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Research: Metals & Mining
Silver Wheaton
Silver Wheaton |
Q3 results and Antamina stream purchase |
Q3 results |
Metals & mining |
11 November 2015 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
|
Excluding a US$154.0m impairment charge relating to its 777-mine gold stream beyond 2020 (which was in any case omitted from our long-term forecasts), Silver Wheaton’s (SLW) Q315 results were closely in line with our expectations. PBT was 3.5% higher than our forecast; PAT was 2.6% lower due to a higher than expected tax charge. More significantly, SLW has acquired a new silver stream from the world-class Antamina copper mine in Peru that has caused us to increase both our earnings forecasts and valuation.
Year end |
Revenue (US$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/13 |
706.5 |
381.6 |
106 |
45 |
11.7 |
3.6 |
12/14 |
620.2 |
268.8 |
75 |
26 |
16.6 |
2.1 |
12/15e |
644.3 |
223.6 |
54 |
20 |
23.0 |
1.6 |
12/16e |
886.6 |
314.1 |
78 |
30 |
16.0 |
2.4 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation and exceptional items.
Operations
Operationally, SLW posted both production and sales records in Q315, driven by production records at Salobo and Penasquito and a sales record at San Dimas. Sales at San Dimas in particular reversed the build-up of inventory in Q215, but were largely offset by under-sales at Yauliyacu and elsewhere. Gold production was lower at Sudbury (owing to planned maintenance), but higher than expected at both Constancia and Minto. The ramp-up of production at Salobo was weaker than expected in July and August, which resulted in an under-sale of gold during the quarter and consequently only a 1.6% decrease in payable ounces produced but not yet delivered overall, to 6.3Moz AgE.
Antamina stream acquisition
In addition to its Q315 results, Silver Wheaton also announced its acquisition of 100% of the silver attributable to Glencore from its 33.75% interest in the Antamina copper mine in Peru. SLW paid US$900m for the stream and will pay 20% of the spot price per silver ounce delivered. Production attributable to Silver Wheaton is forecast to be 1.0-1.5Moz Ag in Q415, followed by 5.1Moz per year for both FY16 and FY17 and 4.7Moz thereafter for a further 20 years (see page 3).
Valuation: 42.5% internal rate of return in US dollars
As a result of our long-term earnings upgrades on account of the Antamina stream acquisition (and contingent on SLW’s success against the CRA), we forecast a value per share of US$46.36, or C$61.59, in FY19 (vs US$41.43 or C$53.59 previously), representing a total internal rate of return to investors at the current share price of 42.5% in US dollar terms over five years (vs 38.2% previously). In the meantime, SLW trades on near-term financial ratios that are cheaper than its royalty/streaming ‘peers’ in 71% of instances considered (see Exhibit 3) and are cheaper than the miners themselves in c 46% of instances, despite being associated with materially less operational and cost risk, in particular.
Quarterly results and forecasts
Record attributable production was recorded at both Salobo and Penasquito and record sales at San Dimas (reversing the inventory build-up in Q215), although this was ostensibly offset by under-sales at Salobo, Yauliyacu and SLW’s ‘other’ silver assets, such that there was only a 1.6% decrease in payable silver equivalent ounces produced but not yet delivered, to 6.3Moz AgE, overall. Elsewhere, gold production was lower at Sudbury (owing to planned maintenance shutdowns), but higher than expected at both Constancia and Minto. A summary of Silver Wheaton’s underlying Q315 results and how they compared to both Q215 and our prior operating and financial forecasts is given in the table below. Note that Q415 forecasts now include the Antamina stream (see below).
