Incannex Healthcare — Progressing the opportunity in anxiety treatment

Incannex Healthcare (NASDAQ: IXHL)

Currency in USD

Last close As at 02/02/2023

USD3.24

−0.18 (−5.26%)

Market capitalisation

USD208m

Research: Healthcare

Incannex Healthcare — Progressing the opportunity in anxiety treatment

Following continued patient enrolment in Incannex’s ongoing Australian Phase II Psi-GAD1 study (ACTRN12621001358831), management has announced the commencement of an independent analysis of the interim data. The company expects the interim results from the study of psilocybin-assisted psychotherapy in generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) to be reported in March 2023. In our view, positive results would represent a significant catalyst for Incannex, considering the large GAD patient population (c 6.8 million US adults), lack of consistently effective first-line treatments and safety issues associated with long-term medication. We expect management to use the results of the Psi-GAD1 trial, assuming they are positive, to support potential Phase II FDA approved studies in FY23. We continue to value Incannex at US$736.6m or US$11.7 per ADR, including the issued shares from the A$13m private placement in December 2022.

Soo Romanoff

Written by

Soo Romanoff

Managing Director - Head of Content, Healthcare

incannex07

Healthcare

Incannex Healthcare

Progressing the opportunity in anxiety treatment

Clinical trial update

Pharma and biotech

19 January 2023

Price

US$3.28

Market cap

US$203m

ADR/Ord conversion ratio 1:25

US$/A$ 0.70

Pro forma net cash and gross proceeds (US$m) at 5 December 2022

30.6

ADRs in issue

63.0m

ADR code

IXHL

ADR exchange

NASDAQ-GM

Underlying exchange

ASX

Depository

DBK

Share price performance

Business description

Incannex Healthcare is an Australian dual-listed biotech company focused on developing medicinal cannabis pharmaceutical products and psychedelic medicine therapies. These therapies are being designed to target indications with unmet need, including obstructive sleep apnea, generalised anxiety disorder, trauma and inflammatory conditions.

Analysts

Soo Romanoff

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dr Harry Shrives

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Incannex Healthcare is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Following continued patient enrolment in Incannex’s ongoing Australian Phase II Psi-GAD1 study (ACTRN12621001358831), management has announced the commencement of an independent analysis of the interim data. The company expects the interim results from the study of psilocybin-assisted psychotherapy in generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) to be reported in March 2023. In our view, positive results would represent a significant catalyst for Incannex, considering the large GAD patient population (c 6.8 million US adults), lack of consistently effective first-line treatments and safety issues associated with long-term medication. We expect management to use the results of the Psi-GAD1 trial, assuming they are positive, to support potential Phase II FDAapproved studies in FY23. We continue to value Incannex at US$736.6m or US$11.7 per ADR, including the issued shares from the A$13m private placement in December 2022.

Year end

Revenue
(A$m)

PBT*
(A$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/21

2.0

(8.2)

(0.83)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/22

0.8

(14.9)

(1.25)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/23e

0.0

(20.6)

(1.35)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/24e

0.0

(33.4)

(2.12)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

The ongoing Australian Phase II Psi-GAD1 study is a triple-blind, active placebo-controlled trial to assess the safety, efficacy and tolerability of psilocybin-assisted psychotherapy in patients with GAD. A team of experienced clinicians is conducting the Psi-GAD1 trial at the globally recognized Monash University’s BrainPark. The study aims to recruit a total of 72 patients (30 in Phase IIa, 42 in Phase IIb) and, when interim analysis commenced, it had enrolled 45 participants with 29 having completed the 10-week treatment protocol. The interim analysis will be conducted by an independent Data Safety Monitoring Board formed of subject experts. Incannex’s management intends to use the interim analysis to make key decisions on regulatory strategy and potential pivotal studies.

Psilocybin is a naturally occurring psychoactive compound which, in combination with psychotherapy, management believes could be an effective treatment for GAD. It is estimated that around 6.8 million US adults suffer from GAD (c 3% of the US population), representing a significant patient population. First-line treatment for GAD is often psychotherapy followed by medications, including anti-depressants, pregabalin (an anxiolytic) and benzodiazepines (tranquilisers). However, c 50% of patients treated for GAD will not respond to first-line treatment and long-term use of existing medications may result in adverse side effects including dependence, irritability and dizziness. Therefore, we believe the GAD treatment market represents a significant opportunity for Incannex, should results from Psi-GAD1 prove positive.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Incannex Healthcare and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Incannex Healthcare. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Incannex Healthcare and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Incannex Healthcare. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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