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Research: Metals & Mining
Ahead of Wheaton’s Q120 results, which are scheduled to be released on Wednesday 6 May, after the bell, we have refined our forecasts. They now take account of four factors: 1) the anticipated outlook for gold production from Salobo during the period 2020-25, as disclosed in Wheaton’s release of a technical report on 30 March, 2) the timing of mine closures as a result of anti-coronavirus measures, in particular, in Peru and Mexico, 3) updated precious metals forecasts and 4) the possible effects of the recent rise in Wheaton’s share price on general and administrative expenses.
Wheaton Precious Metals |
Refining numbers |
Q1 considerations |
Metals & mining |
30 April 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Wheaton Precious Metals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
Ahead of Wheaton’s Q120 results, which are scheduled to be released on Wednesday 6 May, after the bell, we have refined our forecasts. They now take account of four factors: 1) the anticipated outlook for gold production from Salobo during the period 2020–25, as disclosed in Wheaton’s release of a technical report on 30 March, 2) the timing of mine closures as a result of anti-coronavirus measures, in particular, in Peru and Mexico, 3) updated precious metals forecasts and 4) the possible effects of the recent rise in Wheaton’s share price on general and administrative expenses.
Year end |
Revenue (US$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/18 |
794.0 |
203.1 |
48 |
36 |
83.1 |
0.9 |
12/19 |
861.3 |
242.7 |
56 |
36 |
71.2 |
0.9 |
12/20e |
1,009.0 |
375.6 |
84 |
43 |
47.4 |
1.1 |
12/21e |
1,175.7 |
503.6 |
112 |
53 |
35.5 |
1.3 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.
Constancia closure timing
In our last note, we stated that, ‘We expect the mine closures in late March to have little effect on our Q1 forecasts as any closures will provide mines with the opportunity to sell metal out of inventory and should therefore lead to a drawdown in ounces produced but not yet sold.’ While that is, in general, true (especially regarding WPM’s partners’ Mexican mining operations), in the case of HudBay’s Constancia, in Peru, the mine was ramped down and closed over three days from 20 March, after Peru closed its borders on 16 March. In order to properly reflect the increased period during which Constancia is likely to have been non-producing, we have therefore reduced our gold and silver production forecasts attributable to WPM from Constancia by 11.1% each in Q120.
Salobo accelerates gold production
At the same time, on 30 March, WPM released a technical document outlining its expectations for production from Salobo in the five years from FY20 to FY25, during which time the 50% Salobo III capacity increase is to be implemented. While the total amount of gold expected to be mined from Salobo in the period FY20–25, inclusive, is little (-1.8%) changed compared with our prior forecasts, in general there is an acceleration of production forward into earlier years as a result of the expansion.
FY20 EPS forecast up 8c/share
The combination of higher prevailing precious metals prices and an assumption about potential total general and administrative costs (ie including stock-based compensation expenses in the light of Wheaton’s rising share price so far in FY20) has resulted in us reducing our Q120 basic EPS forecast by 1c to 22c/share. However, we have increased our forecasts for Q2–Q420 by 2–3c each to result in an 8c increase in our EPS forecast for the full-year, from 76c/share to 84c/share (cf a consensus of 86c/share).
Updated FY20 forecasts by quarter
In this note, we have refined our forecasts for Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) for FY20 for four factors:
■
The anticipated outlook for gold production from Salobo during the period 2020–25, as disclosed in Wheaton’s technical report on Sedar released on 30 March.
■
The timing of mine closures as a result of anti-COVID-19 measures, in particular in Peru and Mexico.
■
Updated precious metals forecasts.
■
The possible effects of the recent rise in Wheaton’s share price on general and administrative expenses.
Each of these is considered in turn, below.
Long-term Salobo production guidance
On 30 March, WPM released a technical document on Sedar outlining its expectations for production from Salobo in the five years from FY20 to FY25. It is the first technical document to be released since the development of Salobo III was sanctioned in October 2018.
The expansion of Salobo III involves a 50% increase in processing capacity, from 24Mtpa to 36Mtpa, from H122. As a result, our new expectations for gold production from Salobo are shown in Exhibit 1 (with WPM’s 75% share also shown), relative to our prior expectations.
