Vection Technologies — Rapid H2 growth de-risks ambitious FY23 target

Vection Technologies (ASX: VR1)

Last close As at 24/04/2024

AUD0.03

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

AUD31m

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Research: TMT

Vection Technologies — Rapid H2 growth de-risks ambitious FY23 target

Vection Technologies reported a 60% uplift in its total contract value (TCV) to A$16m from the TCV metric announced at the half year, driven by new contract wins, upsells from existing clients and recognising delayed contracts from Q223. Delivering rapid contract growth in H223 instils further confidence in management’s FY23 revenue guidance of A$24–26m for its IntegratedXR technology stack, reflected in the 9% rise in share price following the announcement. As illustrated by our previous note, promising pilot projects, including a potential A$30m tender in the defence sector, should bolster the company’s growth trajectory. A proven track record of converting c 100% of TCV into revenue by year-end further de-risks the group’s FY23 growth target and our forecasts, which are unchanged.

Max Hayes

Written by

Max Hayes

Associate Analyst

TMT

Vection Technologies

Rapid H2 growth de-risks ambitious FY23 target

TCV update

Software and comp services

17 April 2023

Price

A$0.05

Market cap

A$55m

Net cash (A$m) at 31 December 2022

(including finance leases and term deposits)

9.3

Shares in issue

1,127m

Free float

49%

Code

VR1

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

OTC (VCTNY)

Share price performance

Business description

Vection Technologies, an Australia-based software company, operates in the field of extended reality, which encompasses immersive technologies such as augmented reality, virtual reality and mixed reality. The company’s immersive solutions suite, IntegratedXR, is a combination of technology solutions designed to integrate systems, processes and technologies via digital transformation. Vection Technologies partners with companies to build out the foundational elements that enable them to engage with the metaverse.

Analysts

Max Hayes

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)7930 166512

Vection Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Vection Technologies reported a 60% uplift in its total contract value (TCV) to A$16m from the TCV metric announced at the half year, driven by new contract wins, upsells from existing clients and recognising delayed contracts from Q223. Delivering rapid contract growth in H223 instils further confidence in management’s FY23 revenue guidance of A$24–26m for its IntegratedXR technology stack, reflected in the 9% rise in share price following the announcement. As illustrated by our previous note, promising pilot projects, including a potential A$30m tender in the defence sector, should bolster the company’s growth trajectory. A proven track record of converting c 100% of TCV into revenue by year-end further de-risks the group’s FY23 growth target and our forecasts, which are unchanged.

Year

end

Revenue

(A$m)

Adj EBITDA*

(A$m)

PBT**
(A$m)

EPS**
(c)

EV/sales
(x)

P/sales
(x)

Net cash*** (A$m)

06/21

3.5

(0.4)

(2.5)

(0.27)

13.4

15.9

2.2

06/22e

18.9

0.9

(7.0)

(0.67)

2.5

2.9

10.8

06/23e

26.1

3.7

(6.4)

(0.59)

1.8

2.1

11.5

Note: *Adjusted EBITDA is normalised, excluding non-cash payments, exceptional items and interest revenue. **PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding exceptional items and interest revenue. ***Includes debt, financial leases and term deposits.

Vection Technologies delivered a further A$1m increase in TCV to A$16m since our previous update on 27 March, a 60% uplift from the half-year. The increase was driven by contract wins in the public sector and education, as well as from leading service agencies. TCV also benefitted from increased scope from its existing client Trenitalia, a leading European railway operator, and the recognition of delayed contracts from Q223.

The group’s TCV growth trajectory indicates that it could deliver a TCV of over A$22m by year-end, which could increase further if pilot projects evolve into long-term contracts, as management expects. These encouraging lead indicators support our unchanged forecasts and management’s reiterated FY23 revenue guidance of A$24–26m for its IntegratedXR technology stack.

Its recent partnership announcement with expert.AI, a European natural language understanding company, to digitise technical manuals through extended reality and artificial intelligence technologies highlights the potential long-term value of new technology integrations. Further developments to its IntegratedXR technology stack strengthen the group’s position to capitalise on the growing demand for Extended Reality (XR) technology globally, supporting our positive outlook for the company’s long-term prospects.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Vection Technologies and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Vection Technologies. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Vection Technologies and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Vection Technologies. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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