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Research: Industrials
Renewi’s rating reflects the historical volatility in margin performance and profits. If management can deliver on its full year guidance, performance from the restructured group should be far more resilient, which should start to improve the valuation.
Renewi |
H123 results |
Industrial support services |
17 November 2022 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Renewi is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Renewi’s rating reflects the historical volatility in margin performance and profits. If management can deliver on its full year guidance, performance from the restructured group should be far more resilient, which should start to improve the valuation.
Standing up to end-market pressures |
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
03/21 |
1,694 |
48 |
45 |
0 |
14.2 |
N/A |
03/22 |
1,869 |
105 |
98 |
0 |
6.5 |
N/A |
03/23e |
1,899 |
97 |
87 |
0 |
7.3 |
N/A |
03/24e |
1,959 |
93 |
84 |
5 |
7.6 |
0.8 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
H123 results overview
Sales increased 4% to €952m y-o-y, driven by pricing increases. Underlying EBIT increased 16% to €75.2m with operating margins of 7.9%, up from 7.1%. Underlying PBT of €61.6m was up 20% and underlying EPS increased 17% to 56c. Core net debt increased to €388m (March 2022: €303m) reflecting the Paro acquisition (€66m) and growth capital investments (€16m) with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.7x. The Commercial division increased revenues by 4% despite volume decline of c 9% (Netherlands -7%, Belgium -13%) due to higher recyclate prices. Margins increased from 9.6% to 9.9%, due to tight cost control and inflationary pass through. Specialities division revenues grew 11% with underlying operating profit of €11.3m, up from €1.7m driven by non-recurring items, particularly relating to UK Municipal, as well as improvements in Coolrec (electrical waste recycling) and Maltha (glass recycling). Mineralz & Water revenues were flat at €93.3m and underlying operating profit decreased to €2.6m from €4.0m y-o-y, primarily due to accounting changes increasing the depreciation charge, with the waterside business performing well, offsetting softer soil volumes. The group recycling rate increased to 68.4% (March 2022: 67.2%), showing progress towards the target of 75%.
Outlook and forecasts
Management guidance is unchanged despite the strong H1 as management negotiates the more challenging macroeconomic environment and inflationary pressures. FY23 profit forecast is unchanged. FY24 operating profit is reduced by €10m, primarily due to economic weakness and recyclate price softness affecting the Commercial division (PBT down from €103m to €93m). Given the economic outlook, level of debt (net debt EBITDA ratio c 2.0x) and future capital commitments, we see a reinstatement of the dividend as less likely in this financial year.
Valuation: Shares discounting economic headwinds
As discussed in our October update note, the recent offer for Biffa, the only remaining UK peer, equates to £10.91 per Renewi share, even after adjusting for a 30% acquisition premium. The forward P/E of c 7x also suggests value if the management guidance can be achieved.
Results overview
H123 sales increased 4% to €952m, driven by pricing increases. Underlying EBIT increased 16% to €75.2m with operating margins of 7.9%, up from 7.1%. This generated underlying PBT of €61.6m and continuing the positive trend seen over recent reporting periods (Exhibit 1). Underlying EPS was 56c, up 17% y-o-y.
|
Exhibit 1: Renewi performance |
|
|
Source: Renewi |
Commercial division
Exhibit 2: Commercial division half-yearly results
H120 |
H220 |
H121 |
H221 |
H122 |
H222 |
H123 |
|
Sales (€m) |
595.0 |
654.2 |
595.0 |
645.6 |
670.6 |
689.9 |
694.4 |
Operating profit (€m) |
29.4 |
49.2 |
29.4 |
47.4 |
64.7 |
71.0 |
68.4 |
Operating margin (%) |
4.9 |
7.5 |
4.9 |
7.3 |
9.6 |
10.3 |
9.9 |
Source: Renewi
Waste volumes treated by Renewi have been affected by lower economic activity and a shift from recycling to incineration where waste to energy plants benefit from the higher energy pricing; Netherlands volumes fell 7%, Belgium dropped 13%. Despite this, inbound revenues remained steady due to positive pricing, while outbound revenues increased thanks to higher recyclate prices. However, recyclate prices have generally eased since Q1 with glass, steel, paper and plastics weaker, although above historical levels, which suggests a headwind for H2, albeit wood pricing remains strong.
