Currency in NOK
Last close As at 17/03/2023
NOK103.20
▲ −0.80 (−0.77%)
Market capitalisation
NOK3,839m
Research: Healthcare
Ultimovacs has announced that patient enrolment has been completed (n=118) for the ongoing Phase II NIPU study investigating the company’s lead cancer vaccine candidate, UV1, in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), ipilimumab and nivolumab, in the treatment of patients with pleural mesothelioma. We see the successful patient enrolment for the trial as a positive indicator of Ultimovacs being on track to deliver top-line readouts from the study, which are expected in H123, representing one of the company’s most important near-term catalysts. Additionally, positive data readouts from the trial could, in our view, support potential licensing opportunities for Ultimovacs. We maintain our valuation at NOK7.9bn or NOK231 per share.
Ultimovacs |
Phase II milestone as licensing potential nears |
Clinical update |
Pharma and biotech |
23 January 2023 |
Share price performance Business description
Analysts
Ultimovacs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
Ultimovacs has announced that patient enrolment has been completed (n=118) for the ongoing Phase II NIPU study investigating the company’s lead cancer vaccine candidate, UV1, in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), ipilimumab and nivolumab, in the treatment of patients with pleural mesothelioma. We see the successful patient enrolment for the trial as a positive indicator of Ultimovacs being on track to deliver top-line readouts from the study, which are expected in H123, representing one of the company’s most important near-term catalysts. Additionally, positive data readouts from the trial could, in our view, support potential licensing opportunities for Ultimovacs. We maintain our valuation at NOK7.9bn or NOK231 per share.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/20 |
0.0 |
(120.6) |
(3.98) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/21 |
0.0 |
(164.7) |
(5.09) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/22e |
0.0 |
(159.2) |
(4.65) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23e |
0.0 |
(196.0) |
(5.73) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT is reported, EPS is fully diluted.
As a reminder, the NIPU study is a randomised, multi-centre trial enrolling patients with malignant mesothelioma (n=118, two arms with 59 patients in each) who have disease progressed following first-line standard platinum-based doublet chemotherapy. Patients recruited in the trial must not have undergone previous treatment with ICIs (naïve). Individuals in each study arm will receive the ICI combination ipilimumab plus nivolumab and those in the experimental arm will, in addition, be given the UV1 vaccine. The objective of the study is to achieve a clinically meaningful progression-free survival in the second-line setting. Bristol Myers Squibb is supporting the study with the provision of its ICI therapies.
2023 is set to be a big year of readouts for Ultimovacs and its off-the-shelf, lead clinical asset, UV1. The cancer vaccine has already reported encouraging long-term survival data from a Phase I study in melanoma and Phase II top-line readouts across various solid tumour indications are expected throughout the year, with the NIPU data and the INITIUM study (in malignant melanoma) both expected in H123.
We believe positive readouts from these studies may also open up potential licensing opportunities for Ultimovacs. Significant licensing deals have been achieved for personalised cancer vaccine therapies such as Nykode’s $715m licensing and collaboration agreement with Genentech/Roche for its Phase Ib vaccine. Personalised vaccines are often associated with complex treatment process logistics; however, UV1 is an off-the-shelf vaccine that can be offered to virtually all patients, providing a key differentiator in our view. Precedent deals also show the large pharma interest in cancer vaccines, in general.
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Research: Healthcare
As Medlab Clinical moves into 2023, the expected commencement of a Phase III trial for NanaBis (the company’s cannabinoid based analgesic therapy) in cancer-induced bone pain will be the focus for investors. Management made considerable progress towards Phase III in 2022, by switching to a purely synthetic cannabinoid formulation and gathering encouraging real-world data on NanaBis use. We believe these actions should maximise the potential for NanaBis in both a regulatory and a commercial setting. We note that successful progression of the company’s programmes will be contingent on Medlab’s ability to raise capital, given the short cash runway (funded into March 2023) and recent setback with the Nasdaq listing plans. We update our estimates to reflect the financing risk and macro uncertainty, resulting in our valuation decreasing to A$183.5m or A$80.4/share, from A$236.1m or A$103.5/share.
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