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Currency in EUR
Last close As at 25/03/2023
EUR1.61
▲ −0.04 (−2.42%)
Market capitalisation
EUR262m
Research: TMT
MGI – Media and Games Invest (MGI) is increasingly focused on its vertically integrated multichannel advertising platform, retaining a core of games that serve to generate first-party data and provide an efficient sandpit for developing new services. FY22 results were at the top end of guidance (as revised upwards at Q322), despite the headwind of lower market advertising rates. This scenario has continued in Q123, and we have taken a cautionary approach to our revised FY23 forecasts, which will be reviewed when management issues guidance for the year at the Q1 update. Medium-term guidance remains for a revenue CAGR of 25–30%. The shares are valued well below peers and the level indicated by a discounted cash flow (DCF).
MGI – Media and Games Invest |
Sharpening focus in digital advertising |
FY22 results |
Media |
7 March 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
MGI – Media and Games Invest is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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MGI – Media and Games Invest (MGI) is increasingly focused on its vertically integrated multichannel advertising platform, retaining a core of games that serve to generate first-party data and provide an efficient sandpit for developing new services. FY22 results were at the top end of guidance (as revised upwards at Q322), despite the headwind of lower market advertising rates. This scenario has continued in Q123, and we have taken a cautionary approach to our revised FY23 forecasts, which will be reviewed when management issues guidance for the year at the Q1 update. Medium-term guidance remains for a revenue CAGR of 25–30%. The shares are valued well below peers and the level indicated by a discounted cash flow (DCF).
Year end |
Revenue |
Adj EBITDA* (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
EV/EBITDA* (x) |
P/E |
12/21 |
252.2 |
71.2 |
26.9 |
0.20 |
8.1 |
8.1 |
12/22 |
324.4 |
93.2 |
30.3 |
0.13 |
6.2 |
13.3 |
12/23e |
343.0 |
88.0 |
22.8 |
0.09 |
6.4 |
19.7 |
12/24e |
388.5 |
100.0 |
32.7 |
0.13 |
5.6 |
13.4 |
Note: *EBITDA, PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Good progress building scale
FY22 revenue growth was 29% (18% organic), with 16% progress in Q422. This reflects the growing base of new advertising and publishing software customers, with 551 on board at the year-end, up 133 on the prior year. Advertising is now 80% of group revenues, with the balance generated from consumer games. FY22 adjusted EBITDA margin was 29%, a touch ahead of FY21 at 28%. Adjustments of €8.4m were weighted to Q422, with €5.1m attributable to one-off costs of moving the jurisdiction from Malta to Sweden, various M&A transactions and severance costs. MGI also wrote down the fair value of some smaller, non-strategic games’ assets by €23.6m as its emphasis pivots further towards digital advertising. This accounts for the bulk of the purchase price allocation amortisation of €41.5m taken for the year.
Forecasts reflect caution on FY23 advertising
In the temporary absence of guidance, we are taking a cautious approach to our FY23 modelling, given that digital advertising rates, as measured by cost per mille (CPM), are still retrenching. As the year progresses, the comparators will become easier. Medium-term guidance remains for a revenue CAGR of 25–30%, delivering an adjusted EBITDA margin in the 25–30% range and an EBIT margin of 15–20%. Our preliminary thoughts on FY24 show margins remaining in the guided range.
Valuation: Substantial scope for uplift
MGI’s share price is down 6% year-to-date, versus global adtech peers up 6% on average, with quoted gaming companies posting average gains of 4%. MGI’s shares are valued below both sets of peers. Parity averaged across FY22–24 EV/sales and EV/adjusted EBITDA would imply a share price of €3.50 (was €4.43 in FY21–23), with a DCF indicating a value of €3.80 (was €4.21).
FY22 results show strong growth
Revenue growth slowed in Q422, as had been expected, given the lower CPMs in the market, which mean that more adverts have to be shown to match the previous income levels – difficult in a market where brand owner sentiment is, at best, fragile. This is reflected in the net dollar expansion rate from existing customers dipping to 96% in Q422, with the boost to the top line coming from newly recruited customers, who were both on the advertiser and publisher side. For existing customers generating over US$100k of revenue, the retention rate was 97%.