Management remains confident on pricing as cost inflation impacts across the sector. In addition, the Paro acquisition will start to be integrated over the second half. The first of three investments in advanced sorting lines in Belgium, totalling €60m, has been completed and will be commissioned in H2; this is a key element of management’s growth strategy.
Mineralz & Water division
Exhibit 3: Mineralz & Water half-yearly results
H120 |
H220 |
H121 |
H221 |
H122 |
H222 |
H123 |
|
Sales (€m) |
90.4 |
90.4 |
90.4 |
92.4 |
93.6 |
100.3 |
93.3 |
Operating profit (€m) |
2.3 |
3.3 |
2.3 |
(2.0) |
4.0 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
Operating margin (%) |
2.5 |
3.7 |
2.5 |
(2.2) |
4.3 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
Source: Renewi
The waterside business continues to perform well, with 22% growth in volumes and good margins reported by management. However, overall divisional performance continues to be affected by ATM, while depreciation, following recent investment, was also higher. ATM has now fully realigned to producing sand, gravel and filler for the asphalt and concrete sector rather than decontaminated soil. Further certification is still required before commercial volumes can be achieved. The legacy thermally cleaned soil inventory was 0.6mt (down marginally from 0.7mt), absorbing a further €1.1m (H122 €3.4m) of exceptional charges. Management remains confident of a potential €20m EBIT for the division.
Specialities division
Exhibit 4: Specialities half-yearly results
H120 |
H220 |
H121 |
H221 |
H122 |
H222 |
H123 |
|
Sales (€m) |
149.4 |
173.8 |
149.4 |
151.3 |
168.0 |
182.1 |
186.3 |
Operating profit (€m) |
0.0 |
(1.3) |
0.0 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
2.4 |
11.3 |
Operating margin (%) |
0.0 |
(0.7) |
0.0 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
6.1 |
Source: Renewi
The step change in operating profit was primarily due to one-off items (€8.7m of the €9.6m improvement), particularly the change in accounting and provisioning for onerous contracts (€4.2m vs €0.5m). Coolrec (electrical waste recycling) and Maltha (glass recycling) continued to improve their performance, both generating double-digit operating margins in the period.
Margin and cost analysis
Operating margins have been increasing, with underlying margins of 7.9% in H123. Given the slowing economic situation and cost inflation, there will be concerns about the sustainability of these returns, as there are for most companies. Exhibit 6 provides a breakdown of Renewi’s operating costs. Management suggests that over half of these costs are variable. Note that the union labour agreement in the Netherlands is for a wage increase of 7.5% from January and will impact across the sector, while Renewi has some further hedging benefits within its utilities. The Renewi 2.0 restructuring programme will continue to focus on efficiency at the SG&A level. Adding that management estimates that over half the cost base is flexible and pricing has been positive as cost issues impact across the sector supports management expectations for robust margin performance.
|
Exhibit 5: Underlying operating margin |
Exhibit 6: Cost breakdown |
|
|
|
Source: Renewi |
Source: Renewi |
|
Exhibit 5: Underlying operating margin |
|
|
Source: Renewi |
|
Exhibit 6: Cost breakdown |
|
|
Source: Renewi |
Exceptionals
Exceptionals primarily reflect the historical issues of the group. Of particular note in the first half were the changes in long-term provisions due to inflation and changes to discount rates.
