Mitula Group
Written by
Mitula Group |
Greenlighting new revenue flows |
Trading update |
Media |
7 June 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Mitula Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Mitula Group (MUA) is a leading aggregator of online classified listings, operating in the global online advertising market. While MUA reports on a calendar year basis, it has reaffirmed its 30 June 2016 prospectus forecast for NPAT of A$10.1m. Our NPAT forecast for this period is within 1.2% of current guidance. More significantly, MUA has identified new revenue streams from its emerging markets that could lead to a medium-term revenue uplift not currently forecast.
Year end |
Revenue (A$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/15 |
20.6 |
7.5 |
3.0 |
0.0** |
32.7 |
N/A |
12/16e |
32.2 |
15.9 |
5.8 |
0.0 |
16.9 |
N/A |
12/17e |
42.8 |
21.6 |
7.8 |
0.0 |
12.6 |
N/A |
12/18e |
51.7 |
26.7 |
9.4 |
0.0 |
10.4 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Not reflecting €2.1m (A$2.9m) extraordinary dividend paid pre-IPO to shareholders in Mitula Classifieds, wholly owned by MUA.
Q3 results and prospectus forecast confirmed
MUA reported 26% q-o-q growth in March quarter revenues to A$6.7m, while q-o-q EBITDA increased 33% to A$3.3m to deliver a record EBITDA margin of 50%. The company has reaffirmed its prospectus guidance for NPAT of A$10.1m for the 12 months ending 30 June 2016, but trimmed its revenue and EBITDA guidance by 2.7% and 3.3% respectively. We note that our revenue forecast for the period (12 months to June 2016) is A$27.1m, slightly ahead of guidance for A$25.5m, but our EBITDA forecast of A$12.7m and NPAT forecast for A$10.2m are within 1.2% of guidance. We are not proposing earnings forecast changes at this point.
New revenue streams identified
MUA has identified several new revenue streams available in its less mature markets, which are categorised as Tier 2 markets. The company plans to launch, at negligible additional cost, a self-service capacity for smaller advertisers and allow end customers to advertise directly on Mitula’s websites. We estimate that a 15% increase in Tier 2 direct CPC revenue (which equates to a 5% increase in total direct CPC revenue) could increase our FY17 EPS by 4.5%, and, if sustained, increase our DCF valuation by 9.4% to A$1.63/share.
Valuation: Blended valuation is A$1.38/share
We use a blended valuation of DCF methodology and peer comparison to value MUA. Our DCF valuation uses a WACC 12.0%, a beta of 1.2 and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%, and arrives at a valuation (including in-the-money options) of A$1.49/share (previously A$1.40). The implied valuation, using the forward 12-month EV/EBITDA median of MUA’s listed peer group, is A$1.26/share. This was previously A$1.31/share, but has declined due to share price changes in the peer group. Consequently, our blended valuation is now A$1.38/share (previously A$1.36/share).
March quarter summary and trading update
Mitula Group reported a significant uplift in March quarter key performance indicators, which in turn delivered a near 33% increase in March quarter EBITDA. Exhibit 1 demonstrates the quarter-on-quarter growth in total visits across Mitula’s sites (20.3%) and splits out the visits generated by organic search and direct visits. The 35.7% q-o-q growth in direct visits highlights the traction that MUA’s brands are getting with consumers who are visiting the sites directly rather than via search engines. This also has translated into significant growth in email alert subscribers, which increased 56.3% q-o-q to 10 million by the end of March 2016. These subscribers give MUA the dual opportunity to develop a direct relationship with them with relevant email alerts and advertising, as well as to target brands and advertisers looking for such an audience.
While the click outs sold remained flat in terms of actual numbers (117.9m in March 2016 versus 116.9m in March 2015), the yield per click out increased 18.2% q-o-q. The company noted in its 17 March presentation that during the period from October 2014 to January 2016, up to 15% of click outs sold were sold as remnant inventory and were therefore extremely low yield. MUA has subsequently replaced these with higher-yielding customers, hence the rise in yield as show in Exhibit 1.