Exhibit 1: Quarterly summary results
€m |
Q122 |
Q222 |
Q322 |
Q422 |
Revenue |
65.9 |
78.1 |
87.6 |
92.9 |
y-o-y revenue growth (%) |
27% |
37% |
39% |
16% |
q-o-q revenue growth (%) |
-18% |
19% |
12% |
6% |
EBITDA |
16.9 |
20.0 |
21.4 |
26.5 |
Adjusted EBITDA |
17.6 |
21.1 |
23.0 |
31.5 |
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) |
27% |
27% |
26% |
34% |
Source: MGI
The adjustments to EBITDA largely relate to non-cash employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) adjustments, the lay-offs of 50 full-time equivalents in the games workforce and the relocation to Sweden, which was part of a broader programme to improve institutional investability, including improving corporate governance standards at the group. There were additional elements related to portfolio activity and operational changes in connection to the rebalancing of the games portfolio.
Net finance charges increased to €38.0m from €21.9m, reflecting approximately €23.0m of cash interest on the MGI bonds, combined with IFRS non-cash interest on earnouts and the one-time set-up costs of the securitisation programme. Strong free cash flow, aided by a securitisation programme, helped reduce the leverage ratio to 2.9x at the year-end, from 3.7x at the half-year. In February 2023, MGI disposed of its 8% shareholding in quoted games company EG7 as part of its refocusing programme. Had this been done during FY22, the pro-forma leverage would have reduced to 2.7x, based on net debt of €256m (from the published year-end net debt of €274m), well below the target limit of 3.0x.
The securitisation programme covers up to €75m of receivables (primarily from Fortune 500 companies) at a cost of funds rate (similar to Euribor) plus 1.55%, on a non-recourse basis, with a cash inflow of €48m received prior to the year-end.
Very good potential for further progress
With a huge target addressable market (Statista quotes a global market value of US$621bn for FY23), there is a long runway until market share starts to become an issue for MGI. It is more the case that as the group builds scale, it attracts greater numbers of software customers due to the increasing reach and also attracts a higher calibre of advertisers, with larger budgets.
Games remain an intrinsic element of the growth strategy, but focused on mobile and casual, where the audiences are larger and faster growing than for premium MMO (massively multiplayer online) games. MGI operates a portfolio of over 5k mobile and casual games, with more than one billion registered players, which give it a rich first-party data resource of value of itself, but also of intrinsic use as a test bed for developments in the digital advertising operations.
Exhibit 2: Revisions to numbers
Revenue (€m) |
Adjusted EBITDA (€m) |
EPS (€) |
|||||||
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
|
2022 |
322.0 |
324.4 |
+1 |
88.5 |
93.2 |
+5 |
0.22 |
0.13 |
-35 |
2023e |
393.5 |
343.0 |
-13 |
102.5 |
88.0 |
-14 |
0.26 |
0.09 |
-65 |
2024e |
- |
388.5 |
N/A |
- |
100.0 |
N/A |
- |
0.13 |
N/A |
Source: MGI accounts, Edison Investment Research
Management guidance is for a medium-term revenue CAGR of 25–30%, which looks ambitious for the current year, given the economic backdrop. However, Verve Group, which is the holding company name for the various components of the programmatic digital advertising offering, added 60 new customers (not yet active) to its roster in Q422, who will add to its revenue-generating potential in FY23. As well as other games publishers, the list has a number of interesting names including Curiosity Media (Spanish-learning websites) and Chegg (North American edtech).
Innovation and partnerships add opportunities
We have outlined some of the group’s innovation initiatives in previous reports and covered the strategic partnership with Google in our November update. The market continues to undergo significant changes, mostly driven by the shift in attitudes (societal and regulatory) towards privacy. As ever, where there is change, there is opportunity.
Developments and partnerships include:
■
Google Open Bidding, as described previously.
■
Getty Images, whereby brands can engage consumers with Visual Intent contextual targeting, that is serving them with ads directly relevant to the imagery being used, rather than by linking to textual content.
■
A Shopify app integration, suitable for small business e-commerce companies.
■
Verve’s Moments.AI and the Visual Intent contextual targeting solutions working with Adelaide to deliver high-quality measurement metrics.
■
Connected TV re-targeting, unlocking previously untapped games console audiences for re-engagement. This is a good example of cross-channel user acquisition combined with player lifetime expansion.
Combined with M&A coming back into the equation as the group’s leverage reduces, and assuming further moderation in vendors’ expectations on pricing, these initiatives give us confidence to believe that the medium-term growth anticipated by management is feasible and that MGI should be able to deliver the degree of return envisaged.