Exhibit 7: Non-trading and exceptional items (€m)
H123 |
H122 |
|
Renewi 2.0 business improvement programme |
(2.0) |
(4.0) |
Portfolio management/disposals |
5.5 |
|
Inflationary/discount rate changes to provisions (primarily UK Municipal) |
6.4 |
|
Software configuration |
(1.7) |
|
Finance exceptional (Cumbria PPP interest rate swap) |
1.6 |
(0.1) |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(1.5) |
(1.6) |
Operational exceptionals net |
10.0 |
7.4 |
Tax impact of exceptionals and exceptional tax items |
(1.9) |
(5.4) |
Total |
8.1 |
2.0 |
Source: Renewi
Cash flow
Adjusted free cash flow from operations was €21.8m, converting to free cash flow of €4.1m after the cost of legacy issues (COVID-19 tax deferral €9.9m, legacy ATM soil offtake €1.1m and UK Municipal contracts €6.7m). Post-expansionary capex of €16.0m and acquisitions/disposals (primarily Paro) of €60.1m meant core net debt increased to €388m and led to a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.7x.
|
Exhibit 8: Core net debt progression |
|
|
Source: Renewi, Edison Investment Research |
Outlook
After a positive first half, management’s guidance for the full year remains unchanged, reflecting the uncertainties in the economic environment and the potential impact on waste volumes along with the generally weaker recyclate prices. The company has reduced the expected capex (replacement and growth) for the year by c €20m to c €120m due to timing and delivery phasing. Management expect leverage on core net debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.0x at the year-end (covenant limits 3.5x).
Forecasts
We have left FY23 forecast unchanged with the exception of EPS which is reduced by 3.6% due to a higher expected tax rate. We have reduced FY24 operating profit by €10m primarily due to lower profits expected in the Commercial division, in particular due to recyclate cost. Given the economic outlook, level of debt (net debt EBITDA ratio c 2.0x) and future capital commitments, we see a reinstatement of the dividend as less likely in this financial year.
Exhibit 9: Forecast changes
€m |
2023 |
2024 |
||||
Old |
New |
Change |
Old |
New |
Change |
|
Revenues |
1,906 |
1,899 |
-0.4% |
1,959 |
1,927 |
-1.6% |
Normalised operating profit |
129 |
128 |
-0.3% |
138 |
128 |
-7.3% |
Normalised operating profit margin |
6.8% |
6.8% |
0.0% |
7.1% |
6.7% |
-0.4% |
Normalised PBT |
97 |
97 |
-0.2% |
103 |
93 |
-10.1% |
Reported PBT |
84 |
84 |
-0.2% |
90 |
79 |
-11.6% |
Normalised basic EPS © |
90 |
87 |
-3.6% |
96 |
84 |
-12.0% |
Dividend per share © |
5 |
0 |
-100.0% |
10 |
5 |
-50.0% |
Closing core net debt/(cash) |
403 |
415 |
3.1% |
437 |
462 |
5.7% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 10: Financial summary
Year to March (€m) |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
2025e |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
1,693.6 |
1,869.2 |
1,898.5 |
1,927.1 |
2,006.3 |
Cost of Sales |
(1,408.5) |
(1,512.5) |
(1,543.5) |
(1,564.8) |
(1,625.1) |
||
Gross Profit |
285.1 |
356.7 |
355.0 |
362.3 |
381.2 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
202.2 |
261.5 |
252.4 |
252.6 |
265.6 |
Operating profit (before amort. And excepts.) |
|
|
73.0 |
133.6 |
128.4 |
128.3 |
139.1 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(3.3) |
(3.4) |
(5.0) |
(5.5) |
(6.0) |
||
Exceptionals |
(33.6) |
(6.2) |
(8.0) |
(8.0) |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit |
36.1 |
124.0 |
115.4 |
114.8 |
133.1 |
||
Net Interest |
(26.8) |
(28.8) |
(31.4) |
(35.3) |
(39.3) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
1.6 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
47.8 |
105.3 |
97.0 |
93.0 |
99.8 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
10.9 |
95.7 |
84.0 |
79.5 |
93.8 |
Reported tax |
(5.4) |
(20.3) |
(21.0) |
(19.9) |
(23.5) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
35.8 |
78.8 |
71.3 |
68.3 |
