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Research: Metals & Mining
Ahead of Wheaton’s (WPM’s) Q320 results, which are scheduled to be released on 9 November, we have refined our quarterly forecasts for the remainder of the year to take into account both updated precious metals prices and also the apparent delays in hitherto furloughed mines returning to pre-coronavirus levels of production. As a result, we have reduced our silver and gold production forecasts for Q320 by 11.0% and 5.1%, respectively, and our EPS forecast by 2.6c per share (or 7.5%), although this follows a 40% uplift in our forecasts after the Q220 results were announced in August. As a result, our FY20 forecast still remains close to the middle of the range of analysts’ expectations (see Exhibit 2). Our FY21 and longer-term forecasts remain, to all intents and purposes, intact however, as does our valuation.
Wheaton Precious Metals |
Q320 earnings expectation refinements |
Q320e refinements |
Metals & mining |
12 October 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Wheaton Precious Metals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Ahead of Wheaton’s (WPM’s) Q320 results, which are scheduled to be released on 9 November, we have refined our quarterly forecasts for the remainder of the year to take into account both updated precious metals prices and also the apparent delays in hitherto furloughed mines returning to pre-coronavirus levels of production. As a result, we have reduced our silver and gold production forecasts for Q320 by 11.0% and 5.1%, respectively, and our EPS forecast by 2.6c per share (or 7.5%), although this follows a 40% uplift in our forecasts after the Q220 results were announced in August. As a result, our FY20 forecast still remains close to the middle of the range of analysts’ expectations (see Exhibit 2). Our FY21 and longer-term forecasts remain, to all intents and purposes, intact however, as does our valuation.
Year end |
Revenue (US$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/18 |
794.0 |
203.1 |
48 |
36 |
100.3 |
0.7 |
12/19 |
861.3 |
242.7 |
56 |
36 |
86.0 |
0.7 |
12/20e |
1,127.3 |
526.9 |
115 |
43 |
42.0 |
0.9 |
12/21e |
1,487.0 |
799.3 |
178 |
70 |
27.1 |
1.4 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.
Not quite the status quo ante…yet
Six of WPM’s partners’ mines were directly affected by shutdowns and suspensions in Q220 – namely Constancia, Yauliyacu, Penasquito, San Dimas, Los Filos and Antamina. In addition, while not formally directly affected, Wheaton’s flagship asset, Salobo, in Brazil, experienced increased absenteeism which also had a negative effect on output. Whereas we had previously expected all of these mines to return to full production in Q3, after a better than expected Q2 generally, there is evidence that social distancing requirements and increased absenteeism at site have delayed achieving this goal at all operations with the possible exception of Penasquito (which reached pre-coronavirus record throughput rates by mid-June).
Valuation: Still C$69.03/share rising to C$98.27
In the absence of any material changes to FY21 and longer-term forecasts, our valuation of WPM remains unchanged, which is that, ordinarily, we would forecast a value per share of US$52.44, or C$69.03 in FY21. However, given its peers’ valuations as well as the current precious metals investing environment, we believe that WPM is capable of supporting a premium valuation of US$74.65 or C$98.27 per share. In the meantime, from a relative perspective, it is notable that WPM has a lower valuation than the average of its royalty/streaming ‘peers’ on all but one of six valuation measures (see Exhibit 4). On an individual basis, it is cheaper than its peers on at least 62% (15 out of 24) of the same valuation measures used if our estimates are adopted or 50% of them if consensus forecasts are adopted. Among other things, this could be indicative of the market having more conservative precious metal pricing expectations than Edison, although our forecasts are based on a continuation of current spot prices for the remainder of FY20 and only our FY21 silver price forecast is above the current spot price.
