Rank Group — Update 26 January 2017

Rank Group (LSE: RNK)

Last close As at 18/06/2024

73.00

0.80 (1.11%)

Market capitalisation

GBP342m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

Rank Group — Update 26 January 2017

Rank Group

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Written by

Consumer

Rank Group

Cost pressures, but good digital progress

Interim results

Travel & leisure

26 January 2017

Price

193p

Market cap

£754m

€1.17/$1.26/£

Net debt (£m) at 31 Dec 2016

33.0

Shares in issue

390.7m

Free float

29%

Code

RNK

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(0.1)

3.3

(30.8)

Rel (local)

(1.4)

1.1

(42.5)

52-week high/low

281p

189p

Business description

Rank is a gaming-based leisure and entertainment company. Its Grosvenor and Mecca brands are market leaders in UK multi-channel gaming and it also has operations in Spain and Belgium.

Next events

IMS

May 2017

Final results

August 2017

Analysts

Jane Anscombe

+44 (0)20 3077 5740

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Rank Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Interims reflected high street cost pressures (EBITDA -5%) and we have trimmed FY17e EPS by 2%. However, Digital’s 11% revenue growth was very encouraging, with an acceleration in Q2 as platform problems were ironed out. The core argument for Rank remains intact: scope to materially grow in Digital via better cross-sell of its land-based brands. Despite a lacklustre short-term profits outlook, the group remains highly cash generative, which underpins a progressive dividend policy and FY17e yield of 3.7%. The FY17e EV/EBITDA is only 6.2x, 37% below the peer average.

Year
end

Revenue* (£m)

EBITDA**
(£m)

PBT**
(£m)

EPS**
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/15

738.3

126.3

74.1

14.6

5.6

13.2

2.9

06/16

753.0

128.2

77.4

15.4

6.5

12.5

3.4

06/17e

764.0

127.0

76.0

15.3

7.1

12.6

3.7

06/18e

780.7

133.0

81.5

16.4

8.2

11.8

4.2

Note: *Revenue is before customer incentives. **Normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, one-off and exceptional items.

Challenging retail trading conditions

Rank’s H117 revenue grew by 1% to £379m (2% l-f-l), but increased inflationary and employment costs left normalised PBT 8% lower at £34.5m. Grosvenor Casinos was affected more than Mecca, partly due to a strong comparative. Management has cut costs across the group and H217 should benefit to the tune of £8m (2.5% of the cost base). Our revised FY17e normalised PBT of £76.0m (previously £78.5m) implies H217 growth of 3.8% and moves us to the lower end of the current consensus. Rank remains strongly cash generative: net debt fell to £33.0m at end December (June 2016: £41.2m) and we expect a further decline to £23.0m by year-end, despite capex being weighted to H217.

Encouraging progress in digital

Digital revenue growth of 11% compared with 7% in Q117 (to 9 October). Grosvenor digital revenues jumped by 39%, helped by a much better product range. Mecca digital returned to growth in Q217 (3% versus -4% in Q117) with the new Bede platform now handling its high-volume traffic robustly. Operational integration of the two brands is already improving effectiveness. Digital is still only 14% of the group and we now expect this side of the business to move ahead rapidly, increasingly offsetting economic pressures on the venues’ results.

Valuation: FY17e EV/EBITDA only 6.2x

Rank shares fell by 32% in 2016 due to disappointment over Mecca digital delays and the more uncertain consumer outlook. High street pressures will continue to weigh on results until Digital scales up. However, a 2017e EV/EBITDA of 6.2x and P/E of 12.6x are well below the peer group averages of 9.8x and 15.3x respectively despite Rank’s fully regulated status, leading brands and opportunity in Digital. We believe that organic growth may be augmented by acquisitions in due course, in a consolidating market.

Interim results and full year forecasts

H117 revenue increased by 1.2% to £378.6m, but normalised operating profit fell by 9.4% to £36.6m. All the divisions were lower bar the small Spanish operation, Enracha, which had an excellent half. Normalised PBT of £34.5m was 7.7% down despite a reduction in interest charges, and was below the £37.0m we forecast in our 14 October AGM update note due to a weaker than expected result in Grosvenor Casinos. However, management action on costs means that the CEO expects the full year performance to be “in line with market forecasts”. We summarise the main trends below and plan to release a longer Outlook report shortly.