Exhibit 1: Long-term Salobo gold production guidance (koz)
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
Total |
|
Updated Salobo production guidance (koz) |
352 |
316 |
325 |
367 |
292 |
1,652 |
WPM 75% share (koz) |
264 |
237 |
244 |
275 |
219 |
1,239 |
Previous Edison estimate of WPM share (koz) |
246 |
223 |
211 |
264 |
317 |
1,261 |
Change (%) |
+7.2 |
+6.3 |
+15.4 |
+4.2 |
-30.9 |
-1.8 |
Source: Wheaton Precious Metals, Edison Investment Research
Whereas Edison had previously simply increased its forecast gold output in FY23 and FY24 pro rata with the increase in milling capacity, the new production numbers have now refined these estimates with the added benefit of greater accuracy (and therefore less associated risk). From Exhibit 1, it can be seen that, while the total output of gold over the five-year period is little changed compared with our prior estimate (-1.8%), in general production is now anticipated to be higher in earlier years and lower in later ones.
Mexican and Peruvian mine closure timings
In our last note on WPM (Swings and roundabouts, published on 3 April), we said, ‘We expect the mine closures in late March to have little effect on our Q1 forecasts as any closures will provide mines with the opportunity to sell metal out of inventory and should therefore lead to a drawdown in ounces produced but not yet sold.’ While that is, in general, true (for example, the order closing Mexico’s mines was finalised on 31 March and was effective on 30 March), Constancia was ramped down and closed over three days by its operator (Hudbay Minerals) from 20 March, after Peru closed its borders on 16 March and implemented a night-time curfew from 18 March. Note that the state of emergency in Peru has since been extended to 10 May, although, self-evidently, it is possible that it could be extended once again as it already has been on at least two occasions previously. Nevertheless, to reflect the increased period during which Constancia is likely to have been non-producing (and also unlikely to deliver metal), we have reduced our gold and silver production forecasts attributable to WPM from Constancia by 11.1% each in Q120.
Updated precious metals prices
In common with its traditional practice, Edison has also updated its forecasts for precious metals for the remainder of the year to those prevailing at the time of writing, as shown below:
Exhibit 2: Updated FY20 precious metals prices (US$/oz)
Q120 |
Q220 |
Q320 |
Q420 |
|
Previous |
||||
Silver |
16.89 |
14.17 |
14.17 |
14.17 |
Gold |
1,581 |
1,591 |
1,591 |
1,591 |
Palladium |
2,296 |
2,296 |
2,296 |
2,296 |
Current |
||||
Silver |
16.89 |
15.05 |
15.02 |
15.02 |
Gold |
1,581 |
1,696 |
1,704 |
1,704 |
Palladium |
2,296 |
1,988 |
1,923 |
1,923 |
Change (%) |
||||
Silver |
u/c |
+6.2 |
+6.0 |
+6.0 |
Gold |
u/c |
+6.6 |
+7.1 |
+7.1 |
Palladium |
u/c |
-13.4 |
-16.2 |
-16.2 |
Source: Edison Investment Research.
Note that, while the effect of these changes is, generally, to increase prices over the course of the remainder of the year, they remain unchanged for Q1 specifically.
Stock-based G&A expenses
While it has historically been Edison’s policy to forecast WPM’s results exclusive of stock-based general and administrative expenses, it is very clear from history that a rising share price has an effect on total G&A expenses in the form of both equity settled stock-based compensation expenses and performance share unit (PSU) accruals related to the anticipated fair value of the PSUs issued. As a result, in FY19 (during a period of a steadily rising WPM share price in both Canadian dollar and US dollar terms) total G&A expenses amounted to US$54.7m, compared with US$31.6m (excluding stock-based compensation expenses and PSUs) and guidance of US$36–38m for non-stock G&A expenses. Exhibit 3 demonstrates the potential magnitude of this effect, by quarter:
Exhibit 3: Historical WPM share price changes vs total quarterly G&A expenses
Q418 |
Q119 |
Q219 |
Q319 |
Q419 |
Q120 |
Current |
|
WPM share price at period end (C$) |
26.65 |
31.81 |
31.67 |
34.74 |
38.64 |
38.73 |
55.73 |
Change (%) |
+19.4 |
-0.4 |
+9.7 |
+11.2 |
+0.2 |
+43.9 |
|
WPM share price at period end (US$) |
19.56 |
23.80 |
24.19 |
26.24 |
29.77 |
27.30 |
39.64 |
Change (%) |
+21.7 |
+1.6 |
+8.5 |
+13.5 |
-8.3 |
+45.2 |
|
Total quarterly G&A expense (US$000s) |
21,142 |
16,535 |
12,249 |
14,028 |
11,695 |
||
Pro rata mid-range non-stock G&A guidance (US$000s) |
8,750 |
9,250 |
9,250 |
9,250 |
9,250 |
9,750 |
|
Premium of actual vs mid-range guidance (%) |
+141.6 |
+78.8 |
+32.4 |
+51.7 |
+26.4 |
Source: Edison Investment Research, Wheaton Precious Metals
WPM’s non-stock G&A guidance for FY20 is US$38–40m. However, in the light of WPM’s ostensibly flat share price in Q120 in Canadian dollar terms (potentially analogous to Q219) and its strongly higher share price to date in Q220, we believe that it is likely that stock-based compensation expenses will add to the total in at least these quarters.
