GB Group — Reflecting recent M&A activity

GB Group (AIM: GBG)

Last close As at 28/03/2024

324.60

9.80 (3.11%)

Market capitalisation

GBP813m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

GB Group — Reflecting recent M&A activity

GB Group (GBG) has sold its marketing services business to HH Global Group for an undisclosed amount. This was not an area of focus for GBG and has been in managed decline for several years. Just before Christmas, GBG boosted its Fraud business with the acquisition of fraud investigation automation software from HooYu for £4m in equity. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the disposal and acquisition, leading to small upgrades to our EPS forecasts. Both deals emphasise the company’s strategy to focus on Identity, Location and Fraud.

Katherine Thompson

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

TMT

GB Group

Reflecting recent M&A activity

Disposal of business

Software & comp services

19 January 2021

Price

839p

Market cap

£1,646m

Net debt (£m) at end-H121

2.7

Shares in issue

196.2m

Free float

98%

Code

GBG

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(7.7)

2.3

16.0

Rel (local)

(10.3)

(10.4)

30.1

52-week high/low

954p

474p

Business description

GB Group is a specialist in identity data intelligence. Its products and services enable its customers to better understand and verify their customers and employees and are used across a range of fraud, risk management, compliance and customer on-boarding services. With headquarters in the UK, GB operates across 16 countries, has customers in more than 70 countries and generates more than 56% of revenues internationally.

Next events

FY21 trading update

April 2021

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

GB Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

GB Group (GBG) has sold its marketing services business to HH Global Group for an undisclosed amount. This was not an area of focus for GBG and has been in managed decline for several years. Just before Christmas, GBG boosted its Fraud business with the acquisition of fraud investigation automation software from HooYu for £4m in equity. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the disposal and acquisition, leading to small upgrades to our EPS forecasts. Both deals emphasise the company’s strategy to focus on Identity, Location and Fraud.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

EBITA*
(£m)

PBT*
(p)

Diluted EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

03/19

143.5

32.0

31.3

15.4

3.0

54.5

03/20

199.1

47.9

45.7

17.9

0.0

46.9

03/21e

198.7

45.0

43.4

16.7

6.0

50.2

03/22e

212.5

47.9

46.8

17.9

3.3

46.9

03/23e

235.4

53.7

52.8

20.0

3.6

41.9

Note: *EBITA, PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Selling non-core marketing services business

GBG has sold its marketing services business to HH Global Group Limited for an undisclosed amount (we estimate minimal proceeds). GBG reported this business within Unallocated revenues – in H121 revenues were £1.5m (1.5% of group revenue) and the operating loss was £0.5m. We were factoring in a decline in revenues with a similarly declining cost base, resulting in an operating loss forecast for FY21–23 for the business. We have stripped these out of our forecasts.

Recent acquisition of fraud business

On 14 December, GBG announced that it had acquired the Investigate 2020 subsidiary of HooYu in exchange for 447k GBG shares worth £4m. The business is being integrated into the Fraud division and will be marketed as GBG Investigate. Assuming this is a start-up business, we have reflected this in the Fraud division’s cost base. Overall, we increase our normalised diluted EPS forecasts by 1.4% in FY21, 0.5% in FY22 and 0.9% in FY23.

Valuation: Premium rating reflects growth potential

GBG trades at a premium to the UK software and IT services sectors and at the upper end of its ID management peer group on a P/E basis, reflecting its strong growth outlook (post COVID-19), high recurring revenues and strong balance sheet. Our reverse DCF analysis estimates the current share price is factoring in operating margins of 22.6% and revenue growth of c 16% per year from FY24, at the upper end of the group’s revenue and margin targets. Outside of faster than expected COVID-19 recovery, triggers for upside could include successful cross-selling from recent acquisitions, adoption of GBG’s combined identity/location solution and in the medium term, accretive acquisitions.