Exhibit 1: Traffic KPIs for March quarter 2016 vs March quarter 2015
March quarter 2016 |
March quarter 2015 |
% chg |
|
Total visits (m) |
192.4 |
160.0 |
20.3 |
Visits from organic search (m) |
129.9 |
117.6 |
10.4 |
% visits from organic search |
67.5% |
73.5% |
|
Direct visits (m) |
47.3 |
34.9 |
35.7 |
% Direct visits |
24.6% |
21.8% |
|
Email alert subscribers (m) |
10.0 |
6.4 |
56.3 |
Click outs (m) |
293.9 |
239.6 |
22.7 |
Click outs sold (m) |
117.9 |
116.9 |
0.8 |
% click outs sold |
40.1% |
48.8% |
|
Yield/click out sold |
3.9 |
3.3 |
18.2 |
Source: Mitula Group
MUA reported a 25.6% q-o-q lift in revenues for the March quarter and a 32.6% improvement in
q-o-q EBITDA to A$3.3m, as Exhibit 2 demonstrates. The company’s EBITDA margin hit a record of 50% in the quarter.
Exhibit 2: March quarter revenue and EBITDA performance
(A$m) |
March quarter 2016 |
March quarter 2015 |
% chg |
Revenue |
6.7 |
5.3 |
25.6 |
EBITDA |
3.3 |
2.5 |
32.6 |
EBITDA margin |
50.0% |
47.4% |
5.6 |
Source: Mitula Group
MUA reports on a calendar year basis, but it has also provided prospectus guidance for the 12 months to 30 June 2016. The nine-month performance of the group is shown in Exhibit 3, with EBITDA growth outpacing revenue growth. This, in our view, demonstrates the operating leverage the company is getting from its top-line growth.
Exhibit 3: Ytd performance for the nine months to March
(A$m) |
Nine months to March 2016 |
Nine months to March 2015 |
% chg |
Revenue |
18.3 |
14.0 |
30.9 |
EBITDA |
8.8 |
5.9 |
49.5 |
EBITDA margin (%) |
48.0% |
42.0% |
14.3 |
Source: Mitula Group
MUA has reiterated its prospectus forecast for A$10.1m NPAT for the 12 months to 30 June, but trimmed its revenue forecast by 2.7% to A$25.5m and its EBITDA forecast by 3.3% to A$12.9m.
In doing so, MUA has laid down a forecast of A$7.2m in revenue for the June 2016 quarter and EBITDA of A$4.1m for the same period. The company is anticipating it will deliver an EBITDA margin of 57% in the June quarter, as Exhibit 4 highlights.
Exhibit 4: June quarter forecasted revenue and EBITDA versus June quarter 2015
(A$m) |
June quarter 2016e |
June quarter 2015 |
% chg |
Revenue |
7.2 |
5.5 |
30.5 |
EBITDA |
4.1 |
2.3 |
75.8 |
EBITDA margin (%) |
57% |
42% |
34.7 |
Source: Mitula Group
Exhibit 5 sets out MUA’s new forecast for the 12 months to 30 June 2016 versus the same period in 2015 and our estimates. While our forecasts for revenue are a little higher than the company’s, our NPAT forecast is within 1.2%. We are not proposing changes to our forecasts at this point.
Exhibit 5: MUA’s forecast for the 12 months to 30 June 2016 vs Edison’s estimates
12 months ending 30 June |
MUA 2016e |
2015a |
% chg |
Edison 2016e |
% diff on MUA forecast |
Revenue |
25.5 |
18.9 |
35.0 |
27.1 |
6.1 |
EBITDA |
12.9 |
7.8 |
64.7 |
12.7 |
-1.1 |
NPAT |
10.1 |
5.9 |
73.1 |
10.2 |
1.2 |
Source: Mitula Group, Edison Investment Research
The following exhibit sets out MUA’s forecast for the first six months of fiscal 2016, which is on calendar year basis. As highlighted, our forecast for revenue for the same period is higher, but our EBITDA estimate is lower than the company’s.
