SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust — H1 results confirm attractive potential total return

SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust (LSE: SEIT)

Last close As at 17/07/2024

GBP0.61

0.30 (0.49%)

Market capitalisation

GBP659m

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Research: Investment Companies

SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust — H1 results confirm attractive potential total return

SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust (SEEIT) has taken a prudent approach to discount rate adjustments in the period, leading to a 10.9p reduction in net asset value (NAV) per share from 101.5p to 90.6p. This was largely driven by a 100bp increase in the weighted average unlevered discount rate to 8.7%. The portfolio valuation at the end of H124 stood at £1,066m and investment cash inflow from the portfolio was £47m (a c 9% increase from H123). SEEIT has declared a total aggregate dividend of 3.12p per share for H124, which is in line with its FY24 target of 6.24p (a 4% y o y increase), while maintaining a dividend cash cover of 1.1x, which is expected to grow by the end of FY24 and over the medium term. SEEIT is currently trading at a 33% discount to NAV with a 10% dividend yield.

Written by

Andrew Keen

MD - Head of Content, Energy & Resources, Industrials

Investment Companies

SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust

H1 results confirm attractive potential total return

Investment trusts
Renewable energy infrastructure

5 December 2023

Price

61.6p

Market cap

£668m

AUM

£1,066m

NAV/share*

90.6p

Discount to NAV
*Including income. As at 4 December 2023.

33%

Dividend yield

10.0%

Ordinary shares in issue

1,085m

Code/ISN

SEIT/GB00BGHVZM47

AIC sector

Renewable Energy Infrastructure

52-week high/low

105.4p

59.9p

NAV* high/low
*Including income.

106.1p

90.6p

Net gearing (% of NAV, as of 30 September 2023)

44%

Fund objective

SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust’s objective is to generate an attractive total return for investors, comprising a stable dividend income and capital preservation, with the opportunity for capital growth.

Bull

SEEIT is providing a high dividend yield while trading at a significant discount to NAV, offering a total-return focus and an attractive entry position.

A progressive dividend, which has been significantly covered since inception.

Further scope for operation and efficiency gains within its portfolio.

Bear

Rising interest rates and potential rises in discount rates.

Counterparty risk (although SEEIT is well diversified).

Regulatory risk in some markets.

Analysts

Andrew Keen

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Harry Kilby

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust (SEEIT) has taken a prudent approach to discount rate adjustments in the period, leading to a 10.9p reduction in net asset value (NAV) per share from 101.5p to 90.6p. This was largely driven by a 100bp increase in the weighted average unlevered discount rate to 8.7%. The portfolio valuation at the end of H124 stood at £1,066m and investment cash inflow from the portfolio was £47m (a c 9% increase from H123). SEEIT has declared a total aggregate dividend of 3.12p per share for H124, which is in line with its FY24 target of 6.24p (a 4% yoy increase), while maintaining a dividend cash cover of 1.1x, which is expected to grow by the end of FY24 and over the medium term. SEEIT is currently trading at a 33% discount to NAV with a 10% dividend yield.

Year end 31 March

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

H124

NAV (£m)

323.5

694

1,073

1,125

983

NAV per share (p)

101

102.5

108.4

101.5

90.6p

DPS (p)

5.00

5.50

5.62

6.00

3.12

Dividend cover

1.5x

1.2x

1.19x

1.2x

1.1x

Source: SEEIT

The largest contributor to the decrease in SEEIT’s NAV per share was the use of higher discount rates to value the portfolio, reflecting both the higher interest rate environment and the increases to the risk premium applied to certain US assets. The total impact resulted in a 1% increase in the weighted average unlevered discount rate to 8.7%, leading to a £129m reduction in the company’s NAV (11.9p per share attributable to discount rates). The levered discount rate increased to 9.4%, off relatively conservative assumptions around refinancing. Assuming structural gearing was maintained at the 35% of NAV medium-term target, it would be closer to 10.5%. The rise in discount rate assumptions increased the portfolio valuation by 11.2% but the fund continues to trade at a considerable discount to the revised NAV (approximately 31%), implying the market is assuming a further 200bp plus rise in discount rates to the low double digits by our estimates.

During H124, SEEIT reported an £89m loss after tax, after £129m of unrealised valuation losses from discount rate increases. The company also invested £93m into predominantly organic investments and existing commitments. Positive inflation correlation on investment returns within the portfolio, however, increased since 31 March 2023 due to a larger number of new contractual inflation-linked contracts and renewals, particularly at Primary Energy. Investment cash flow from the portfolio was £47.4m, a c 9% increase from the comparative period (£43m at 30 September 2022), which was in line with management’s expectations. SEEIT is on track to meet its target aggregate dividend of 6.24p for FY24 and accumulated a dividend cash cover of 1.1x in the period (1.2x at 31 March 2023).

In our view, SEEIT presents an attractive 10% dividend yield and a potential 45% additional return if the discount to NAV closes. The investment manager sees the discount as unwarranted and not reflective of the value of the portfolio. To address the valuation gap, SEEIT has stated it is pursuing selective disposals to further strengthen its balance sheet and focus on delivering accretive projects and other upsides to drive growth in NAV. Buying back shares also remains an option following the £20m share buyback programme completed in H124.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by SDCL Energy Efficiency Income Trust. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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