Exhibit 1: Silver Wheaton FY15e forecasts, by quarter**
US$000s (unless otherwise stated) |
FY14** |
Q115 |
Q215 |
Q315e |
Q315a |
Q315 vs Q215 (%) |
Q315a vs Q315e (%) |
Q415e |
Q415e |
FY15e |
Silver production (koz) |
25,674 |
6,342 |
7,201 |
7,212 |
6,890 |
-4.3 |
-4.5 |
7,065 |
8,448 |
28,881 |
Gold production (oz) |
142,815 |
55,106 |
50,509 |
54,070 |
54,513 |
7.9 |
0.8 |
63,381 |
63,381 |
223,509 |
AgE production (koz) |
35,285 |
10,371 |
10,904 |
11,290 |
10,993 |
0.8 |
-2.6 |
11,737 |
13,188 |
45,341 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||
Silver sales (koz) |
23,484 |
5,665 |
5,575 |
7,212 |
6,575 |
17.9 |
-8.8 |
7,065 |
8,448 |
26,263 |
Gold sales (oz) |
139,522 |
28,399 |
60,974 |
54,070 |
48,077 |
-21.2 |
-11.1 |
63,381 |
63,381 |
200,831 |
AgE sales (koz) |
32,891 |
7,723 |
10,043 |
11,290 |
10,194 |
1.5 |
-9.7 |
11,737 |
13,188 |
41,087 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||
Avg realised Ag price (US$/oz) |
18.92 |
16.95 |
16.42 |
14.90 |
15.05 |
-8.3 |
1.0 |
15.82 |
14.87 |
15.69 |
Avg realised Au price (US$/oz) |
1,261 |
1,214 |
1,195 |
1,124 |
1,130 |
-5.4 |
0.5 |
1,166 |
1,112 |
1,156 |
Avg realised AgE price (US$/oz) |
18.86 |
16.90 |
16.38 |
14.90 |
15.03 |
-8.2 |
0.9 |
15.82 |
14.87 |
15.68 |
|
|
|
|
|||||||
Avg Ag cash cost (US$/oz) |
4.14 |
4.14 |
4.26 |
4.55 |
4.26 |
0.0 |
-6.4 |
4.57 |
4.70 |
4.38 |
Avg Au cash cost (US$/oz) |
386 |
388 |
395 |
395 |
389 |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
392 |
390 |
391 |
Avg AgE cash cost (US$/oz) |
4.59 |
4.46 |
4.76 |
4.80 |
4.58 |
-3.8 |
-4.6 |
4.87 |
4.88 |
4.71 |
|
||||||||||
Sales |
620,176 |
130,504 |
164,435 |
168,228 |
153,251 |
-6.8 |
-8.9 |
185,673 |
196,108 |
644,298 |
Cost of sales |
|
|
|
|||||||
Cost of sales, excluding depletion |
151,097 |
34,464 |
47,795 |
54,157 |
46,708 |
-2.3 |
-13.8 |
57,110 |
64,415 |
193,382 |
Depletion |
160,180 |
32,045 |
53,327 |
54,388 |
45,248 |
-15.1 |
-16.8 |
58,056 |
63,805 |
194,424 |
Total cost of sales |
311,277 |
66,509 |
101,122 |
108,545 |
91,956 |
-9.1 |
-15.3 |
115,166 |
128,220 |
387,807 |
Earnings from operations |
308,899 |
63,995 |
63,313 |
59,683 |
61,295 |
-3.2 |
2.7 |
70,507 |
67,888 |
256,492 |
Expenses and other income |
|
|
|
|||||||
- General and administrative* |
37,860 |
8,170 |
7,886 |
6,486 |
7,170*** |
-9.1 |
10.5 |
6,486 |
6,486 |
29,712 |
- Foreign exchange (gain)/loss |
(609) |
(373) |
0 |
|
|
(373) |
||||
- Net interest paid/(received) |
2,277 |
1,500 |
798 |
888 |
428 |
-46.4 |
-51.8 |
888 |
428 |
3,154 |
- Other (income)/expense |
2,439 |
2,297 |
992 |
1,190 |
763 |
-23.1 |
-35.9 |
1,190 |
1,148 |
5,200 |
Total expenses and other income |
41,967 |
11,594 |
9,676 |
8,564 |
8,361 |
-13.6 |
-2.4 |
8,564 |
8,062 |
37,693 |
Earnings before income taxes |
266,932 |
52,401 |
53,637 |
51,120 |
52,934 |
-1.3 |
3.5 |
61,943 |
59,826 |
218,799 |
Income tax expense/(recovery) |
(1,045) |
2,982 |
(89) |
3,133**** |
-3,620.2 |
N/A |
6,026 |
|||
Marginal tax rate (%) |
-0.4 |
5.7 |
-0.2 |
0.0 |
5.9 |
-3,050.0 |
N/A |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.8 |
Net earnings |
267,977 |
49,419 |
53,726 |
51,120 |
49,801 |
-7.3 |
-2.6 |
61,943 |
59,826 |
212,773 |
|
|
|
||||||||
Basic EPS (US$) |
0.75 |
0.13 |
0.15 |
0.13 |
0.12 |
-20.0 |
-7.7 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.54 |
Diluted EPS (US$) |
0.74 |
0.13 |
0.15 |
0.13 |
0.12 |
-20.0 |
-7.7 |
0.15 |
0.15 |
0.54 |
Source: Silver Wheaton, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Forecasts exclude stock-based compensation; **excluding impairments; ***includes 1,419 of equity settled stock-based compensation; ****after excluding taxation effect of impairments.