FY20e by quarter
In the light of the refinements to our assumptions discussed on page 1, our forecasts for FY20 silver and gold production of 21.6Moz and 375.6koz compare with guidance of 21.5–22.5Moz and 365–385koz, respectively. Our resulting detailed operational and financial forecasts for WPM for FY20, by quarter, are then as follows:
Exhibit 1: WPM FY20 forecast, by quarter*
US$000s |
FY19 |
Q120 |
Q220 |
Q320e |
Q420e |
FY20e |
Q320e |
Q420e |
FY20e |
Silver production (koz) |
22,562 |
6,704 |
3,650 |
5,926 |
5,926 |
22,207 |
5,275 |
5,926 |
21,555 |
Gold production (oz) |
406,675 |
94,707 |
88,631 |
98,151 |
99,044 |
380,533 |
93,187 |
99,044 |
375,569 |
Palladium production (koz) |
21,993 |
5,312 |
5,759 |
5,938 |
5,938 |
22,946 |
5,938 |
5,938 |
22,946 |
Silver sales (koz) |
17,703 |
4,928 |
4,729 |
5,241 |
5,926 |
20,825 |
4,617 |
5,926 |
20,200 |
Gold sales (oz) |
389,086 |
100,405 |
92,804 |
86,774 |
99,007 |
378,990 |
81,538 |
99,007 |
373,754 |
Palladium sales (oz) |
20,681 |
4,938 |
4,976 |
5,230 |
5,914 |
21,058 |
5,177 |
5,914 |
21,004 |
Avg realised Ag price (US$/oz) |
16.29 |
17.03 |
16.73 |
24.16 |
25.79 |
21.25 |
24.36 |
24.03 |
20.69 |
Avg realised Au price (US$/oz) |
1,391 |
1,589 |
1,716 |
1,911 |
1,927 |
1,782 |
1,911 |
1,904 |
1,774 |
Avg realised Pd price (US$/oz) |
1,542 |
2,298 |
1,917 |
2,070 |
2,062 |
2,085 |
2,172 |
2,375 |
2,199 |
Avg Ag cash cost (US$/oz) |
5.02 |
4.50 |
5.23 |
5.52 |
5.58 |
5.23 |
5.49 |
5.51 |
5.19 |
Avg Au cash cost (US$/oz) |
421 |
436 |
418 |
424 |
424 |
423 |
422 |
424 |
422 |
Avg Pd cash cost (US$/oz) |
273 |
402 |
353 |
373 |
371 |
374 |
391 |
428 |
395 |
Sales |
861,332 |
254,789 |
247,954 |
303,254 |
355,821 |
1,161,819 |
279,533 |
344,987 |
1,127,263 |
Cost of sales |
|||||||||
Cost of sales, excluding depletion |
258,559 |
66,908 |
65,211 |
67,709 |
77,305 |
277,132 |
61,801 |
77,215 |
271,134 |
Depletion |
256,826 |
64,841 |
58,661 |
61,492 |
69,831 |
254,824 |
55,473 |
69,831 |
248,805 |
Total cost of sales |
515,385 |
131,748 |
123,872 |
129,201 |
147,136 |
531,957 |
117,274 |
147,046 |
519,940 |
Earnings from operations |
345,947 |
123,040 |
124,082 |
174,053 |
208,685 |
629,862 |
162,259 |
197,941 |
607,324 |
Expenses and other income |
|||||||||
– General and administrative** |
54,507 |
13,181 |
21,799 |
13,627 |
13,627 |
62,234 |
13,627 |
13,627 |
62,234 |
– Foreign exchange (gain)/loss |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||||||
– Net interest paid/(received) |
48,730 |
7,118 |
4,636 |
4,009 |
2,310 |
18,073 |
4,009 |
2,450 |
18,213 |
– Other (income)/expense |
(217) |
(1,861) |
234 |
(1,627) |
-1,627 |
||||
Total expenses and other income |
103,020 |
18,438 |
26,669 |
17,636 |
15,937 |
78,680 |
17,636 |
16,076 |
78,819 |
Earnings before income taxes |
242,927 |
104,602 |
97,413 |
156,417 |
192,748 |
551,182 |
144,623 |
181,865 |
528,505 |
Income tax expense/(recovery) |
(9,066) |
8,442 |
59 |
250 |
250 |
9,001 |
250 |
250 |
9,001 |
Marginal tax rate (%) |
(3.7) |
8.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
1.6 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
1.7 |
Net earnings |
251,993 |
96,160 |
97,354 |
156,167 |
192,498 |
542,181 |
144,373 |
181,615 |
519,504 |
Ave. no. shares in issue (000s) |
446,021 |
447,805 |
448,636 |
448,636 |
448,946 |
448,428 |
448,636 |
448,946 |
448,428 |
Basic EPS (US$) |
0.56 |
0.215 |
0.217 |
0.348 |
0.429 |
1.209 |
0.322 |
0.405 |
1.158 |
Diluted EPS (US$) |
0.56 |
0.214 |
0.216 |
0.347 |
0.428 |
1.207 |
0.321 |
0.404 |
1.156 |
DPS (US$) |
0.36 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
0.10 |
0.15 |
0.45 |
0.10 |
0.13 |
0.43 |
Source: Wheaton Precious Metals, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Excluding impairments and exceptional items. **Forecasts now include stock-based compensation costs. Totals may not add up owing to rounding.
