Norcros — Positive progress in H1

Norcros (LSE: NXR)

Last close As at 21/05/2024

GBP2.20

2.00 (0.92%)

Market capitalisation

GBP198m

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

Norcros — Positive progress in H1

The Norcros H119 pre-close update reiterated management’s expectations for progress in FY19. Trading newsflow was similar to that reported in Q1 – with a good uplift to UK EBIT anticipated for H119 and a growing South African top-line – albeit with an implicitly slightly quieter second quarter. Brand presence, coupled with product and channel diversity, appears to be supporting ongoing progress in variable market conditions. Our estimates are unchanged and H119 results are scheduled for 15 November.

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Industrials

Norcros

Positive progress in H1

H119 pre close update

Construction & materials

18 October 2018

Price

205p

Market cap

£164m

£/ZAR18.7

Net debt (£m) at end March 2018

47.1

Shares in issue

80.2m

Free float

98%

Code

NXR

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(1.0)

(3.3)

15.4

Rel (local)

3.1

4.7

22.7

52-week high/low

230.0p

172.0p

Business description

Norcros is a leading supplier of showers, enclosures and trays, tiles, taps and related fittings and accessories for bathrooms, kitchens, washrooms and other commercial environments. It has operations in the UK and South Africa, with some export activity from both countries.

Next event

H119 results

15 November

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Norcros is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The Norcros H119 pre-close update reiterated management’s expectations for progress in FY19. Trading newsflow was similar to that reported in Q1 – with a good uplift to UK EBIT anticipated for H119 and a growing South African top-line – albeit with an implicitly slightly quieter second quarter. Brand presence, coupled with product and channel diversity, appears to be supporting ongoing progress in variable market conditions. Our estimates are unchanged and H119 results are scheduled for 15 November.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/17

271.2

20.7

24.4

7.2

8.4

3.5

03/18

300.1

24.4

26.8

7.8

7.6

3.8

03/19e

328.7

30.9

29.3

8.4

7.0

4.1

03/20e

338.0

32.9

31.0

9.0

6.6

4.4

Note: *PBT and EPS FD are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and change in fair value of derivatives.

Good UK EBIT uplift anticipated for H119

A c £19m maiden H1 revenue contribution from Merlyn with above UK average divisional margins is likely to be a key trading highlight when the interim results are reported. While Johnson Tiles’ revenues will be lower y-o-y – reducing B&Q sales exposure – a recovery to profitability, following its restructuring should also provide a boost to EBIT. Apart from these specific features, organic revenue growth from the other UK portfolio companies collectively was c 2.5% in H1. Trade remains the most resilient sub-sector, especially in the residential new build supply chain while retail channels have been more challenging (eg in DIY with Homebase) and export markets variable.

Growing the South African top line

South Africa continues to deliver good revenue growth rates, achieving +7.1% progress in H1 in local currency (or +3.9% in sterling) all organically. Johnson Tiles SA has had a busy period enhancing processes to improve production yields and effectively raise capacity, while at the same time growing revenues including third-party product. Implicitly, the Tile Africa retail operations and TAL Adhesives must also be making some top line progress. We note that the rand has weakened against sterling since the beginning of the year; the H1 average rate was broadly in line with our modelled £/ZAR 17.5 assumption but we may need to revisit this when the interim results are reported if the current £/ZAR 18.7 level persists.

Valuation: Superior performance, inferior rating

The Norcros share price has outperformed the FTSE All-Share Index by c 20% ytd having risen by c 12% over this time period. Nevertheless, the company’s FY19e P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples (adjusted for pension recovery cash) are still only 7.0x and 5.1x respectively. A triennial DB pension scheme review is underway (based on a 1 April 2018 valuation). Norcros can comfortably meet its existing funding obligations and we consider that this is unlikely to change. Therefore, this should not be a drag on valuation.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£m

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Revenue

 

 

200.3

210.7

218.7

222.1

235.9

271.2

300.1

328.7

338.0

345.7

Cost of Sales

 

 

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Gross Profit

 

 

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA

 

 

18.6

19.9

22.9

24.3

28.0

31.6

34.7

42.3

44.5

46.1

Operating Profit (before SBP)

 

 

12.3

13.7

17.0

18.3

22.5

25.2

28.3

35.6

37.6

39.2

Net Interest

 

 

(1.4)

(1.3)

(1.5)

(1.2)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(1.1)

(2.0)

(2.0)

(1.9)

Other financial - norm

 

 

(0.9)

(2.4)

(2.6)

(3.1)

(3.1)

(3.6)

(2.8)

(2.7)

(2.7)

(2.7)

Other financial

 

 

0.6

(0.2)

(5.2)

2.1

(0.2)

(4.2)

(4.5)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

Intangible Amortisation

 

 

0.0

0.0

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.9)

(1.2)

(2.2)

(3.5)

(3.5)

(3.5)

Exceptionals

 

 

(1.2)

(4.4)

(1.5)

(4.8)

(2.0)

(3.8)

(4.2)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

10.0

10.0

12.9

14.0

18.5

20.7

24.4

30.9

32.9

34.6

Profit Before Tax (company norm)

 

10.7

11.7

14.6

15.8

20.4

22.9

26.3

32.7

34.7

36.4

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

9.4

5.4

5.8

11.0

15.4

11.5

13.5

25.0

27.0

28.7

Tax

 

 

0.0

0.2

4.3

(3.0)

(2.4)

(3.0)

(3.6)

(6.1)

(6.5)