While a precise estimate is hard to make without knowing the exact details of the PSUs and other stock-based compensation schemes, in order to allow for this effect, for the moment, Edison has assumed that total G&A in Q1–Q420 will equal the quarterly average in FY19 – ie US$13.627m per quarter – compared to non-stock G&A guidance of US$38–40m for the 12-month period (or an average of US$9.75m per quarter).
Updated FY20 forecasts
In the light of the four factors considered above, our updated forecasts for WPM for FY20 are as shown in Exhibit 4, below. As before, our forecasts assume that Yauliyacu, Constancia, Penasquito, San Dimas and Los Filos all remain closed for the entirety of Q220. Clearly, there exists risk associated with both the potential lifting of existing lockdowns in this respect (upside) or the imposition of new lockdown restrictions (downside). Apart from precious metals prices, the principal remaining risk to our forecasts relates to the extent to which sales differ from production and therefore, by extension, the extent to which inventory (in the form of ounces produced but not yet delivered to Wheaton) either increases or decreases during the course of the year.
Exhibit 4: Wheaton Precious Metals FY20 forecast, by quarter*
US$000s |
FY19 |
Q120e |
Q220e |
Q320e |
Q420e |
FY20e (current) |
FY20e (previous) |
Silver production (koz) |
22,562 |
5,851 |
2,578 |
5,926 |
5,926 |
20,282 |
20,357 |
Gold production (oz) |
406,675 |
96,410 |
86,688 |
101,563 |
101,563 |
386,223 |
373,544 |
Palladium production (koz) |
21,993 |
5,938 |
5,938 |
5,938 |
5,938 |
23,750 |
23,750 |
Silver sales (koz) |
17,703 |
5,851 |
2,578 |
5,926 |
5,926 |
20,282 |
20,357 |
Gold sales (oz) |
389,086 |
96,373 |
86,651 |
101,526 |
101,526 |
386,078 |
373,399 |
Palladium sales (oz) |
20,681 |
5,914 |
5,914 |
5,914 |
5,914 |
23,655 |
23,655 |
Avg realised Ag price (US$/oz) |
16.29 |
16.89 |
15.05 |
15.02 |
15.02 |
15.56 |
14.96 |
Avg realised Au price (US$/oz) |
1,391 |
1,581 |
1,696 |
1,704 |
1,704 |
1,671 |
1,588 |
Avg realised Pd price (US$/oz) |
1,542 |
2,296 |
1,988 |
1,923 |
1,923 |
2,032 |
2,296 |
Avg Ag cash cost (US$/oz) |
5.02 |
5.15 |
5.14 |
5.10 |
5.10 |
5.12 |
5.09 |
Avg Au cash cost (US$/oz) |
421 |
425 |
403 |
425 |
425 |
420 |
420 |
Avg Pd cash cost (US$/oz) |
273 |
413 |
358 |
346 |
346 |
366 |
413 |
Sales |
861,332 |
264,771 |
197,480 |
273,386 |
273,386 |
1,009,023 |
951,998 |
Cost of sales |
|||||||
Cost of sales, excluding depletion |
258,559 |
73,550 |
50,327 |
75,452 |
75,452 |
274,782 |
270,365 |
Depletion |
256,826 |
70,808 |
55,376 |
73,330 |
73,330 |
272,844 |
268,537 |
Total cost of sales |
515,385 |
144,358 |
105,703 |
148,783 |
148,783 |
547,626 |
538,902 |
Earnings from operations |
345,947 |
120,412 |
91,777 |
124,604 |
124,604 |
461,397 |
413,097 |
Expenses and other income |
|||||||
– General and administrative** |
54,507 |
13,627 |
13,627 |
13,627 |
13,627 |
54,507 |
39,000 |
– Foreign exchange (gain)/loss |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||||
– Net interest paid/(received) |
48,730 |
7,830 |
7,830 |
7,830 |
7,830 |
31,320 |
31,320 |
– Other (income)/expense |
(217) |
0 |
0 |
||||
Total expenses and other income |
103,020 |
21,457 |
21,457 |
21,457 |
21,457 |
85,827 |
70,320 |
Earnings before income taxes |
242,927 |
98,955 |
70,321 |