Exhibit 1: Half-yearly results and estimates

Year to June £m

H116

H216

FY16

H117

H217e

FY17 new

FY17 old

FY18 new

Grosvenor venues

205.1

203.0

408.1

202.0

203.0

405.0

415.5

407.0

Mecca venues

109.8

111.7

221.5

108.0

109.0

217.0

219.0

215.0

UK digital

47.1

49.6

96.7

52.4

56.6

109.0

112.5

122.7

Enracha

12.2

14.5

26.7

16.2

16.8

33.0

30.0

36.0

Revenue*

374.2

378.8

753.0

378.6

385.4

764.0

777.0

780.7

EBITDA

62.7

65.5

128.2

59.7

67.3

127.0

130.0

133.0

EBITDA margin %

16.8%

17.3%

17.0%

15.8%

17.5%

16.6%

16.7%

17.0%

Depreciation/amortisation

(22.3)

(23.5)

(45.8)

(23.1)

(23.9)

(47.0)

(47.0)

(48.0)

Grosvenor venues

30.9

30.0

60.9

26.1

28.9

55.0

63.5

56.5

Mecca venues

14.3

18.6

32.9

13.3

17.2

30.5

29.0

30.0

UK digital

8.0

5.9

13.9

7.3

7.2

14.5

14.5

17.0

Enracha

1.4

2.2

3.6

2.9

2.6

5.5

4.1

6.0

Central costs

(14.2)

(14.7)

(28.9)

(13.0)

(12.5)

(25.5)

(28.1)

(24.5)

Operating profit (norm)

40.4

42.0

82.4

36.6

43.4

80.0

83.0

85.0

Group margin

10.8%

11.1%

10.9%

9.7%

11.3%

10.5%

10.7%

10.9%

Net interest

(3.0)

(2.0)

(5.0)

(2.1)

(1.9)

(4.0)

(4.5)

(3.5)

Profit before tax (norm)

37.4

40.0

77.4

34.5

41.5

76.0

78.5

81.5

Source: Rank Group, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Revenue is before customer incentives.

Grosvenor venues

Revenue was flat on a l-f-l basis (reported down 2%), affected by a slightly below average win margin and a 6% reduction in customer visits, not helped by tighter customer due diligence checks. We believe this is slightly better than the industry average and indeed Rank reports that in October 2016 Grosvenor achieved its highest share of admissions in four years. Both London and the provinces were affected and operating profit fell by 16% (EBITDA down 10%). The Q2 l-f-l (+1%) was better than Q1 (down 1%), albeit that there was a slightly easier comparative, and we expect cost savings to contribute to a slightly improved result in Q2. We do not expect Grosvenor to be affected by the government’s current triennial review into stakes and prizes, but there is more upside than downside since any restrictions on FOBT betting terminals in betting shops might help the casinos, as would an increase in the number of machines permitted in casinos (which Rank is pushing for and which could be a major positive).

Mecca venues

L-f-l revenue was flat (reported fell by 2% due to the closure of two clubs), which we view as a solid outturn, with higher average spends (especially on the Mecca max machines) offsetting lower visits. A 9% increase in main stage bingo was encouraging. However, operating profit fell by 7% (EBITDA down 8%) due to lower revenue and the impact of higher employment costs.

UK digital

grosvenorcasino’s revenue increased by 39% to £19.3m, implying a strong Q2 (Q1 revenue rose 30%). Rank materially improved the product offering in the period with the launch of its sportsbook (Kambi-powered) and improved poker product, as well new games. Only 3% of Grosvenor venues’ customers play at grosvenorcasino.com and this is a key cross-sell opportunity; encouragingly, 15% of venues’ customers are now using the new sportsbook. meccabingo revenues were flat at £33.1m, but this implies 3% growth in Q2 after -4% in Q1. Mecca had been much more affected by the migration to the Bede platform than Grosvenor due to its much higher volumes, with the business about six months behind target, so we view the Q2 trend as very positive, with the next six months an important proving period. UK Digital operating profits declined by 9% in H117 (EBITDA was flat), but the divisional restructuring (merging the two brands under a single team) and new Sheffield customer solutions hub means that we now expect margins to improve rapidly as the business scales up (even allowing for the extension of the UK RGD gaming duty to ‘free play’ from August 2017).

Changes to forecasts

Exhibit 1 shows our old and new FY17 forecasts by division, showing that the reduction in our forecast operating profit (from £83.0m to £80.0m) arises entirely in Grosvenor venues, where we will be keeping a close eye on trends in the coming months. Exhibit 2 summarises the headline changes. Management has implemented cost savings across the group, which are expected to save £8m in the second half, eg a back-of-the-envelope approach would be to add double the H1 result (to £73m of operating profit) and add £8m to arrive at £81m (Edison estimate £80m). The exceptional restructuring costs of £8.0m (£3.8m booked in H117) are offset by a £10.7m lease provisions release and we forecast a net £2.4m of exceptional charges for the full year. We have trimmed FY18 estimates by slightly more than FY17, given the uncertain consumer outlook, with PBT and EPS down by c 4%.

