Oceania Natural — Update 1 August 2016

Oceania Natural — Update 1 August 2016

Oceania Natural

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Oceania Natural

Affirming FY17 sales target

Consumer goods

NXT Company Spotlight

1 August 2016

Price

NZ$2.45

Market cap

NZ$64m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

ONL

Listing

NXT

Shares in issue

26.2m

Business description

Oceania Natural is a producer, distributor and reseller of natural food and supplement products sourced from New Zealand and the Pacific Islands, sold predominantly into the People’s Republic of China. Its chief products are manuka honey and related products, Noni juice and dietary supplements.

Bull

Tapping into demand for clean NZ products.

Huge market potential in China.

Board has strong experience in consumer products companies.

Bear

Small player competing with large incumbents.

Supply constraints on manuka honey. production.

Key person risk.

Analysts

Finola Burke

+61 (0)2 9258 1161

Moira Daw

+61 (0)2 9258 1161

Oceania Natural (ONL) is an early-stage New Zealand company involved in producing and distributing natural food and diet supplements sourced from New Zealand and the Pacific Islands, and sold both domestically and in the People’s Republic of China. The company has reported Q117 key operating milestones (KOMs) and reaffirmed that it expects to achieve its FY17 sales target of NZ$5.38m.

Q117 key operating milestones

ONL delivered Q117 revenue of NZ$51,000, comprising direct sales of NZ$25,000 and distributor sales of NZ$26,000. It achieved a gross profit margin of 56%, well ahead of the full year KOM target of 40% and due to sales of its Noni juice products. The company noted that while revenue for the first quarter was low against the full year target, the ONL’s board believes the full year KOM targets were still reasonable and no adjustment was required. ONL has formed a new joint venture company, discussed below, which it believes will help it generate revenues more evenly throughout the year, as opposed to receiving volume sales through independent distributors.

ONL is targeting total revenue of NZ$5.38m in FY17, with NZ$1.38m from direct sales and NZ$4m from distributor sales. It is forecasting a gross margin of 40%, which equates to gross profit of NZ$2.15m. The company has also noted that the second half of the financial year is traditionally the busiest sales period. It noted that in the second quarter it would focus on tapping into the distributor networks controlled by the investors in its new Hong Kong joint venture, discussed below.

Funding to establish Hong Kong facility

ONL announced in mid-July that it had formed a new joint venture company, Oceania Natural Asia, in which it holds a 51% stake with the remaining 49% held by a number of Chinese and New Zealand investors, who collectively invested NZ$3.5m. The JV will serve as the holding company for ONL’s business operations in China and among the new investors brings exposure to many new distribution networks in China. One of the investors, for example, has access to 2,000 pharmacies throughout China.

Valuation: Market cap implies 19x EV/sales multiple

Since listing on the NXT on 31 March 2016, ONL’s shares have quadrupled in value. The current share price of NZ$2.45 implies an EV/sales multiple of 19x FY16 sales and 12x FY17e target sales. This is well ahead of the 2.2x median of its well-established listed peers (see Exhibit 2).

Historical performance

Year
end

Revenue
(NZ$000s)

EBITDA
(NZ$000s)

EBIT
(NZ$000s)

NPAT
(NZ$000s)

Net cash
(NZ$000s)

Net assets
(NZ$000s)

03/15

1,512

45

20

1

4

(65)

03/16

3,351

305

276

183

(736)

1,874

Source: Oceania Natural

Q117 key operating milestones

ONL delivered Q117 total revenue of NZ$51,000 and a gross margin of 56%. The company acknowledged that the Q1 sales were low relative to the FY17 KOM target of NZ$5.38m, comprising NZ$1.38m in direct sales and NZ$4.0m in distributor sales, and a gross margin of 40%, but reaffirmed these targets. It noted that the second half of the year is traditionally stronger due to Christmas, the Gregorian calendar new year, Chinese New Year and Valentine’s Day. Exhibit 1 sets out the Q117 actual KOMs and the FY17 KOM targets.

Exhibit 1: Key operating milestones

NZ$000s

Q117 actual

FY17 target

Total revenue

51

5,380

Direct sales

25

1,380

Distributor sales

26

4,000

Gross margin (%)

56

40

Source: Oceania Natural

Peer comparison

ONL’s listed peers are predominantly Australian and New Zealand honey and health products companies. All are well-established companies in more mature stages of their lifecycles.

As a consequence, the median EV/sales multiple of this group of 2.2x (Exhibit 2) is well below the EV/sales multiple implied by ONL’s current market capitalisation. With a market capitalisation of NZ$64m, the implied EV/sales multiple for FY16 is 19x while the implied FY17e EV/sales multiple is 12x target sales.

Exhibit 2: Peer comparison based on 12-month forward consensus and Edison forecasts

Company

Country

Currency

Price

Market cap
(m)

P/E
(x)

EV/sales
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

EBITDA margin (%)

Operating
margin (%)

Blackmores

Australia

A$

157.14

2,707

26.2

3.7

17.1

21.6

20.5

Capilano Honey

Australia

A$

20.53

194

18.2

1.4

12.3

11.8

10.5

Comvita

New Zealand

NZ$

11.27

451

22.4

2.3

13.2

17.7

14.4

Vitaco Holdings

Australia

A$

1.75

244

17.4

1.3

11.9

10.6

8.9

Natural and health products companies median

 

347

20.3

2.2

13.6

15.4

13.6

Source: Bloomberg, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices as at 29 July 2016.

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Future — Update 1 August 2016

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