73.4 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
5.5 |
75.4 |
63.0 |
59.6 |
70.4 |
||
Minority interests |
(0.1) |
(0.9) |
(2.0) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
35.7 |
77.9 |
69.3 |
67.3 |
72.4 |
||
Net income (reported) |
5.4 |
74.5 |
61.0 |
58.6 |
69.4 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
79.5 |
79.7 |
80.0 |
80.0 |
80.0 |
||
EPS – normalised © |
|
|
45 |
98 |
87 |
84 |
90 |
EPS – normalised fully diluted © |
|
|
45 |
98 |
86 |
84 |
90 |
EPS – basic reported © |
|
|
7 |
93 |
76 |
73 |
87 |
Dividend © |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
5.0 |
10.0 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
10.4 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
4.1 |
|||
Gross Margin (%) |
16.8 |
19.1 |
18.7 |
18.8 |
19.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
11.9 |
14.0 |
13.3 |
13.1 |
13.2 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
4.3 |
7.1 |
6.8 |
6.7 |
6.9 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
1,612.3 |
1,565.9 |
1,596.9 |
1,648.1 |
1,672.6 |
Intangible Assets |
594.9 |
592.8 |
585.1 |
577.4 |
569.7 |
||
Tangible and Right-of-use Assets |
794.5 |
767.4 |
806.1 |
865.0 |
897.2 |
||
Investments & other |
222.9 |
205.7 |
205.7 |
205.7 |
205.7 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
355.7 |
385.9 |
389.3 |
392.0 |
415.8 |
Stocks |
20.6 |
22.5 |
24.5 |
24.6 |
25.6 |
||
Debtors |
247.7 |
269.3 |
274.3 |
276.9 |
299.7 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
68.8 |
63.6 |
60.0 |
60.0 |
60.0 |
||
Other |
18.6 |
30.5 |
30.5 |
30.5 |
30.5 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(646.7) |
(732.7) |
(673.8) |
(675.8) |
(692.9) |
Creditors |
(546.2) |
(528.4) |
(518.4) |
(520.4) |
(537.5) |
||
Tax and social security |
(13.8) |
(24.2) |
(24.2) |
(24.2) |
(24.2) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(47.8) |
(148.9) |
(100.0) |
(100.0) |
(100.0) |
||
Other |
(38.9) |
(31.2) |
(31.2) |
(31.2) |
(31.2) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(1,083.7) |
(880.9) |
(998.2) |
(1,005.0) |
(994.0) |
Long term borrowings |
(689.1) |
(518.7) |
(676.0) |
(722.8) |
(740.8) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(394.6) |
(362.2) |
(322.2) |
(282.2) |
(253.2) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
237.6 |
338.2 |
314.2 |
359.4 |
401.5 |
Minority interests |
(6.1) |
(7.0) |
(7.0) |
(7.0) |
(7.0) |
||
Shareholders’ equity |
|
|
231.5 |
331.2 |
307.2 |
352.4 |
394.5 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
202.2 |
261.5 |
252.4 |
252.6 |
265.6 |
||
Working capital |
82.4 |
(59.9) |
(17.0) |
(0.8) |
(6.7) |
||
Exceptional & other |
(31.1) |
(17.1) |
(49.1) |
(44.5) |
(33.5) |
||
Tax |
(14.8) |
(7.6) |
(45.7) |
(39.6) |
(41.5) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
238.7 |
176.9 |
140.6 |
167.7 |
184.0 |
Capex |
(57.6) |
(77.3) |
(105.0) |
(135.5) |
(111.1) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(2.7) |
(3.2) |
(58.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(15.9) |
(17.2) |
(29.6) |
(34.0) |
(38.0) |
||
Equity financing |
(1.2) |
(1.6) |
(5.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(8.0) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
161.3 |
77.6 |
(57.0) |
(1.8) |
27.0 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(456.9) |
(343.7) |
(303.1) |
(415.1) |
(461.9) |
FX |
(6.4) |
7.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
(41.7) |
(44.6) |
(55.0) |
(45.0) |
(45.0) |
||
Closing core net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(343.7) |
(303.1) |
(415.1) |
(461.9) |
(479.9) |
Finance Leases (FRS16) |
(236.7) |
(221.9) |
(221.9) |
(221.9) |
(221.9) |
||
PPP non-recourse |
(87.6) |
(79.1) |
(79.1) |
(79.1) |
(79.1) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(668.0) |
(604.1) |
(716.1) |
(762.9) |
(780.9) |
Source: Renewi, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Financials
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