Readers should note the slightly uncharacteristic Edison assumption in Q3 that there will be a 12.5% under-sale of both gold and silver, relative to production (cf 11.4% previously) to allow inventories to recover by an approximate 20,000oz gold equivalent. Otherwise, our updated basic EPS forecast of US$1.158/share for FY20 (cf US$1.209/share previously) is now just 7.2% above the consensus forecast of US$1.08/share (cf 23.4% above the consensus of US$0.98/share previously – see our note entitled Barely missing a beat, published on 18 August 2020) as the consensus has moved higher since Q2 results:
Exhibit 2: WPM FY20 consensus EPS forecasts, by quarter (US$/share)
Q120 |
Q220 |
Q320e |
Q420e |
Sum Q1–Q420 |
FY20e |
|
Updated Edison forecasts |
0.215 |
0.217 |
0.322 |
0.405 |
1.158 |
1.158 |
Previous Edison forecasts |
0.215 |
0.217 |
0.348 |
0.429 |
1.209 |
1.209 |
Mean consensus |
0.215 |
0.217 |
0.32 |
0.37 |
1.122 |
1.08 |
High consensus |
0.215 |
0.217 |
0.39 |
0.44 |
1.262 |
1.26 |
Low consensus |
0.215 |
0.217 |
0.24 |
0.27 |
0.942 |
0.94 |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: As at 9 October 2020.
In the meantime, our US$1.78 basic EPS forecast for FY21 (see Exhibit 5) is ostensibly unchanged and compares with a consensus of US$1.43/share within a range of US$1.09–2.19/share (source: Refinitiv, 9 October 2020) and compares with a consensus of US$1.20 on 13 August 2020. In this case, our estimate is predicated on an average gold price during the year of US$1,892/oz and an average silver price of US$30.78/oz, which assumes, among other things, that the silver price will revert to the long-term correlation that it has exhibited with gold since the latter was demonetised in 1971. In the event that both metals remain at current levels however (US$24.21/oz Ag and US$1,909/oz Au at the time of writing), our forecast for WPM’s EPS in FY21 moderates to US$1.50 per share.
Valuation
Excluding FY04 (part-year), WPM’s shares have historically traded on an average P/E multiple of 29.5x current year basic underlying EPS, excluding impairments (cf 42.0x Edison or 44.5x Refinitiv consensus FY20e, currently – see Exhibit 4).
|
Exhibit 3: WPM’s historical current year P/E multiples, 2005–19 |
|
|
Source: Edison Investment Research |
Applying this 29.5x multiple to our updated EPS forecast of US$1.78 in FY21 would ordinarily imply a potential value per share for WPM of US$52.44 or C$69.03 in that year (vs US$52.05, or C$68.71 previously). However, it is clearly apparent from the graph above that WPM’s current year multiple has been higher for some time and the last two years would suggest that a multiple in excess of 40x earnings could be sustainable – notwithstanding the fact that these years were not subject to the extraordinary trials and tribulations being experienced in FY20. In this case, applying a 42.0x earnings multiple (the average of FY18 and FY19) to our updated EPS forecast of US$1.78 in FY21 implies a potential value per share for WPM of US$74.65 or C$98.27 in that year (cf US$74.65 or C$98.27 previously) and/or for as long as precious metals prices remain at higher levels and/or the current coronavirus crisis persists. Even at such elevated levels however, a multiple of over 42.0x would still leave WPM’s shares at a noticeable discount to those of its obvious peers (ie Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold), as demonstrated in Exhibit 4.
Note that neither of these valuations include the value of 20.2m shares in First Majestic currently held by WPM, with an immediate value (9 October) of C$262.5m, or US$0.44 per WPM share.
In the meantime, from a relative perspective, it is notable that WPM has a lower valuation than the average of its royalty/streaming ‘peers’ on all but one of six valuation measures. On an individual basis, it is cheaper than its peers on at least 62% (15 out of 24) of the valuation measures used in Exhibit 4 if our estimates are adopted or 50% of the same valuation measures if consensus forecasts are adopted; among other things, this could possibly indicate the market has more conservative precious metal pricing expectations than Edison (albeit our forecasts are based on a continuation of current spot prices for the remainder of the year and only our FY21 silver price forecast is above its spot price, currently).
Exhibit 4: WPM comparative valuation vs a sample of operating and royalty/streaming companies
P/E (x) |
Yield (%) |
P/CF (x) |
||||
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
|
Royalty companies |
||||||
Franco-Nevada |
58.1 |
45.5 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
37.1 |
28.9 |
Royal Gold |
34.9 |
32.7 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
18.0 |
17.4 |
Sandstorm Gold |
68.2 |
46.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
23.0 |
18.5 |
Osisko |
58.6 |
29.2 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
23.0 |
16.0 |
Average |
54.9 |
38.5 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
25.3 |
20.2 |
WPM (Edison forecasts) |
42.0 |
27.1 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
26.1 |
19.4 |
WPM (consensus) |
44.5 |
33.7 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
28.7 |
23.1 |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Peers priced on 9 October 2020.