Exhibit 6: MUA’s H116 forecast versus H115 and Edison H116e
Six months ending 30 June |
MUA H116e |
H115 |
% chg |
Edison H116e |
% diff on MUA forecast |
Revenue |
13.8 |
10.8 |
28.1 |
14.7 |
6.4 |
EBITDA |
7.4 |
4.9 |
53.3 |
6.9 |
-7.3 |
EBITDA margin (%) |
53.4% |
44.9% |
19.7 |
46.5% |
-12.9 |
Source: Mitula Group, Edison Investment Research
New revenue streams identified
MUA has identified additional opportunities to generate new revenue streams in its key Tier 1 and Tier 2 markets. The company has recognised that in its Tier 2 markets, which are emerging, high-growth markets where the structure is yet to be determined, it has not monetised the opportunity as well as it could. MUA has noted that in these markets a high number of clicks are unsold or sold at low yields. Exhibit 7 sets out MUA’s markets by tier, characteristic and performance.
Exhibit 7: Mitula Group market segmentation
Market characteristics |
Example countries |
% of visits |
% of clicks |
% of clicks sold |
% of CPC* revenue |
|
Tier 1 |
Mature vertical, defined market structure, major and minor players investing in traffic generation or rapid-growth emerging markets with major players investing heavily in traffic generation |
Mature: UK, Australia Emerging: Brazil, India |
47.9% |
44.8% |
66.4% |
77.6% |
Tier 2 |
Rapid growth high population with low but growing internet usage; market structure not yet determined |
Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia |
47.3% |
51.4% |
31.4% |
18.6% |
Tier 3 |
Small markets with clear structure but low population or very early stage markets without clear structure |
Mature: New Zealand, Netherlands Emerging: Pakistan, Nigeria |
4.8% |
3.8% |
2.2% |
3.8% |
Source: Mitula Group March Quarter 2016 Market Update presentation. Note: *Cost-per-click (CPC).
As Exhibit 7 shows, the Tier 2 countries are generating 31.4% of the clicks sold, but this is translating into only 18.6% of cost-per-click (CPC) revenue.
MUA has announced that in addition to its existing revenue streams from AdSense and direct CPC revenues, it would also launch self-service capacity for smaller portals and general classifieds sites to purchase “click packages” using credit cards and allow direct listings in its Tier 2 countries. The company also will target advertisers directly with advertising products designed to utilise its 10 million subscriber base.
Management is of the view that the click packages will give MUA access to smaller advertisers not currently being serviced by the direct sales team and will convert into increased clicks sold and yield per click. Direct listings and advertising products are both new revenue streams for the group. It is our view that the most immediate impact will come from the Tier 2 countries where there is an opportunity to significantly lift yield on the number of clicks sold by targeting smaller underserviced advertisers. We address the potential upside in the following scenario analysis.
Scenario analysis on new revenue focus
We have undertaken a scenario analysis on the impact on our FY17 forecasts and DCF valuation should MUA increase its CPC revenues in its Tier 2 countries. We have applied increases of 5%, 10% and 15% to the current Tier 2 CPC revenues, and this translated into increases of 1.5%, 3.5% and 5.0% in total CPC revenues.
Exhibit 8 sets out the three scenarios and demonstrates the potential upside on our current forecasts should the different rates of growth be achieved.
Exhibit 8: Scenario analysis on new Tier 2 revenue streams
A$m |
Current FY17 |
+1.5% CPC sales |
% upside on 1.5% lift |
+3.5% CPC sales |
% upside on 3.5% lift |
+5% CPC sales |
% upside on 5% lift |
Revenue |
42.8 |
43.1 |
0.8 |
43.5 |
1.8 |
43.9 |
2.6 |
Gross profit |
37.6 |
37.8 |
0.8 |
38.2 |
1.8 |
38.5 |
2.6 |
EBITDA |
20.8 |
21.1 |
1.4 |
21.5 |
3.3 |
21.8 |
4.7 |
NPAT |
15.3 |
15.5 |
1.4 |
15.8 |
3.3 |
16.0 |
4.8 |
EPS (c) |
7.7 |
7.9 |
1.4 |
8.0 |
3.2 |
8.1 |
4.5 |
DCF per share (A$) |
1.49 |
1.53 |
2.8 |
1.59 |
6.5 |
1.63 |
9.4 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Valuation
We have used a blend of DCF methodology and peer comparison to value MUA, arriving at A$1.38/share. In our initiation report of 29 March 2016, the blended valuation was A$1.36/share. The reduction is due a decline in the EV/EBITDA multiple that we arrive at using MUA’s listed peers. As Exhibit 9 demonstrates, at 25 May 2016, the median EV/EBITDA of the group was 17.8x (previously 18.6x).
