance semiconductors. The non-invasive acoustic metrology that PVA offers has to be used in these cases, both for logic and memory chips.

According to PVA the addressable market for acoustic metrology was €333m in FY25, of which PVA accounted for ~$73m, and it is expected that the market will reach $550m by 2028, of which PVA expects to take ~$165–220m. PVA’s order momentum appears to support this growth trajectory.

Heading for a strong H2 in terms of orders

Although order momentum for metrology seemed somewhat disappointing in Q4 due to regular seasonality in orders, the overall order intake was a clear positive. Material solutions’ order intake in particular was strong. In Q126 order momentum reverted to normal, with an order intake of around €50m so far for metrology tools, although some of these orders are for delivery in 2027. The metrology order run rate is expected to accelerate from late 2026 to 2027 and onwards. This is also the case for other equipment makers in the supply chain, such as Besi and Onto Innovation, which expect a stronger H226 compared to H126. For PVA this effect will be larger because off the ongoing qualifications.

PVA has qualification at a Taiwanese foundry, a US IDM/foundry and a Korean memory player, with a system shipped for HVM. PVA is also talking to other memory players.

Promising new materials

On the materials solutions side, there is increasing demand for crystal growth for high-end semi applications. PVA wants to address a broader range of future materials here with its synthesis technology (see our report on materials for semiconductors). PVA has been dependent on the silicon (Si) crystal growing business, which had lumpy and volatile order cycles, and while it has started addressing SiC for power electronics markets, it is also looking at other opportunities to reduce dependency on one or two product lines in this segment.

In SiC the development from 150mm to 200mm to 300mm is progressing rapidly. On 200mm SiC, PVA has already made good progress and it expects to receive its first orders for 300mm systems this year. SiC is mostly used in power applications, especially for cars, but also smartphones etc. However, for 300mm, PVA is engaging with AI data centres and exploring different uses of the material (not so much inverters and IBGTs as in automotive).

InP is another material that especially is used in photonic integrated circuits (PIC) or photonic chips. This material’s distinguishing property is that it does not absorb much light, which gives it an advantage compared to the regular Si material. InP is able to emit and detect light at wavelengths above 1,000nm, so also beyond visible light. In AI data centres data is increasingly transported by light because it is cheaper (less power) and faster. Photons (light) are closing in on the core processes of chips and InP helps in this development. As such, this is a very promising market segment.

The production process of InP is usually with a vertical gradient freeze (VGF) process, in which indium and phosphorus are first melted together and then gradually cooled, forming crystals. PVA TePla is a main supplier of this equipment. A few weeks ago it was announced that in the Netherlands the world’s first 6" wafer fab based on InP for PICs will be built by Smart Photonics, which might act as a catalyst for this material. PVA is also developing more systems for InP, for instance for cleaning.

PVA has started its first customer projects for AI projects regarding InP wafer material and will deliver a small number of systems used for R&D in the second half of 2026.

Financials: Estimates adjusted after FY25 results

For FY26, we have adjusted our revenue and EBITDA estimates towards the midpoint of the guided range (€255–275m for revenues and €26–31m for EBITDA). This means relatively large downward adjustments to our previous estimates.

For FY26 revenue we have held our growth estimates for industrial systems more or less the same, while we have decreased our estimates for semiconductor systems driven by Si/SiC synthesis but mostly metrology systems. For FY27 we have pencilled in strong growth (33%) but from a smaller base for semiconductor systems. We expect gross margins to recover more gradually than in our previous estimates, because of the mix (less metrology than expected) with a larger improvement in FY27. On our estimates it will be challenging to reach the midterm (FY28) revenue target of €500m, and in the conference call after the FY25 results CEO Jalin Ketter indicated that reaching this target could be delayed by a few months.

Depreciation is on a slightly higher level, because of the investments that have been made, and CFO Markus Groß indicated that in FY26 capex will remain relatively elevated (FY25: €29.7m), coming down in FY27.

PVA’s financial position remains solid with net debt of €30.5m. It has bought back 1.3m shares that are in treasury and can be sold in case of an emergency. Financial costs were much higher in FY25, driven by an impairment of €2.7m on Scientific Visual and €1.0m derivatives costs. We do not expect those to reoccur in FY26. All in all, our net income estimate for FY26 is 57.1% lower than before at €10.1m and for FY27 33.4% lower at €21.1m.

Valuation still not very demanding

PVA is trading at a P/E of 29.1x on our updated FY27 estimates and an EV/EBITDA of 12.5x. Our DCF model points to a fair value of €31.99, compared to €31.63 previously, despite lower FY26 and FY27 estimates, due to much higher anticipated growth in FY28.

Companies such as US-listed Onto Innovation, Camtek and KLA (much bigger), which are also active in metrology and inspection, trade at an average EV/EBITDA for FY27e of >17x (Onto) and ~35x (Camtek). On historical multiples, PVA’s valuation is not demanding. The five-year historical average P/E amounts to 32.2x and EV/EBITDA to 16.9x.