Despite a slower July and August, the ramp-up at Salobo recovered once again in September, with capacity utilisation exceeding 90%. It is expected to reach 100% in Q415. Production at Penasquito similarly reached a record as substantial mining took place in the heart of the deposit and despite the suspension of construction of the Northern Well Field project owing to an illegal blockade by a local community. Penasquito continues to seek an equitable resolution of the matter with the community, while taking steps to enforce its contractual rights. In addition, it is also advancing alternatives to complete the project, without crossing through the affected community lands. The operator, Goldcorp, believes that there will be a resolution of the matter in time to meet the future water needs of the mine. In the meantime, the Metallurgical Enhancement Project feasibility study remains on schedule to be completed in early 2016. Elsewhere, stripping at Minto North is also reportedly on schedule, with ore expected to be delivered to the mill in December 2015 and high grade ore in Q216.
Our estimate of 54c for FY15 compares to an average consensus basic EPS estimate of 52.6c, within the range 42-56c (source: Bloomberg, 10 November 2015). Note that our updated forecasts for Q415 and FY16 now both include the Antamina stream acquisition (see below).
By contrast, our basic EPS estimate of 78c for FY16 (vs 68c pre-Antamina, see Exhibit 4) compares to an average consensus estimate of 65.3c, within the range 29-83c. Note that our FY16 estimates are based on precious metals price forecasts of US$16.11/oz Ag and US$1,224/oz Au.
Antamina stream acquisition
In addition to its Q315 results, Silver Wheaton also announced its acquisition of 100% of the silver attributable to Glencore from its 33.75% interest in the Antamina copper mine in Peru (note that SLW already has a prior commercial relationship with Glencore via its Yauliyacu stream). SLW paid US$900m for the stream and will pay 20% of the spot price per silver ounce delivered. Once 140Moz of silver has been delivered (after approximately 30 years), the stream will reduce to two-thirds of Glencore’s interest (ie 22.5% of the silver produced by the mine).
Production attributable to Silver Wheaton is forecast to be 1.0-1.5Moz Ag in Q415, followed by 5.1Moz per year for both FY16 and FY17 and 4.7Moz thereafter for a further 20 years. Reserves are sufficient to support mining activities until 2028. Measured and indicated resources are capable of supporting mining for an additional 12 years thereafter (assuming conversion into reserves) and inferred resources for a further 27 years after that. Note that the main restriction to the immediate conversion of resources to reserves is the capacity of Antamina’s tailings ponds.
Based on our long-term silver price forecasts, we estimate that Antamina will therefore contribute an average of US$95.2m to SLW’s cash-flows per year and, as such, is approximately equivalent to SLW’s Salobo stream in terms of its scale and the quality of the underlying asset.
The Canada Revenue Agency
In response to a notice of reassessment from the Canada Revenue Agency on 24 September, Silver Wheaton duly confirmed that it has filed notices of objection for each of the reassessed tax years. As such, it is in a position to lodge an appeal with the CRA (a process that would typically last one to two years). However, it has indicated that it is more likely it will wait for a further 91 days after filing a notice of objection (ie until approximately January 2016), after which it will exercise its legal right to appeal directly to the Tax Court of Canada to reach a conclusion as quickly as possible via litigation. Initially, this would involve a case ‘discovery phase’, in which an assessment of each side's strengths and weaknesses would be considered. Typically, this phase takes six to nine months, during which a meaningful amount of cases are settled out of court. If no agreement can be reached, the case will proceed to court, likely to be approximately in early 2017.
Now that a notice of reassessment has been received, SLW is obliged to make a deposit of 50% of the disputed tax, interest and penalties (ie C$177m, US$133m, or US$0.33/share) on filing a notice of objection. Note that any cash outlay will be accounted for as a refundable deposit.
A brief consideration of some of the aspects of the case
As stated in our note of 9 July, the income the CRA is seeking to tax is earned by foreign subsidiaries from assets outside Canada. Key to the CRA’s case appears to be the assertion that services bought and contracted between SLW’s Vancouver and offshore offices were mispriced and that the profit split between the two jurisdictions was therefore distorted. Silver Wheaton is limited in what it can say publicly ahead of any legal action. However, investors should be aware of three matters relevant to this assertion:
1.
Silver Wheaton’s offshore Cayman subsidiary has an independent board and management.
2.