Exhibit 5: Financial summary
US$000 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
|||
Year end December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
849,560 |
706,472 |
620,176 |
648,687 |
891,557 |
843,215 |
794,012 |
861,332 |
1,127,263 |
1,487,014 |
|
Cost of Sales |
(117,489) |
(139,352) |
(151,097) |
(190,214) |
(254,434) |
(243,801) |
(245,794) |
(258,559) |
(271,134) |
(306,538) |
|||
Gross Profit |
732,071 |
567,120 |
469,079 |
458,473 |
637,123 |
599,414 |
548,218 |
602,773 |
856,129 |
1,180,476 |
|||
EBITDA |
|
|
701,232 |
531,812 |
431,219 |
426,236 |
602,684 |
564,741 |
496,568 |
548,266 |
793,896 |
1,118,242 |
|
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
600,003 |
387,659 |
271,039 |
227,655 |
293,982 |
302,361 |
244,281 |
291,440 |
545,090 |
805,096 |
|||
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
(68,151) |
(384,922) |
(71,000) |
(228,680) |
245,715 |
(165,855) |
2,336 |
0 |
|||
Other |
788 |
(11,202) |
(1,830) |
(4,076) |
(4,982) |
8,129 |
(5,826) |
217 |
1,627 |
0 |
|||
Operating Profit |
600,791 |
376,457 |
201,058 |
(161,343) |
218,000 |
81,810 |
484,170 |
125,802 |
549,053 |
805,096 |
|||
Net Interest |
0 |
(6,083) |
(2,277) |
(4,090) |
(24,193) |
(24,993) |
(41,187) |
(48,730) |
(18,213) |
(5,753) |
|||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
600,003 |
381,576 |
268,762 |
223,565 |
269,789 |
277,368 |
203,094 |
242,710 |
526,878 |
799,343 |
|
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
600,791 |
370,374 |
198,781 |
(165,433) |
193,807 |
56,817 |
442,983 |
77,072 |
530,841 |
799,343 |
|
Tax |
(14,755) |
5,121 |
1,045 |
3,391 |
1,330 |
886 |
(15,868) |
9,066 |
(13,859) |
(1,000) |
|||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
586,036 |
375,495 |
267,977 |
222,880 |
266,137 |
286,383 |
181,400 |
251,993 |
514,646 |
798,343 |
|||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
586,036 |
375,495 |
199,826 |
(162,042) |
195,137 |
57,703 |
427,115 |
86,138 |
516,982 |
798,343 |
|||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
353.9 |
355.6 |
359.4 |
395.8 |
430.5 |
442.0 |
443.4 |
446.0 |
448.4 |
448.6 |
|||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
166 |
106 |
75 |
53 |
62 |
63 |
48 |
56 |
115 |
178 |
|
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c) |
|
165 |
105 |
74 |
53 |
62 |
63 |
48 |
56 |
115 |
178 |
||
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
166 |
106 |
56 |
(-41) |
45 |
13 |
96 |
19 |
115 |
178 |
|
Dividend per share (c) |
35 |
45 |
26 |
20 |
21 |
33 |
36 |
36 |
43 |
70 |
|||
Gross Margin (%) |
86.2 |
80.3 |
75.6 |
70.7 |
71.5 |
71.1 |
69.0 |
70.0 |
75.9 |
79.4 |
|||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
82.5 |
75.3 |
69.5 |
65.7 |
67.6 |
67.0 |
62.5 |
63.7 |
70.4 |
75.2 |
|||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
70.6 |
54.9 |
43.7 |
35.1 |
33.0 |
35.9 |
30.8 |
33.8 |
48.4 |
54.1 |
|||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
2,403,958 |
4,288,557 |
4,309,270 |
5,526,335 |
6,025,227 |
5,579,898 |
6,390,342 |
6,123,255 |
5,876,450 |
5,565,304 |
|
Intangible Assets |
2,281,234 |
4,242,086 |
4,270,971 |
5,494,244 |
5,948,443 |
5,454,106 |
6,196,187 |
5,768,883 |
5,522,078 |
5,210,932 |
|||
Tangible Assets |
1,347 |
5,670 |
5,427 |
12,315 |
12,163 |
30,060 |
29,402 |
44,615 |
44,615 |
44,615 |
|||
Investments |
121,377 |
40,801 |
32,872 |
19,776 |
64,621 |
95,732 |
164,753 |
309,757 |
309,757 |
309,757 |
|||
Current Assets |
|
|
785,379 |
101,287 |
338,493 |
105,876 |