Valuation
As previously, we evaluate MGI compared to three sets of peers: (relatively) pure adtech, ad software combined with content (games or other) and (relatively) pure gaming. Although this leads to a cumbersome peer table, it allows us to see the slightly different dynamics. The gaming companies are being accorded slightly higher ratings on a current year EV/sales and EV/EBITDA basis, but a discount on P/E. On FY23 numbers, there is less differential.
MGI’s shares are trading at a discount across EV/sales, EV/EBITDA and P/E for FY22, FY23e and FY24e. With P/E more variable due to tax regimes, etc, were the shares to trade at EV/sales and EV/EBITDA parity to the averages of these peers across the three years, MGI’s share price would be €3.50, from €4.43 when this exercise was last carried out in November.
Exhibit 3: Adtech, ad software and gaming peer valuations
|
Price |
YTD perf |
Market cap |
Net debt |
EV/sales (x) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
P/E (x) |
|||||||
Company |
(local ccy) |
(%) |
(€m) |
(€m) |
FY0 |
FY1e |
FY2e |
FY0 |
FY1e |
FY2e |
FY0 |
FY1e |
FY2e |
|
Ad-tech |
||||||||||||||
The Trade Desk |
57.3 |
28 |
26,446 |
(1352) |
17.0 |
14.1 |
11.3 |
41.2 |
37.2 |
29.5 |
55.8 |
51.4 |
42.2 |
|
Pubmatic |
13.6 |
6 |
677 |
(163) |
2.1 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
5.6 |
6.8 |
5.6 |
25.1 |
383.0 |
37.3 |
|
Viant Technology |
4.8 |
18 |
276 |
(193) |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
- |
16.5 |
6.5 |
- |
- |
- |
|
Magnite |
10.8 |
2 |
1,369 |
374 |
3.6 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
10.4 |
10.6 |
8.4 |
14.9 |
18.9 |
12.4 |
|
AcuityAds Holdings |
2.3 |
11 |
91 |
(64) |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
6.2 |
5.0 |
3.6 |
- |
- |
- |
|
DoubleVerify Holdings |
27.7 |
26 |
4,314 |
(248) |
9.5 |
7.7 |
6.3 |
31.1 |
25.5 |
19.8 |
110.8 |
85.4 |
54.3 |
|
Integral Ad Science Hold |
11.9 |
35 |
1,724 |
127 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
3.7 |
16.1 |
13.6 |
11.2 |
317.0 |
129.8 |
44.5 |
|
Quotient Technology |
3.3 |
(4) |
300 |
(6) |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
16.1 |
8.6 |
7.3 |
- |
- |
662.0 |
|
LiveRamp Holdings |
24.8 |
6 |
1,507 |
(542) |
2.0 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
22.6 |
15.3 |
10.7 |
50.3 |
34.1 |
23.5 |
|
Digital Turbine |
11.1 |
(27) |
1,033 |
367 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
7.6 |
8.9 |
8.5 |
6.8 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
|
Tremor |
315.2 |
19 |
512 |
(310) |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
6.5 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
|
Criteo |
32.5 |
25 |
1,708 |
(349) |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
5.8 |
5.2 |
4.6 |
12.8 |
12.5 |
10.8 |
|
YOC |
12.7 |
(5) |
44 |
(1) |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
12.1 |
9.0 |
7.2 |
18.6 |
13.6 |
11.2 |
|
Median |
11 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
11.2 |
9.0 |
7.3 |
21.8 |
26.5 |
23.5 |
||||
Ad-software and content |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
AppLovin |
14.0 |
32 |
4,939 |
2094 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
7.1 |
7.0 |
6.0 |
- |
51.2 |
25.8 |
|
IronSource |
30.9 |
8 |
10,881 |
1047 |
9.3 |
5.9 |
5.0 |
- |
52.1 |
22.9 |
- |
112.0 |
35.4 |
|
Azerion |
2.9 |
(46) |
326 |
176 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
9.1 |
6.7 |
5.3 |
- |
35.0 |
17.3 |
|
Future |
1,333.0 |
5 |
1,824 |
560 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
7.1 |
7.1 |
6.7 |
8.3 |
8.8 |
8.2 |
|
Median |
7 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
7.1 |
7.0 |
6.4 |
8.3 |
43.1 |
21.5 |
||||
Gaming |
||||||||||||||
Embracer Group |
53.6 |
13 |
5,746 |
1395 |
4.6 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
11.2 |
8.3 |
6.3 |
- |
13.3 |
12.8 |
|
Stillfront Group |
20.1 |
14 |
922 |
334 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
5.7 |
5.1 |
4.9 |
8.0 |
7.4 |
6.6 |
|
Paradox Interactive |
234.0 |
10 |
2,212 |
(54) |
12.2 |
10.3 |
9.3 |