Exhibit 9: Peer comparison
Company |
Country |
Currency |
Price |
Mkt cap m (local) |
Mkt cap (US$m) |
P/E (x) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
EBITDA margin (%) |
Operating margin (%) |
|
Mitula Group |
Australia |
A$ |
1.04 |
217 |
156 |
32.4 |
16.2 |
47.0 |
40.3 |
|
Next Co |
Japan |
JPY |
1,189.00 |
141,240 |
1,282 |
42.1 |
22.6 |
18.6 |
16.7 |
|
Recruit Holdings |
Japan |
JPY |
3,680.00 |
2,080,378 |
18,890 |
29.3 |
7.6 |
12.7 |
6.8 |
|
Axel Springer |
Germany |
€ |
50.36 |
5,434 |
6,055 |
20.2 |
11.2 |
16.8 |
13.2 |
|
Carsales |
Australia |
A$ |
12.45 |
3,002 |
2,155 |
27.5 |
18.6 |
50.1 |
48.0 |
|
eBay Classifieds Group |
US |
US$ |
23.46 |
26,953 |
26,953 |
11.8 |
6.8 |
41.3 |
34.2 |
|
Fairfax Media |
Australia |
A$ |
0.92 |
2,104 |
1,511 |
15.0 |
5.4 |
20.8 |
16.7 |
|
USA |
US$ |
717.25 |
487,642 |
487,642 |
19.1 |
10.1 |
56.0 |
46.8 |
||
Immobiliare |
Italy |
€ |
0.78 |
632 |
704 |
11.4 |
17.8 |
67.1 |
72.6 |
|
Naspers |
South Africa |
ZAR |
214,535 |
941,020 |
60,084 |
4,525.5 |
114.4 |
10.2 |
5.1 |
|
Seek |
Australia |
A$ |
15.68 |
5,401 |
3,878 |
30.4 |
14.9 |
39.2 |
32.5 |
|
REA Group |
Australia |
A$ |
54.84 |
7,223 |
5,187 |
32.7 |
20.8 |
56.0 |
51.0 |
|
Rightmove |
UK |
£ |
4,094.00 |
3,867 |
5,650 |
28.5 |
22.6 |
76.1 |
77.4 |
|
Schibsted |
Norway |
NOK |
249.40 |
57,690 |
6,907 |
57.2 |
31.8 |
11.1 |
8.6 |
|
Trade Me |
NZ/Australia |
NZ$ |
4.61 |
1,831 |
1,234 |
21.6 |
13.7 |
65.4 |
56.8 |
|
Zillow |
USA |
US$ |
27.76 |
5,003 |
5,003 |
57.5 |
23.2 |
25.0 |
8.5 |
|
Zoopla |
UK |
£ |
300.00 |
1,254 |
1,832 |
2,991.0 |
24.0 |
37.4 |
31.8 |
|
Classifieds and search companies |
|
Median |
5,002.9 |
28.5 |
17.8 |
39.2 |
32.5 |
|||
Source: Bloomberg. Note: *Prices at 25 May 2016.
We have applied the peer EBITDA multiple to our FY16 EBITDA forecasts and, after also subtracting a 10% discount for MUA’s relative size, we arrive at a peer comparison valuation of A$1.26/share (previously A$1.31).
Exhibit 10: Peer comparison valuation
Peer EBITDA multiple (x) |
17.8 |
FY16e EBITDA (A$m) |
15.4 |
EV based on comp (A$m) |
275.4 |
Subtract net debt or add cash (A$m) |
21.0 |
Total equity value (A$m) |
296.4 |
after 10% discount (A$m) |
266.8 |
Number of shares including options (m) |
211.6 |
Equity value/ share (A$) |
1.26 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Our DCF valuation uses a WACC of 12.0%, beta of 1.2 and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%, which we consider conservative given the high growth forecasted for the global paid search sector for the foreseeable future. As Exhibit 11 highlights, we arrive at an equity value of A$316m, which is at a ~44% premium to the company’s current market capitalisation. Our valuation per share of A$1.49 (previously A$1.40/share but subsequently rolled over for the March quarter) incorporates 2.8m in-the-money options, which have a November 2018 conversion date.