Exhibit 2: Changes to forecasts

EBITDA (£m)

PBT (£m)

EPS (p)

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

FY17e

130.0

127.0

(2.3)

78.5

76.0

(3.2)

15.6

15.3

(1.9)

FY18e

137.5

133.0

(3.3)

86.0

81.5

(4.5)

17.1

16.4

(4.1)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Very strong cash generation

Rank is highly cash generative. Net debt fell from £41.2m at 30 June 2016 to £33.0m at 31 December (net debt/EBITDA leverage down to 0.3x). First half capex was £17.0m (H116: £26.1m) and management has guided that it now expects to spend £50-55m for the year (previous guidance: £60-70m), partly due to ongoing planning delays in securing sites for the new Luda high street bingo brand and partly due to a general reining back, especially with Grosvenor electronic machines. As a result we now forecast year end net debt of only £23m (previously £36.0m) and continue to expect the group to be cash positive by the end of FY18, in the absence of any material acquisitions.

Dividends

Rank has a progressive dividend policy and the interim payout was increased by 11% to 2.0p. Our full year forecast is unchanged at 7.1p (2.2x cover) and we expect a move towards 2.0x cover in FY18.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£'m

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

707.7

738.3

753.0

764.0

780.7

Cost of Sales

(409.2)

(414.2)

(427.1)

(437.8)

(447.3)

Gross Profit

298.5

324.1

325.9

326.2

333.4

EBITDA

 

 

116.0

126.3

128.2

127.0

133.0

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

72.4

84.0

82.4

80.0

85.0

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

(46.5)

2.1

9.3

(2.4)

0.0

Operating Profit

25.9

86.1

91.7

77.6

85.0

Net Interest

(9.9)

(9.9)

(5.0)

(4.0)

(3.5)

Other finance adjustments*

(1.6)

(1.7)

(1.1)

(0.9)

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

62.5

74.1

77.4

76.0

81.5

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

14.4

74.5

85.6

72.7

81.5

Tax on norm PBT

(13.9)

(17.0)

(17.4)

(16.3)

(17.5)

Profit After Tax (norm)

48.6

57.1

60.0

59.7

64.0

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

0.5

57.5

68.2

56.4

64.0

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

390.7

390.7

390.7

390.7

390.7

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

12.4

14.6

15.4

15.3

16.4

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

5.2

19.1

18.2

14.2

16.4

Dividend per share (p)

4.50

5.60

6.50

7.10

8.20

Gross Margin (%)

42.2

43.9

43.3

42.7

42.7

EBITDA Margin (%)

16.4

17.1

17.0

16.6

17.0

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

10.2

11.4

10.9

10.5

10.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

613.3

607.2

614.1

621.0

626.0

Intangible Assets

390.2

395.7

404.3

405.0

406.0

Tangible Assets

217.5

204.0

202.0

208.0

212.0

Deferred tax/other

5.6

7.5

7.8

8.0

8.0

Current Assets

 

 

87.9

123.4

100.5

107.0

116.2

Stocks

3.1

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.2

Debtors

37.7

31.0

36.6

37.0

38.0

Cash

47.1

89.6

61.0

67.0

75.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(168.4)

(309.4)

(173.9)

(182.0)

(184.5)

Creditors (incl provisions)

(164.0)

(184.5)

(159.5)

(167.0)

(170.0)

Short term borrowings

(4.4)

(124.9)

(14.4)

(15.0)

(14.5)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(290.5)

(126.8)

(188.1)

(165.0)

(135.0)

Long term borrowings

(179.7)

(17.6)

(87.8)

(75.0)

(55.0)

Other long term liabilities

(110.8)

(109.2)

(100.3)

(90.0)

(80.0)

Net Assets

 

 

242.3

294.4

352.6

381.0

422.7

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

55.0

146.6

110.2

115.2

130.0

Net Interest

(8.1)

(7.5)

(5.0)

(3.0)

(3.0)

Tax

(19.1)

(2.2)

(31.1)

(13.7)

(16.3)

Capex

(44.3)

(31.9)

(52.7)

(50.0)

(48.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.3

(1.0)

16.2

0.0

0.0

Financing

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(16.4)

(18.6)

(22.7)

(26.6)

(30.9)

Net Cash Flow

(32.6)

85.4

14.9

22.0

31.9

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

104.1

137.0

52.9

41.2

23.0

HP finance leases initiated

(2.3)

(3.1)

(2.8)

(3.0)

(3.0)

Other

2.0

1.8

(0.4)

(0.8)

(0.3)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

137.0

52.9

41.2

23.0

(5.5)

Source: Rank Group accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt and Sydney. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Rank Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt and Sydney. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Rank Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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