17.9 |
14.3 |
12.9 |
35.4 |
30.4 |
27.3 |
|
Modern Times Group |
72.1 |
(19) |
807 |
178 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
8.7 |
8.7 |
7.8 |
13.0 |
16.8 |
13.1 |
|
Rovio Entertainment |
8.2 |
34 |
622 |
(106) |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
9.6 |
9.5 |
9.4 |
18.8 |
19.4 |
18.4 |
|
Team17 |
459.0 |
4 |
757 |
(63) |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
13.3 |
12.6 |
11.6 |
18.5 |
17.9 |
16.6 |
|
Median |
10 |
3.3 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
10.4 |
9.1 |
8.6 |
18.5 |
17.3 |
14.8 |
||||
Total average |
9 |
2.6 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
9.6 |
8.4 |
7.4 |
16.2 |
29.0 |
20.0 |
||||
Media & Games Invest |
1.7 |
(4) |
263 |
199 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
5.4 |
5.6 |
4.9 |
13.7 |
20.4 |
13.8 |
|
Premium/(discount) to ad-tech |
(15) |
(22%) |
(22%) |
(29%) |
(52%) |
(38%) |
(33%) |
(37%) |
(23%) |
(41%) |
||||
Premium/(discount) to ad-software and content |
(11) |
(45%) |
(48%) |
(51%) |
(23%) |
(21%) |
(23%) |
66% |
(53%) |
(36%) |
||||
Premium/(discount) to gaming |
(14) |
(57%) |
(33%) |
(35%) |
(47%) |
(39%) |
(43%) |
(26%) |
18% |
(7%) |
||||
Premium/(discount) to total |
(13) |
(45%) |
(36%) |
(40%) |
(43%) |
(34%) |
(34%) |
(16%) |
(30%) |
(31%) |
||||
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices as at 6 March 2023.
DCF sense check
We have also repeated our DCF analysis, using a WACC of 9.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%, as previously. This infers a valuation of €3.80, below the €4.21 we published last time, reflecting the more cautious short-term growth assumptions, and 9% ahead of the implied valuation derived from peers, above.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
€'k |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
140,220 |
252,166 |
324,444 |
343,000 |
388,500 |
Operating costs excl. D&A |
(104,469) |
(187,124) |
(239,691) |
(260,274) |
(293,951) |
||
Adj. EBITDA |
|
|
35,751 |
71,216 |
93,153 |
88,000 |
100,000 |
EBITDA |
|
|
35,751 |
65,042 |
84,753 |
82,726 |
94,549 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
28,380 |
48,768 |
68,288 |
62,892 |
72,603 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(8,137) |
(11,964) |
(14,853) |
(17,824) |
(21,388) |
||
Exceptionals |
(6,993) |
(4,708) |
(27,100) |
(3,500) |
(3,500) |
||
Share-based payments |
(2,209) |
(1,466) |
(1,613) |
(1,774) |
(1,951) |
||
Reported operating profit |
11,041 |
36,804 |
26,618 |
39,795 |
45,763 |
||
Net Interest |
(7,140) |
(21,919) |
(37,983) |
(40,044) |
(39,918) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
21,240 |
26,850 |
30,304 |
22,848 |
32,685 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
3,901 |
14,887 |
(11,365) |
(249) |
5,845 |
Reported tax |
(1,194) |
1,169 |
(9,064) |
(1,511) |
(3,396) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
15,281 |
28,018 |
21,194 |
14,394 |
21,220 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
2,707 |
16,055 |
(20,429) |
(1,760) |
2,449 |
||
Minority interests |
(352) |
(7) |
(88) |
0 |
0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
15,633 |
28,019 |
21,056 |
14,394 |
21,220 |
||
Net income (reported) |
3,059 |
16,061 |
(20,341) |
(1,760) |
2,449 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
85.5 |
141.7 |
156.2 |
159.2 |
159.2 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (€) |
|
|
0.18 |
0.20 |
0.13 |
0.09 |
0.13 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (€) |
|
|
0.16 |
0.20 |
0.12 |
0.08 |
0.12 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
0.04 |
0.11 |
(0.13) |
(0.01) |
0.02 |
Dividend (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
67.1 |
79.8 |
28.7 |
5.7 |
13.3 |
||
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%) |
25.5 |
28.2 |
28.7 |
25.7 |
25.7 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin (%) |
20.2 |
19.3 |
21.0 |
18.3 |
18.7 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
293,466 |
650,495 |
823,637 |
832,057 |
841,396 |
Intangible Assets |
272,829 |
