Regional REIT — Q124 DPS unchanged ahead of refinancing

Regional REIT (LSE: RGL)

Last close As at 24/06/2024

GBP0.21

0.35 (1.67%)

Market capitalisation

GBP110m

More on this equity

Research: Real Estate

Regional REIT — Q124 DPS unchanged ahead of refinancing

For Q124, Regional REIT (RGL) has maintained the rate of quarterly DPS at 1.2p. We expect DPS for the year will partly depend on RGL’s chosen re-financing route. Meanwhile, RGL’s asset disposal programme continues to progress. Portfolio EPC ratings have continued to show good improvement and, adjusted for disposals, rent roll and occupancy were robust. We have made no changes to our forecasts.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Real Estate

Regional REIT

Q124 DPS unchanged ahead of refinancing

Q124 trading update

Real estate

22 May 2024

Price

21p

Market cap

£108m

Net debt (£m) at 31 March 2024

379.7

Net LTV at 31 March 2024

55.2%

Shares in issue

515.7m

Free float

88%

Code

RGL

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Regional REIT is focused on office assets in the regional centres of the UK, outside the M25, highly diversified by property, tenants and the underlying industry exposure of those tenants. It is actively managed and targets a total shareholder return of at least 10% with a strong focus on income.

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Regional REIT is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

For Q124, Regional REIT (RGL) has maintained the rate of quarterly DPS at 1.2p. We expect DPS for the year will partly depend on RGL’s chosen re-financing route. Meanwhile, RGL’s asset disposal programme continues to progress. Portfolio EPC ratings have continued to show good improvement and, adjusted for disposals, rent roll and occupancy were robust. We have made no changes to our forecasts.

Year end

Net rental income (£m)

EPRA earnings* (£m)

EPRA EPS*
(p)

NAV**/
share (p)

DPS
(p)

P/NAV
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

62.6

34.1

6.6

73.5

6.60

0.34

26.4

12/23

53.7

27.0

5.2

56.4

5.25

0.44

21.0

12/24e

53.5

25.0

4.8

56.4

4.80

0.44

19.2

Note: *EPRA earnings exclude revaluation movements, gains/losses on disposal and other non-recurring items. EPRA EPS is fully diluted. **NAV is EPRA net tangible assets per share.

The Q124 DPS will be paid on 12 July to shareholders on the register at 31 May. The company remains focused on reducing LTV back towards its 40% long-term target and finding the most appropriate solution for the £50m 4.5% unsecured retail bond, which is due to mature in August. RGL says that it is continuing to make progress on the debt and equity refinancing options alongside its disposal programme. Based on the end-FY23 external portfolio valuation, adjusted for subsequent disposals and capex, end-Q124 LTV is little changed at 55.2%, although gross borrowings were reduced by c £8m to c £413m. Cash and equivalents of £33.5m were also little changed in the period.

Q1 property sales amounted to £15.0m (before costs) at a blended net initial yield of 9.2%. Further sales of £1.1m (before costs), above valuation, have been completed since, and the updated disposal programme now includes 59 properties totalling £111m. Of this, 11 properties (£24m) are under offer or in legal due diligence, four (£9m) are in negotiation, 12 (£15m) are being marketed, and 32 potential disposals (£63m) are being prepared for market.

Rent collection continues to be strong and Q1 was above the prior year level at the same stage. Positive leasing momentum was maintained, with notable new lettings amounting to £1.2m pa of rental income when fully occupied, at blended average rental uplift of 9.1% to December’s ERV, and £1.2m of notable lease renewals at a 4.4% uplift to ERV. EPRA occupancy was 79.9% (end-FY23: 80.0%) but, allowing for expiries and including asset sales (we estimate £1.4m pa of rental income), rent roll was £2.3m lower at £65.5m.

Providing support for leasing, the portfolio sustainability metrics continued to improve after strong gains in FY23. The proportion of the portfolio rated EPC C or better (a 2027 minimum regulatory requirement) is now 82%, up from 73% in December. RGL is confident of meeting EPC targets through a combination of its rolling capex programmes, aligned with leasing events, and the disposal of remaining EPC D and E rated properties.

We have made no changes to EPRA earnings or DPS forecasts, and external valuations of RGL’s portfolio occur on a six-monthly basis. Most importantly, we await details of RGL’s refinancing plans.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Regional REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Regional REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

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United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Regional REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Regional REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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