(6.9)

Other

 

 

0.0

0.0

(1.4)

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

10.4

9.3

13.9

11.1

16.1

17.7

20.8

24.8

26.4

27.7

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

9.4

5.6

8.7

8.1

13.0

8.5

9.9

18.9

20.5

21.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

57.7

58.0

58.4

59.2

60.6

61.1

68.0

80.5

81.2

81.9

Average Number of Shares Outstanding FD (m)

58.0

58.9

60.8

61.5

62.2

63.1

69.8

82.2

82.9

83.6

EPS FD - normalised (p)

 

 

17.9

15.8

22.8

18.0

24.7

24.4

26.8

29.3

31.0

32.3

EPS FD - company normalised (p)

 

 

19.2

18.7

27.9

21.1

27.7

27.8

29.5

31.5

33.1

34.5

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

 

 

16.2

9.5

14.3

13.2

19.7

9.8

11.2

22.1

23.9

25.3

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

4.2

4.6

5.1

5.6

6.6

7.2

7.8

8.4

9.0

9.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

 

9.3

9.4

10.5

10.9

11.9

11.7

11.6

12.9

13.2

13.3

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

6.1

6.5

7.8

8.2

9.5

9.3

9.4

10.8

11.1

11.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

80.0

86.7

80.0

78.3

93.4

98.8

147.9

149.7

149.3

148.9

Intangible Assets

 

 

23.4

27.6

27.1

26.9

44.7

44.8

98.9

97.4

93.9

90.4

Tangible Assets

 

 

44.8

43.5

36.9

37.6

38.2

43.0

45.0

48.3

51.4

54.5

Investments

 

 

11.8

15.6

16.0

13.8

10.5

11.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

Current Assets

 

 

89.7

104.6

102.2

100.4

119.4

165.3

165.1

170.0

187.4

205.1

Stocks

 

 

45.5

52.8

50.2

52.2

60.1

70.3

74.9

75.0

77.2

78.9

Debtors

 

 

34.5

36.3

48.1

42.6

53.4

57.5

64.4

68.8

70.8

72.5

Cash

 

 

2.9

6.8

3.9

5.6

5.9

37.5

25.8

26.1

39.4

53.7

Current Liabilities

 

 

(52.5)

(54.0)

(58.1)

(60.0)

(67.6)

(105.7)

(89.8)

(85.2)

(89.9)

(94.4)

Creditors

 

 

(52.1)

(53.5)

(57.3)

(58.6)

(64.8)

(74.8)

(81.3)

(85.2)

(89.9)

(94.4)

Short term borrowings

 

 

(0.4)

(0.5)

(0.8)

(1.4)

(2.8)

(30.9)

(8.5)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(46.1)

(75.7)

(58.6)

(67.4)

(97.6)

(101.8)

(118.6)

(117.5)

(116.2)

(115.0)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(20.3)

(37.0)

(30.5)

(18.4)

(35.6)

(29.8)

(64.4)

(64.4)

(64.4)

(64.4)

Other long term liabilities

 

 

(25.8)

(38.7)

(28.1)

(49.0)

(62.0)

(72.0)

(54.2)

(53.1)

(51.8)

(50.6)

Net Assets

 

 

71.1

61.6

65.5

51.3

47.6

56.6

104.6

117.0

130.5

144.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

6.0

6.6

13.6

16.2

18.5

25.5

23.5

35.3

38.4

40.4

Net Interest

 

 

(1.6)

(1.3)

(1.6)

(1.3)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(1.1)

(2.0)

(2.0)

(1.9)

Tax

 

 

(0.6)

(1.0)

(1.7)

(0.5)

(1.0)

(1.9)

(4.9)

(6.0)

(6.1)

(6.5)

Capex

 

 

(6.7)

(4.2)

(2.8)

(1.4)

(6.6)

(8.0)

(7.7)

(10.0)

(10.0)

(10.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

0.0

(10.6)

0.1

3.3

(23.6)

(2.7)

(59.1)

(2.0)

0.0

0.0

Financing

 

 

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

30.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

 

 

(2.2)

(2.5)

(2.8)

(3.1)

(3.6)

(4.2)

(5.0)

(6.5)

(7.0)

(7.7)

Net Cash Flow

 

 

(4.9)

(12.7)

5.2

13.4

(17.1)

7.9

(24.2)

8.8

13.3

14.3

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

10.6

17.8

30.7

27.4

14.2

32.5

23.2

47.1

38.3

25.0

HP finance leases initiated

 

 

(0.8)

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

 

 

(1.5)

(0.1)

(1.9)

(0.2)

(1.2)

1.5

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

17.8

30.7

27.4

14.2

32.5

23.1

47.1

38.3

25.0

10.7

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Norcros and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Norcros and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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GVC Holdings — Q3 trading update shows continued progress

In a continuation of previous trends, GVC’s Q318 trading update has demonstrated strong growth and market share gains across all territories. Total net gaming revenues (NGR) were up 14%, driven by a 28% growth in online NGR. UK retail was only down 2%, helped by a strong FIFA World Cup. The integration of Ladbrokes is progressing well, although GVC has announced that Paul Bowtell (former Ladbrokes CFO) will resign in March 2019. Our estimates remain unchanged, but there is a £20-25m risk to our EBITDA forecasts, following an anticipated increase in remote gaming duty (RGD) at the government’s budget on 29 October. The stock has fallen 19% from recent highs and trades at 10.0x EV/EBITDA and 13.0x P/E for 2018e.

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