JDC Group — Q3 affected by low German consumer confidence

JDC Group (SCALE: JDC)

Last close As at 19/11/2025

EUR26.10

−2.50 (−8.74%)

Market capitalisation

EUR391m

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Research: Financials

JDC Group — Q3 affected by low German consumer confidence

JDC Group reported a 5.6% increase in revenues, to €55.1m, and 9.1% higher EBITDA of €2.5m in Q325. Management reiterated FY25 guidance for revenues of €260–280m and EBITDA of €20.5–22.5m, but said it expected results to come in at the lower end of the range due to increasingly negative consumer confidence in Germany. Management also reiterated FY26 EBITDA forecast of over €35m. The recently acquired 60% stake in FMK Group was consolidated in JDC’s results as of 1 September and contributed to the results for one month. We have lowered our estimates to reflect the shift in the guided range. At our new estimates, we still believe that JDC’s valuation is undemanding. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis arrives at a fair value of €35.63 per share (previously €36.89 per share).

Milosz Papst

Written by

Milosz Papst

Director of Content, Investment Trusts

Diversified financials

Q325 results

20 November 2025

Price €27.40
Market cap €391m

Net cash/(debt) at end September

€(52.7)m

Shares in issue

13.7m
Code JDC
Primary exchange FRA
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs 0.0 (3.4) 21.2
52-week high/low €32.7 €18.1

Business description

JDC Group is a leading German insurance platform, providing advice and financial services for professional intermediaries and banks but also directly for end-customers. JDC’s digital platform, for end-clients and for the administration and processing of insurance products, is also provided as a white-label product.

Analysts

Milosz Papst
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Edwin De Jong
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

JDC Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: EPS and EBITDA are reported.

Year end Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m) EPS (€) DPS (€) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x)
12/23 171.7 11.7 0.28 0.00 37.9 98.1
12/24 220.9 15.1 0.43 0.00 29.3 63.3
12/25e 261.0 20.7 0.60 0.00 21.4 45.7
12/26e 328.1 36.5 1.03 0.00 12.2 26.6

Lower German confidence leads to slower growth

JDC’s largest division, Advisortech (over 80% of revenues), saw 5.0% revenue growth in Q325, while Advisory’s revenues saw a solid increase of 14.6% to €13.8m. Against a backdrop of increasingly pessimistic German economic sentiment and a comparison base from Q324, when life insurance transactions were particularly strong, Insurtech revenues saw only a single-digit increase. The fourth quarter is usually by far the strongest quarter of the year for JDC and Q425 seems likely to be no exception, with total revenues of €84.0m expected, at the low end of guidance, compared to €62.7m in Q4 last year.

FMK acquisition progresses as planned

The acquisition of FMK was consolidated into JDC’s results as of 1 September. Revenues in Q3 (€2.3m) were largely offset by M&A costs, but a material contribution to revenues and EBITDA is expected in Q4. Work on the platform where leads generated by FMK are collected and distributed through JDC’s network is progressing well and is planned to be completed in Q126. The platform is expected to give JDC more control over its revenue streams and make the company less dependent on major clients. Revenues from these clients increased 18% in the first nine months.

Valuation undemanding

After materially raising our estimates following the acquisition of FMK (see our previous note), we now slightly lower our estimates on the back of the results. We assume revenues of €261.0m in FY25 (-3.4% compared our previous estimate) and EBITDA of €20.7m (-3.5%), in line with guidance. We have also slightly lowered our FY26 estimates, but still believe that reaching FY26 EBITDA target of >€35m should be within reach. Our DCF analysis arrives at a fair value of €35.63 per share (€36.89 per share previously).

Revision of forecasts

We have slightly lowered our estimates following the Q3 results and lower guidance. FY25 revenues are now expected to come in at €261.0m, driven by an almost 20% increase in key accounts, lower growth in Independent Financial Advisories, which had a very strong FY24, and higher growth in Advisory. Growth of 37.1% in EBITDA and 53.5% in FY25 EPS compared to FY24is impressive in a market environment that is not particularly supportive. In comparison, German competitor Hypoport’s insurance platform business, which also operates mostly in Germany, showed negative EBIT and revenue growth over the first nine months of the year. We have also slightly lowered our revenue, EBITDA and EPS estimates for FY26, but our EBITDA estimate remains in line with guidance (>€35m).

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