605,746 |
791,284 |
798,863 |
807,361 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,742 |
4,681 |
5,522 |
6,363 |
7,204 |
||
Investments & other |
18,895 |
40,068 |
26,831 |
26,831 |
26,831 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
92,376 |
283,598 |
221,016 |
228,358 |
255,631 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
37,009 |
97,497 |
65,085 |
59,955 |
68,121 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
46,254 |
180,156 |
149,986 |
162,459 |
181,566 |
||
Other |
9,113 |
5,945 |
5,945 |
5,945 |
5,945 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
78,205 |
243,433 |
219,471 |
212,993 |
221,253 |
Creditors |
30,037 |
53,754 |
68,711 |
63,527 |
71,787 |
||
Short term borrowings |
6,089 |
32,020 |
31,903 |
31,903 |
31,903 |
||
Other financial liabilities |
30,155 |
137,611 |
97,515 |
97,515 |
97,515 |
||
Other non-financial liabilities |
11,924 |
20,048 |
21,342 |
20,048 |
20,048 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
130,792 |
383,168 |
503,443 |
498,443 |
498,443 |
Long term borrowings |
97,855 |
343,925 |
389,386 |
389,386 |
389,386 |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
32,937 |
39,243 |
114,057 |
109,057 |
109,057 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
176,845 |
307,493 |
321,739 |
348,980 |
377,331 |
Minority interests |
(60) |
(59) |
1,211 |
1,211 |
1,211 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
176,785 |
307,434 |
322,950 |
350,191 |
378,542 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
2,707 |
16,055 |
(20,429) |
(1,760) |
2,449 |
||
Depreciation & amortisation |
15,508 |
28,238 |
58,135 |
37,657 |
43,334 |
||
Working capital |
(4,543) |
(5,714) |
55,284 |
(54) |
94 |
||
Exceptional & other |
4,072 |
1,167 |
(2,755) |
1,774 |
1,951 |
||
Tax |
112 |
1,514 |
6,002 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net finance cost |
7,347 |
23,583 |
37,983 |
40,044 |
39,918 |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
25,203 |
64,843 |
134,220 |
77,662 |
87,747 |
Capex |
(19,098) |
(39,844) |
(46,007) |
(43,949) |
(50,544) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(18,609) |
(255,790) |
(138,000) |
(2,841) |
0 |
||
Equity financing |
26,876 |
109,338 |
27,900 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(31,304) |
(24,920) |
(53,413) |
(15,932) |
(18,095) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(16,932) |
(146,373) |
(75,300) |
14,940 |
19,108 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
36,976 |
57,690 |
198,600 |
273,906 |
258,830 |
FX |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
(3,782) |
5,463 |
(6) |
136 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
57,690 |
198,600 |
273,906 |
258,830 |
239,722 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
In a bid to increase operational oversight and financial stability, Pharnext has changed its legal framework, from a public limited company to a limited partnership with shares, following shareholder approval. Pharnext Développement, a joint-stock company controlled by Neovacs (with Hugo Brugière as chairman), will be the sole general partner with existing shareholders as limited partners. This follows the January 2022 commitment by Neovacs to provide liquidity support to Pharnext (up to €24m to December 2023 at Euribor +12%) to progress lead asset PXT3003 to final data readouts (expected in Q423). We revise our valuation for the estimated net debt figure and latest shares outstanding (875.2m as of 17 February 2023). While we keep our probability of success for PXT3003 at 70%, we raise our discount rate from 12.5% to 15% on account of recent biotech volatility and increased macro risks. Our valuation now stands at €217m (from €269m) or €0.25/basic share (vs €250/share previously, post the 5,000:1 share consolidation). We highlight that the valuation and opinions in this note are based solely on publicly available information and are consistent in our approach for our ongoing coverage of Pharnext.
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