103,147 |
103,147 |
375,570 |
342,777 |
Income tax expense/(recovery) |
(9,066) |
250 |
250 |
250 |
250 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
Marginal tax rate (%) |
(3.7) |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
Net earnings |
251,993 |
98,705 |
70,071 |
102,897 |
102,897 |
374,570 |
341,777 |
Ave. no. shares in issue (000s) |
446,021 |
447,500 |
447,800 |
447,800 |
447,800 |
447,725 |
446,802 |
Basic EPS (US$) |
0.56 |
0.22 |
0.16 |
0.23 |
0.23 |
0.84 |
0.76 |
Diluted EPS (US$) |
0.56 |
0.22 |
0.16 |
0.23 |
0.23 |
0.84 |
0.76 |
DPS (US$) |
0.36 |
0.10 |
0.11 |
0.10 |
0.12 |
0.43 |
0.43 |
Source: Wheaton Precious Metals, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Excluding impairments and exceptional items. **Forecasts exclude stock-based compensation costs. Totals may not add up owing to rounding.
If desired, comparisons between current and past forecasts for individual quarters may be made by comparing the figures in Exhibit 4 with those of Exhibit 1 in our last note, Swings and roundabouts, published on 3 April 2020.
Our updated production forecasts of 20.3Moz silver and 386.2koz gold compare to WPM’s prior production guidance (now withdrawn) of 22.0–23.5Moz silver and 390–410koz gold and our prior forecasts of 20.4Moz silver and 373.5koz gold. Our production forecast for palladium remains unchanged. At annual average prices for the year, our updated production forecasts now equate to 605.1koz of gold equivalent production (cf 599.7koz previously). At WPM’s nominal prices of US$18.00/oz silver, US$1,500/oz gold and US$2,000/oz palladium, they equate to 661.3koz (cf 649.5koz previously and a prior guidance range of 685–725koz).
Our updated basic EPS forecast of US$0.84/share for FY20 is 2.3% below the consensus forecast of US$0.86/share (source: Refinitiv, 28 April 2020) within a range of US$0.76–0.98 per share. On a quarterly basis, our forecasts compare to consensus as follows:
Exhibit 5: WPM FY20 and FY21 consensus EPS forecasts cf Edison (US$/share)
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Sum Q1–Q4 |
FY20 |
FY21 |
|
Current Edison |
0.22 |
0.16 |
0.23 |
0.23 |
0.84 |
0.84 |
1.12 |
Previous Edison |
0.23 |
0.14 |
0.20 |
0.20 |
0.76 |
0.76 |
1.14 |
Mean consensus |
0.22 |
0.19 |
0.21 |
0.22 |
0.84 |
0.86 |
0.99 |
High |
0.24 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.25 |
0.99 |
0.98 |
1.28 |
Low |
0.20 |
0.14 |
0.17 |
0.17 |
0.68 |
0.76 |
0.77 |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: At 28 April 2020.
Our US$1.12 basic EPS forecast for FY21 (vs US$1.14/share previously, see also Exhibit 6) remains, to all intents and purposes, essentially unchanged and compares with a consensus of US$0.99 (source: Refinitiv, 28 April 2020), within a range of US$0.77–1.28. This estimate is predicated on unchanged average gold and silver prices during the year of US$1,509/oz and US$24.76/oz, respectively, which, in the latter case, is 64.8% above the current spot price. One of the central assumptions behind our silver price forecast is that it will, at some point, revert to the long-term correlation that it has exhibited with gold since 1971. If both metals remain at current levels, however (US$15.02/oz Ag and US$1,704/oz Au at the time of writing), we forecast that WPM will instead earn US$0.88 per share in FY21.