Changes to forecasts

Exhibit 1: Changes to forecasts

£m

FY21e

FY22e

FY23e

Old

New

Change

Y-o-y

Old

New

Change

Y-o-y

Old

New

Change

Y-o-y

Revenues

199.2

198.7

(0.2%)

(0.2%)

215.0

212.5

(1.1%)

6.9%

237.4

235.4

(0.8%)

10.8%

Gross profit

143.4

143.1

(0.2%)

(0.8%)

154.8

153.0

(1.1%)

6.9%

170.9

169.5

(0.8%)

10.8%

Gross margin

72.0%

72.0%

0.0%

(0.4%)

72.0%

72.0%

0.0%

0.0%

72.0%

72.0%

0.0%

0.0%

EBITDA

48.3

49.0

1.4%

(5.3%)

51.7

52.1

0.8%

6.3%

57.3

58.0

1.2%

11.4%

EBITDA margin

24.3%

24.7%

0.4%

(1.3%)

24.1%

24.5%

0.5%

(0.1%)

24.2%

24.6%

0.5%

0.1%

EBITA

44.3

45.0

1.5%

(6.1%)

47.5

47.9

0.8%

6.5%

53.0

53.7

1.3%

11.9%

EBITA margin

22.3%

22.7%

0.4%

(1.4%)

22.1%

22.6%

0.4%

(0.1%)

22.3%

22.8%

0.5%

0.2%

PBT

42.7

43.4

1.6%

(5.1%)

46.4

46.8

0.9%

8.0%

52.1

52.8

1.3%

12.8%

EPS - normalised, diluted (p)

16.5

16.7

1.4%

(6.7%)

17.8

17.9

0.5%

7.1%

19.8

20.0

0.9%

12.0%

EPS - reported (p)

7.3

7.5

3.5%

(14.4%)

8.5

8.7

1.4%

14.8%

10.8

11.1

2.0%

27.8%

DPS (p)

6.0

6.0

0.0%

N/A

3.3

3.3

0.0%

(45.0%)

3.6

3.6

0.0%

9.1%

Net debt/(cash)

15.5

15.4

(0.5%)

(55.5%)

(14.0)

(14.2)

1.1%

(192%)

(47.3)

(47.9)

1.2%

237.4%

Net debt/EBITDA

0.3

0.3

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Divisional forecasts

Revenue

Identity

115.8

115.8

0.0%

9.8%

125.8

125.8

0.0%

8.7%

139.4

139.4

0.0%

10.8%

Location

50.2

50.2

0.0%

-2.5%

54.2

54.2

0.0%

8.0%

60.7

60.7

0.0%

12.0%

Fraud

30.1

30.1

0.0%

-15.1%

32.5

32.5

0.0%

7.7%

35.3

35.3

0.0%

8.8%

Group

199.2*

198.7*

(0.2%)

-0.2%

215.0

212.5

(1.1%)

6.9%

237.4

235.4

(0.8%)

10.8%

Adjusted operating profit

Identity

37.2

37.2

0.0%

10.5%

38.1

38.1

0.0%

2.6%

42.2

42.2

0.0%

10.8%

Location

14.3

14.3

0.0%

-4.5%

15.2

15.2

0.0%

6.3%

17.0

17.0

0.0%

12.0%

Fraud

6.9

6.7

(2.6%)

-50.2%

9.1

8.4

(7.1%)

26.2%

9.9

9.5

(3.6%)

13.0%

Group

44.3

45.0

1.5%

-6.1%

47.5

47.9

0.8%

6.5%

53.0

53.7

1.3%

11.9%

Adjusted operating margin

Identity

32.1%

32.1%

30.3%

30.3%

30.3%

30.3%

Location

28.4%

28.4%

28.0%

28.0%

28.0%

28.0%

Fraud

22.8%

22.2%

28.0%

26.0%

28.0%

27.0%

Group

22.3%

22.7%

22.1%

22.6%

22.3%

22.8%

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Includes minor contributions from unallocated revenues.


Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'000s

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

Year end 31 March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

87,468

119,702

143,504

199,101

198,750

212,503

235,421

Cost of Sales

(20,302)

(27,092)

(36,060)

(54,914)

(55,650)

(59,501)

(65,918)

Gross Profit

67,166

92,610

107,444

144,187

143,100

153,002

169,503

EBITDA

 

 

18,734

28,741

34,080

51,739

49,005

52,100

58,020

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

17,006

26,311

32,031

47,945

45,037

47,946

53,671

Acquired intangible amortisation

(4,022)

(7,885)

(10,316)

(19,008)

(18,900)

(18,900)

(17,900)

Exceptionals

(1,410)

(2,143)

(4,003)

(1,552)

(93)

0

0

Share of associate

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Share based payments

(994)

(2,375)

(2,287)

(4,541)

(4,995)

(5,495)

(6,044)