Silver Wheaton was aware of the issue of transfer pricing long before it received the CRA’s proposal letter of 6 July and employed a leading firm to advise on a reasonable range of prices to charge between the group’s different offices (of which it confirms that it always chose the most conservative, ie the highest price). As such, it is not the case that no transfer pricing was being employed and hence the validity of the CRA’s case (in our opinion) will rest on its being able to prove that the value placed on those services was incorrect (and that therefore the opinion of SLW’s consultant was also incorrect), rather than whether or not they were being charged and paid for.
3.
Since 2009, Silver Wheaton has employed the deposit method of accounting for its streams, which involves the accelerated depreciation of individual streams. Therefore, in any event (and notwithstanding point 1, above), taxable income for many of SLW’s newer streams will have been zero during the period under review.
Otherwise, it remains the case that: 1) the structure and relationship between SLW and its foreign subsidiaries is common and used by many companies both globally and within Canada; 2) any ruling against SLW could expose other multinational companies operating out of Canada to similar treatment; and 3) the CRA’s approach to the 2011-14 tax years remains unclear. In our opinion, this last point may be a risk in that the CRA may seek to similarly reassess tax during 2011-14. However, it could also be an opportunity in that its approach to these years therefore appears inconsistent compared to 2005-10.
Valuation
The effect of the Antamina stream acquisition increases our forecast of SLW’s EPS in FY19 from US$1.64 to US$1.84.
Excluding FY04 (part year) and FY08 (during which there was an exceptional write-down), Silver Wheaton's shares have historically traded on an average P/E multiple of 25.3x current-year basic EPS (cf 23.0x currently).
Exhibit 2: Silver Wheaton historic current year P/E multiples |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: FY14 EPS excludes impairment charge. |
Applying this multiple to our updated long-term EPS forecast of US$1.84 per share in FY19 (vs US$1.64 previously) implies a potential share value of US$46.36, or C$61.59 (cf US$41.43 or C$53.59 previously).
In the meantime, the table below shows Silver Wheaton’s current rating on a number of valuation measures relative to both a sample of its ‘peer’ royalty/streaming companies and a sample of gold miners. Using our forecasts in Exhibits 1 and 4, it is notable that Silver Wheaton trades on multiples that are cheaper than its royalty/streaming ‘peers’ in 71% of instances considered. It also trades on multiples that are cheaper than the gold miners themselves in c 46% of instances considered, despite being associated with materially less operational and cost risks, in particular.
Exhibit 3: Silver Wheaton comparative valuation vs a sample of operating and royalty/streaming companies
P/E (x) |
Yield (%) |
P/CF |
||||
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
|
Royalty companies |
||||||
Franco-Nevada |
81.3 |
74.7 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
23.9 |
21.5 |
Royal Gold |
31.8 |
23.0 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
9.9 |
8.5 |
Sandstorm Gold |
0.0 |
0.0 |
9.4 |
9.0 |
||
Osisko |
40.0 |
38.9 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
35.7 |
24.4 |
Average |
51.0 |
45.5 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
19.7 |
15.8 |
Silver Wheaton (our forecasts) |
23.8 |
16.4 |
1.6 |
2.4 |
11.6 |
8.5 |
SLW (consensus) |
24.0 |
19.3 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
12.9 |
9.4 |
Operators |
||||||
Barrick |
25.8 |
16.4 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
Newmont |
15.3 |
21.4 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
Goldcorp |
100.6 |
43.6 |
3.8 |
2.0 |
7.0 |
6.1 |
Newcrest |
20.5 |
12.0 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
7.1 |
5.8 |
Kinross |
0.0 |
0.0 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
||
Agnico-Eagle |
64.7 |
64.8 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
8.2 |
8.4 |
Eldorado |
62.6 |
34.2 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
10.9 |
8.6 |
Yamana |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
||
Average |
48.2 |
32.1 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
5.9 |
5.3 |
Source: Bloomberg, Edison Investment Research. Note: Peers priced on 10 November 2015.
Financials
At 30 September, SLW has US$566.5m of net debt on its balance sheet (vs US$643.1m at end-June – consistent with its performance of generating c US$100m from operating activities per quarter). Since the quarter’s end, it has announced its US$900m investment into the Antamina stream acquisition; it has also repurchased 645,389 of its own shares under its share repurchase programme at an average price of US$11.86 and therefore an implied consideration of US$7.7m. SLW has TSX approval to repurchase up to 20,229,671 common shares (representing 5% of the total outstanding common shares at September 11, 2015) under a Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) over 12 months starting after TSX approval (although potential future repurchases are excluded from our forecasts on the basis of the uncertainty surrounding the size, price and timing of any such repurchases).