Exhibit 6: Financial summary
US$'000s |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
||
Dec |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
849,560 |
706,472 |
620,176 |
648,687 |
891,557 |
843,215 |
794,012 |
861,332 |
1,009,023 |
1,175,686 |
Cost of Sales |
(117,489) |
(139,352) |
(151,097) |
(190,214) |
(254,434) |
(243,801) |
(245,794) |
(258,559) |
(274,782) |
(293,905) |
||
Gross Profit |
732,071 |
567,120 |
469,079 |
458,473 |
637,123 |
599,414 |
548,218 |
602,773 |
734,241 |
881,782 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
701,232 |
531,812 |
431,219 |
426,236 |
602,684 |
564,741 |
496,568 |
548,266 |
679,734 |
827,275 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
600,003 |
387,659 |
271,039 |
227,655 |
293,982 |
302,361 |
244,281 |
291,440 |
406,890 |
514,129 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
(68,151) |
(384,922) |
(71,000) |
(228,680) |
245,715 |
(165,855) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
788 |
(11,202) |
(1,830) |
(4,076) |
(4,982) |
8,129 |
(5,826) |
217 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
600,791 |
376,457 |
201,058 |
(161,343) |
218,000 |
81,810 |
484,170 |
125,802 |
406,890 |
514,129 |
||
Net Interest |
0 |
(6,083) |
(2,277) |
(4,090) |
(24,193) |
(24,993) |
(41,187) |
(48,730) |
(31,320) |
(10,555) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
600,003 |
381,576 |
268,762 |
223,565 |
269,789 |
277,368 |
203,094 |
242,710 |
375,570 |
503,573 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
600,791 |
370,374 |
198,781 |
(165,433) |
193,807 |
56,817 |
442,983 |
77,072 |
375,570 |
503,573 |
Tax |
(14,755) |
5,121 |
1,045 |
3,391 |
1,330 |
886 |
(15,868) |
9,066 |
(1,000) |
(1,000) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
586,036 |
375,495 |
267,977 |
222,880 |
266,137 |
286,383 |
181,400 |
251,993 |
374,570 |
502,574 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
586,036 |
375,495 |
199,826 |
(162,042) |
195,137 |
57,703 |
427,115 |
86,138 |
374,570 |
502,573 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
353.9 |
355.6 |
359.4 |
395.8 |
430.5 |
442.0 |
443.4 |
446.0 |
447.7 |
447.8 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
166 |
106 |
75 |
53 |
62 |
63 |
48 |
56.5 |
83.7 |
112.2 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c) |
|
|
165 |
105 |
74 |
53 |
62 |
63 |
48 |
56 |
83 |
112 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
166 |
106 |
56 |
(-41) |
45 |
13 |
96 |
19 |
84 |
112 |
Dividend per share (c) |
35 |
45 |
26 |
20 |
21 |
33 |
36 |
36 |
43 |
53 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
86.2 |
80.3 |
75.6 |
70.7 |
71.5 |
71.1 |
69.0 |
70.0 |
72.8 |
75.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
82.5 |
75.3 |
69.5 |
65.7 |
67.6 |
67.0 |
62.5 |
63.7 |
67.4 |
70.4 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
70.6 |
54.9 |
43.7 |
35.1 |
33.0 |
35.9 |
30.8 |
33.8 |
40.3 |
43.7 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
2,403,958 |
4,288,557 |
4,309,270 |
5,526,335 |
6,025,227 |
5,579,898 |
6,390,342 |
6,123,255 |
5,852,411 |
5,541,265 |
Intangible Assets |
2,281,234 |
4,242,086 |
4,270,971 |
5,494,244 |
5,948,443 |
5,454,106 |
6,196,187 |
5,768,883 |
5,498,039 |
5,186,893 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,347 |
5,670 |
5,427 |
12,315 |
12,163 |
30,060 |
29,402 |
44,615 |
44,615 |
44,615 |
||
Investments |
121,377 |
40,801 |
32,872 |
19,776 |
64,621 |
95,732 |
164,753 |
309,757 |
309,757 |
309,757 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
785,379 |
101,287 |
338,493 |
105,876 |
128,092 |
103,415 |