128,092 |
103,415 |
79,704 |
154,752 |
741,548 |
1,541,857 |
|
Stocks |
966 |
845 |
26,263 |
1,455 |
1,481 |
1,700 |
1,541 |
43,628 |
2,024 |
2,670 |
|||
Debtors |
6,197 |
4,619 |
4,132 |
1,124 |
2,316 |
3,194 |
2,396 |
7,138 |
3,088 |
4,074 |
|||
Cash |
778,216 |
95,823 |
308,098 |
103,297 |
124,295 |
98,521 |
75,767 |
103,986 |
736,435 |
1,535,113 |
|||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(49,458) |
(21,134) |
(16,171) |
(12,568) |
(19,057) |
(12,143) |
(28,841) |
(64,700) |
(79,648) |
(83,140) |
|
Creditors |
(20,898) |
(21,134) |
(16,171) |
(12,568) |
(19,057) |
(12,143) |
(28,841) |
(63,976) |
(78,924) |
(82,416) |
|||
Short term borrowings |
(28,560) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(724) |
(724) |
(724) |
|||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(32,805) |
(1,002,164) |
(1,002,856) |
(1,468,908) |
(1,194,274) |
(771,506) |
(1,269,289) |
(887,387) |
(887,387) |
(887,387) |
|
Long term borrowings |
(21,500) |
(998,136) |
(998,518) |
(1,466,000) |
(1,193,000) |
(770,000) |
(1,264,000) |
(878,028) |
(878,028) |
(878,028) |
|||
Other long term liabilities |
(11,305) |
(4,028) |
(4,338) |
(2,908) |
(1,274) |
(1,506) |
(5,289) |
(9,359) |
(9,359) |
(9,359) |
|||
Net Assets |
|
|
3,107,074 |
3,366,546 |
3,628,736 |
4,150,735 |
4,939,988 |
4,899,664 |
5,171,916 |
5,325,920 |
5,650,962 |
6,136,633 |
|
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
720,209 |
540,597 |
434,582 |
435,783 |
608,503 |
564,187 |
518,680 |
548,301 |
856,125 |
1,120,103 |
|
Net Interest |
0 |
(6,083) |
(2,277) |
(4,090) |
(24,193) |
(24,993) |
(41,187) |
(41,242) |
(18,213) |
(5,753) |
|||
Tax |
(725) |
(154) |
(204) |
(208) |
28 |
(326) |
0 |
(5,380) |
(9,001) |
(1,000) |
|||
Capex |
(641,976) |
(2,050,681) |
(146,249) |
(1,791,275) |
(805,472) |
(19,633) |
(861,406) |
10,571 |
(2,000) |
(2,000) |
|||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Financing |
12,919 |
58,004 |
6,819 |
761,824 |
595,140 |
1,236 |
1,279 |
37,198 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Dividends |
(123,852) |
(160,013) |
(79,775) |
(68,593) |
(78,708) |
(121,934) |
(132,915) |
(129,986) |
(194,462) |
(312,672) |
|||
Net Cash Flow |
(33,425) |
(1,618,330) |
212,896 |
(666,559) |
295,298 |
398,537 |
(515,549) |
419,462 |
632,449 |
798,677 |
|||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(761,581) |
(728,156) |
902,313 |
690,420 |
1,362,703 |
1,068,705 |
671,479 |
1,188,233 |
774,766 |
142,317 |
|
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other |
0 |
(12,139) |
(1,003) |
(5,724) |
(1,300) |
(1,311) |
(1,205) |
(5,995) |
0 |
0 |
|||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(728,156) |
902,313 |
690,420 |
1,362,703 |
1,068,705 |
671,479 |
1,188,233 |
774,766 |
142,317 |
(656,361) |
|
Source: Company sources, Edison Investment Research
|
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|
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Research: TMT
XP Power’s Q3 trading update confirmed that production volumes grew rapidly in its Asian facilities, allowing the company to satisfy some of the orders placed in H120. As expected, bookings returned to a more normal level in Q3. XP reported 28% y-o-y growth in revenues for Q3, prompting upgrades to our FY20/21 revenue and EPS forecasts. The company also announced that CEO Duncan Penny will retire at the end of the year, to be replaced by current CFO Gavin Griggs from 1 January 2021.
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