Exhibit 11: DCF valuation parameters
WACC |
12.0% |
Beta |
1.2 |
Terminal growth rate |
2.00% |
PV of cash flows (A$m) |
148.6 |
Terminal value (A$m) |
146.3 |
Net cash at 31 December 2015 |
-21.0 |
Equity value (A$m) |
315.9 |
Value per share (A$)* |
$1.49 |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *2.8m in-the-money options included in share count.
Exhibit 12: Financial summary
A$000s |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
2018e |
|||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
|
20,568 |
32,239 |
42,751 |
51,673 |
Cost of Sales |
(2,511) |
(3,918) |
(5,196) |
(6,280) |
|||
Gross Profit |
18,057 |
28,321 |
37,556 |
45,393 |
|||
EBITDA |
|
|
|
9,543 |
15,448 |
20,821 |
25,621 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
9,321 |
15,223 |
20,562 |
25,265 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(881) |
(1,080) |
(875) |
(709) |
|||
Exceptionals |
(1,424) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other |
(857) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Operating Profit |
6,158 |
14,143 |
19,687 |
24,556 |
|||
Net Interest |
(1,772) |
664 |
993 |
1,481 |
|||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
|
7,549 |
15,887 |
21,555 |
26,746 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
|
4,387 |
14,807 |
20,681 |
26,037 |
Tax |
(1,798) |
(3,850) |
(5,377) |
(6,770) |
|||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
5,751 |
12,037 |
16,178 |
19,976 |
|||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
2,589 |
10,957 |
15,304 |
19,267 |
|||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
189.2 |
208.8 |
208.8 |
211.6 |
|||
EPS - normalised (c ) |
|
|
|
3.04 |
5.76 |
7.75 |
9.44 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c ) |
|
|
3.02 |
5.69 |
7.65 |
9.44 |
|
EPS - (IFRS) (c ) |
|
|
|
1.37 |
5.25 |
7.33 |
9.10 |
Dividend per share (c ) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||
Gross Margin (%) |
87.8 |
87.8 |
87.8 |
87.8 |
|||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
46.4 |
47.9 |
48.7 |
49.6 |
|||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
45.3 |
47.2 |
48.1 |
48.9 |
|||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
|
11,748 |
15,878 |
15,601 |
15,389 |
Intangible Assets |
10,770 |
14,260 |
13,386 |
12,677 |
|||
Tangible Assets |
729 |
1,369 |
1,967 |
2,463 |
|||
Investments |
249 |
249 |
249 |
249 |
|||
Current Assets |
|
|
|
24,890 |
31,588 |
47,593 |
67,431 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Debtors |
3,885 |
2,167 |
2,874 |
3,473 |
|||
Cash |
21,003 |
29,419 |
44,717 |
63,956 |
|||
Other |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
|
(2,220) |
(1,991) |
(2,415) |
(2,774) |
Creditors |
(2,220) |
(1,991) |
(2,415) |
(2,774) |
|||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
|
(1,686) |
(1,686) |
(1,686) |
(1,686) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other long term liabilities |
(1,686) |
(1,686) |
(1,686) |
(1,686) |
|||
Net Assets |
|
|
|
32,732 |
43,789 |
59,093 |
78,360 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
|
8,797 |
16,937 |
20,538 |
25,381 |
Net Interest |
(1,772) |
664 |
993 |
1,481 |
|||
Tax |
(2,672) |
(3,850) |
(5,377) |
(6,770) |
|||
Capex inc R&D |
(654) |
(865) |
(857) |
(853) |
|||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(8,266) |
(4,470) |
0 |
0 |
|||
Financing |
23,744 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Dividends |
(2,896) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Net Cash Flow |
16,280 |
8,416 |
15,298 |
19,239 |
|||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
|
(4,197) |
(21,003) |
(29,419) |
(44,717) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other |
526 |
0 |
(0) |
0 |
|||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
|
(21,003) |
(29,419) |
(44,717) |
(63,956) |
Source: Mitula Group accounts, Edison Investment Research
|