79,704 |
154,752 |
622,222 |
1,200,868 |
Stocks |
966 |
845 |
26,263 |
1,455 |
1,481 |
1,700 |
1,541 |
43,628 |
1,812 |
2,111 |
||
Debtors |
6,197 |
4,619 |
4,132 |
1,124 |
2,316 |
3,194 |
2,396 |
7,138 |
2,764 |
3,221 |
||
Cash |
778,216 |
95,823 |
308,098 |
103,297 |
124,295 |
98,521 |
75,767 |
103,986 |
617,646 |
1,195,536 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(49,458) |
(21,134) |
(16,171) |
(12,568) |
(19,057) |
(12,143) |
(28,841) |
(64,700) |
(80,008) |
(81,894) |
Creditors |
(20,898) |
(21,134) |
(16,171) |
(12,568) |
(19,057) |
(12,143) |
(28,841) |
(63,976) |
(79,284) |
(81,170) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(28,560) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(724) |
(724) |
(724) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(32,805) |
(1,002,164) |
(1,002,856) |
(1,468,908) |
(1,194,274) |
(771,506) |
(1,269,289) |
(887,387) |
(887,387) |
(887,387) |
Long term borrowings |
(21,500) |
(998,136) |
(998,518) |
(1,466,000) |
(1,193,000) |
(770,000) |
(1,264,000) |
(878,028) |
(878,028) |
(878,028) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(11,305) |
(4,028) |
(4,338) |
(2,908) |
(1,274) |
(1,506) |
(5,289) |
(9,359) |
(9,359) |
(9,359) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
3,107,074 |
3,366,546 |
3,628,736 |
4,150,735 |
4,939,988 |
4,899,664 |
5,171,916 |
5,325,920 |
5,507,238 |
5,772,852 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
720,209 |
540,597 |
434,582 |
435,783 |
608,503 |
564,187 |
518,680 |
548,301 |
741,232 |
828,405 |
Net Interest |
0 |
(6,083) |
(2,277) |
(4,090) |
(24,193) |
(24,993) |
(41,187) |
(41,242) |
(31,320) |
(10,555) |
||
Tax |
(725) |
(154) |
(204) |
(208) |
28 |
(326) |
0 |
(5,380) |
(1,000) |
(1,000) |
||
Capex |
(641,976) |
(2,050,681) |
(146,249) |
(1,791,275) |
(805,472) |
(19,633) |
(861,406) |
10,571 |
(2,000) |
(2,000) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
12,919 |
58,004 |
6,819 |
761,824 |
595,140 |
1,236 |
1,279 |
37,198 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(123,852) |
(160,013) |
(79,775) |
(68,593) |
(78,708) |
(121,934) |
(132,915) |
(129,986) |
(193,252) |
(236,960) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(33,425) |
(1,618,330) |
212,896 |
(666,559) |
295,298 |
398,537 |
(515,549) |
419,462 |
513,660 |
577,890 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(761,581) |
(728,156) |
902,313 |
690,420 |
1,362,703 |
1,068,705 |
671,479 |
1,188,233 |
774,766 |
261,106 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
(12,139) |
(1,003) |
(5,724) |
(1,300) |
(1,311) |
(1,205) |
(5,995) |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(728,156) |
902,313 |
690,420 |
1,362,703 |
1,068,705 |
671,479 |
1,188,233 |
774,766 |
261,106 |
(316,784) |
Source: Company sources, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Consumer
OPAP is Europe’s only listed gaming operator with 100% pre-paid exclusive retail licences, providing substantial barriers to entry. Margin expansion and high cash flow have been achieved through product enhancements and successful cost controls, while maintaining strong CSR credentials. COVID-19 presents a significant near-term disruption and our forecasts include a total loss of €400m of gross gaming revenues in FY20. Despite the weaker outlook for retail spending, the company has a robust balance sheet and net debt/EBITDA should fall below 1.0x in FY21. We expect OPAP to continue its dividend policy of paying out the bulk of free cash flow and we estimate an FY21 dividend yield of 9.9%.
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