Operating Profit

10,580

13,908

15,425

22,844

21,049

23,551

29,727

Net Interest

(498)

(508)

(689)

(2,218)

(1,655)

(1,105)

(855)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

16,508

25,803

31,342

45,727

43,382

46,841

52,816

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

10,082

13,400

14,736

20,626

19,394

22,446

28,872

Tax

668

(2,746)

(2,583)

(3,562)

(4,655)

(5,387)

(6,929)

Profit After Tax (norm)

13,206

20,642

24,760

35,210

32,970

35,599

40,140

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

10,750

10,654

12,153

17,064

14,739

17,059

21,942

Ave. Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

131.6

150.6

158.1

193.6

195.4

197.1

198.4

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

10.0

13.7

15.7

18.2

16.9

18.1

20.2

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)

 

9.9

13.5

15.4

17.9

16.7

17.9

20.0

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

8.2

7.1

7.7

8.8

7.5

8.7

11.1

Dividend per share (p)

2.4

2.7

3.0

0.0

6.0

3.3

3.6

Gross Margin (%)

76.8

77.4

74.9

72.4

72.0

72.0

72.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

21.4

24.0

23.7

26.0

24.7

24.5

24.6

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

19.4

22.0

22.3

24.1

22.7

22.6

22.8

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

105,653

170,284

438,683

430,219

411,001

392,947

375,798

Intangible Assets

98,753

161,372

425,646

414,505

390,981

371,931

353,881

Tangible Assets

2,856

4,700

4,815

9,420

10,502

11,497

12,398

Other fixed assets

4,044

4,212

8,222

6,294

9,519

9,519

9,519

Current Assets

 

 

48,914

61,121

76,522

95,984

81,460

112,198

150,148

Debtors

30,569

37,969

54,992

66,554

71,550

76,501

84,752

Cash

17,618

22,753

21,189

27,499

4,411

30,198

59,897

Other

727

399

341

1,931

5,499

5,499

5,499

Current Liabilities

 

 

(44,444)

(56,942)

(77,030)

(86,459)

(86,292)

(91,994)

(101,089)

Creditors

(36,436)

(56,100)

(70,302)

(80,280)

(82,089)

(87,791)

(96,886)

Contingent consideration

(7,122)

(45)

(5,287)

(6,179)

(4,203)

(4,203)

(4,203)

Short term borrowings

(886)

(797)

(1,441)

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(15,940)

(16,711)

(116,707)

(94,810)

(46,413)

(36,727)

(26,981)

Long term borrowings

(11,499)

(8,451)

(85,447)

(62,139)

(19,833)

(16,002)

(12,002)

Contingent consideration

0

0

0

0

(458)

(458)

(458)

Other long term liabilities

(4,441)

(8,260)

(31,260)

(32,671)

(26,122)

(20,267)

(14,521)

Net Assets

 

 

94,183

157,752

321,468

344,934

359,756

376,424

397,877

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

16,305

31,620

27,779

48,498

42,844

52,851

58,864

Net Interest

(498)

(545)

(689)

(1,768)

(1,454)

(936)

(855)

Tax

(2,193)

(3,247)

(2,930)

(6,386)

(10,412)

(11,242)

(12,676)

Capex

(2,227)

(2,018)

(1,625)

(1,339)

(2,900)

(3,000)

(3,100)

Acquisitions/disposals

(36,840)

(70,363)

(255,101)

(81)

(2,089)

0

0

Financing

24,755

56,668

157,339

(1,553)

(1,037)

(2,000)

(2,000)

Dividends

(2,775)

(3,582)

(4,049)

(5,761)

(5,855)

(5,886)

(6,534)

Net Cash Flow

(3,473)

8,533

(79,276)

31,610

19,097

29,787

33,699

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(8,673)

(5,233)

(13,505)

65,699

34,640

15,422

(14,196)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

33

(261)

72

(551)

121

(169)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(5,233)

(13,505)

65,699

34,640

15,422

(14,196)

(47,895)

Source: GB Group, Edison Investment Research


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This report has been commissioned by GB Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by GB Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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BayWa’s business model continues to evolve, as the group engages in added-value project activity and reduces exposure to fluctuations in demand for agricultural inputs/outputs, heating and fuel oil or building materials in Germany. Energy Infrastructure Partners (EIP) recently announced €530m equity investment in the group’s renewables business unit, BayWa r. e., enables management to accelerate this transition.

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