Ultimovacs — Phase II milestone as licensing potential nears

Ultimovacs (OSE: ULTI)

Currency in NOK

Last close As at 03/02/2023

NOK120.60

0.80 (0.67%)

Market capitalisation

NOK4,121m

Research: Healthcare

Ultimovacs — Phase II milestone as licensing potential nears

Ultimovacs has announced that patient enrolment has been completed (n=118) for the ongoing Phase II NIPU study investigating the company’s lead cancer vaccine candidate, UV1, in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), ipilimumab and nivolumab, in the treatment of patients with pleural mesothelioma. We see the successful patient enrolment for the trial as a positive indicator of Ultimovacs being on track to deliver top-line readouts from the study, which are expected in H123, representing one of the company’s most important near-term catalysts. Additionally, positive data readouts from the trial could, in our view, support potential licensing opportunities for Ultimovacs. We maintain our valuation at NOK7.9bn or NOK231 per share.

Soo Romanoff

Written by

Soo Romanoff

Managing Director - Head of Content, Healthcare

Healthcare

Ultimovacs

Phase II milestone as licensing potential nears

Clinical update

Pharma and biotech

23 January 2023

Price

NOK114

Market cap

NOK4bn

Net cash (NOKm) at end September 2022 (excluding leases of NOK1.8m)

461.9

Shares in issue

34.27m

Free float

56%

Code

ULTI

Primary exchange

Oslo Stock Exchange

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Ultimovacs is developing novel immunotherapies against cancer. Lead product candidate UV1 is a peptide-based vaccine against the universal cancer antigen telomerase (hTERT), which is expressed in c 85% of all cancer types. UV1 therefore has a broad potential in a variety of different settings and combinations.

Analysts

Soo Romanoff

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dr Adam McCarter

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Ultimovacs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Ultimovacs has announced that patient enrolment has been completed (n=118) for the ongoing Phase II NIPU study investigating the company’s lead cancer vaccine candidate, UV1, in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), ipilimumab and nivolumab, in the treatment of patients with pleural mesothelioma. We see the successful patient enrolment for the trial as a positive indicator of Ultimovacs being on track to deliver top-line readouts from the study, which are expected in H123, representing one of the company’s most important near-term catalysts. Additionally, positive data readouts from the trial could, in our view, support potential licensing opportunities for Ultimovacs. We maintain our valuation at NOK7.9bn or NOK231 per share.

Year

end

Revenue
(NOKm)

PBT*
(NOKm)

EPS*
(NOK)

DPS
(NOK)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/20

0.0

(120.6)

(3.98)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/21

0.0

(164.7)

(5.09)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/22e

0.0

(159.2)

(4.65)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/23e

0.0

(196.0)

(5.73)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT is reported, EPS is fully diluted.

As a reminder, the NIPU study is a randomised, multi-centre trial enrolling patients with malignant mesothelioma (n=118, two arms with 59 patients in each) who have disease progressed following first-line standard platinum-based doublet chemotherapy. Patients recruited in the trial must not have undergone previous treatment with ICIs (naïve). Individuals in each study arm will receive the ICI combination ipilimumab plus nivolumab and those in the experimental arm will, in addition, be given the UV1 vaccine. The objective of the study is to achieve a clinically meaningful progression-free survival in the second-line setting. Bristol Myers Squibb is supporting the study with the provision of its ICI therapies.

2023 is set to be a big year of readouts for Ultimovacs and its off-the-shelf, lead clinical asset, UV1. The cancer vaccine has already reported encouraging long-term survival data from a Phase I study in melanoma and Phase II top-line readouts across various solid tumour indications are expected throughout the year, with the NIPU data and the INITIUM study (in malignant melanoma) both expected in H123.

We believe positive readouts from these studies may also open up potential licensing opportunities for Ultimovacs. Significant licensing deals have been achieved for personalised cancer vaccine therapies such as Nykode’s $715m licensing and collaboration agreement with Genentech/Roche for its Phase Ib vaccine. Personalised vaccines are often associated with complex treatment process logistics; however, UV1 is an off-the-shelf vaccine that can be offered to virtually all patients, providing a key differentiator in our view. Precedent deals also show the large pharma interest in cancer vaccines, in general.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Ultimovacs and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Ultimovacs. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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60325 Frankfurt

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Ultimovacs and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Ultimovacs. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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