In the aftermath of its Q415 investments, we forecast that SLW will have net debt on its balance sheet of US$1,345.0m at end-December 2015, equating to a gearing (net debt/equity) ratio of 29.7% and a leverage (net debt/[net debt+equity]) ratio of 22.9%. Nevertheless, such a level of debt is well within the tolerances required of its banking covenants that:
■
net debt should be no more than 0.75x tangible net worth (which we estimate to be US$4,529.8m at end-December 2015); and
■
interest should be no less than 3x covered by EBITDA.
Note that the interest rate associated with SLW’s revolving debt facility is Libor plus 120-220bp.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
US$'000s |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015e |
2016e |
||
Dec |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
849,560 |
706,472 |
620,176 |
644,298 |
886,611 |
Cost of Sales |
(117,489) |
(139,352) |
(151,097) |
(193,382) |
(263,923) |
||
Gross Profit |
732,071 |
567,120 |
469,079 |
450,916 |
622,688 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
701,232 |
531,812 |
431,219 |
421,204 |
592,976 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
600,003 |
387,659 |
271,039 |
226,780 |
321,995 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
(68,151) |
(154,021) |
0 |
||
Other |
788 |
(11,202) |
(1,830) |
(4,827) |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
600,791 |
376,457 |
201,058 |
67,932 |
321,995 |
||
Net Interest |
0 |
(6,083) |
(2,277) |
(3,154) |
(7,936) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
600,003 |
381,576 |
268,762 |
223,626 |
314,059 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
600,791 |
370,374 |
198,781 |
64,778 |
314,059 |
Tax |
(14,755) |
5,121 |
1,045 |
(6,026) |
0 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
586,036 |
375,495 |
267,977 |
212,773 |
314,060 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
586,036 |
375,495 |
199,826 |
58,752 |
314,059 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
353.9 |
355.6 |
359.4 |
396.9 |
403.4 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
166 |
106 |
75 |
54 |
78 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c) |
|
165 |
105 |
74 |
54 |
78 |
|
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
166 |
106 |
56 |
15 |
78 |
Dividend per share (c) |
35 |
45 |
26 |
20 |
30 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
86.2 |
80.3 |
75.6 |
70.0 |
70.2 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
82.5 |
75.3 |
69.5 |
65.4 |
66.9 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
70.6 |
54.9 |
43.7 |
35.2 |
36.3 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
2,403,958 |
4,288,557 |
4,309,270 |
5,894,464 |
5,693,482 |
Intangible Assets |
2,281,234 |
4,242,086 |
4,270,971 |
5,856,165 |
5,655,183 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,347 |
5,670 |
5,427 |
5,427 |
5,427 |
||
Investments |
121,377 |
40,801 |
32,872 |
32,872 |
32,872 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
785,379 |
101,287 |
338,493 |
2,516 |
70,600 |
Stocks |
966 |
845 |
26,263 |
751 |
1,033 |
||
Debtors |
6,197 |
4,619 |
4,132 |
1,765 |
2,429 |
||
Cash |
778,216 |
95,823 |
308,098 |
0 |
67,138 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(49,458) |
(21,134) |
(16,171) |
(364,297) |
(38,250) |
Creditors |
(20,898) |
(21,134) |
(16,171) |
(17,797) |
(38,250) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(28,560) |
0 |
0 |
(346,500) |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(32,805) |
(1,002,164) |
(1,002,856) |
(1,002,856) |
(1,002,856) |
Long term borrowings |
(21,500) |
(998,136) |
(998,518) |
(998,518) |
(998,518) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(11,305) |
(4,028) |
(4,338) |
(4,338) |
(4,338) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
3,107,074 |
3,366,546 |
3,628,736 |
4,529,827 |
4,722,976 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
720,209 |
540,597 |
434,582 |
445,882 |
612,483 |
Net Interest |
0 |
(6,083) |
(2,277) |
(3,154) |
(7,936) |
||
Tax |
(725) |
(154) |
(204) |
(6,026) |
0 |
||
Capex |
(641,976) |
(2,050,681) |
(146,249) |
(1,779,618) |
(70,000) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
12,919 |
58,004 |
6,819 |
769,000 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(123,852) |
(160,013) |
(79,775) |
(80,682) |
(120,909) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(33,425) |
(1,618,330) |
212,896 |
(654,598) |
413,638 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(761,581) |
(728,156) |
902,313 |
690,420 |
1,345,018 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
(12,139) |
(1,003) |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(728,156) |
902,313 |
690,420 |
1,345,018 |
931,380 |
Source: Company sources, Edison Investment Research
|
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