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Research: Consumer
PPHE has again hit the spot with a “strong” Q3 (like-for-like RevPAR +9%, albeit currency-boosted), driven by Croatia and London. This is all the more encouraging as it is entirely rate-led, the peak trading period of Arena and proof of resilience in the capital despite a market slowdown. There is further reassurance in management’s confidence about Q4, given its significance and a demanding comparative. Development continues apace with openings and renovations on track and the company’s reassertion of its enhanced financial flexibility after the recent Waterloo sale.
Written by
PPHE Hotel Group |
Making the most of it |
Q3 update |
Travel & leisure |
6 November 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
PPHE Hotel Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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PPHE has again hit the spot with a “strong” Q3 (like-for-like RevPAR +9%, albeit currency-boosted), driven by Croatia and London. This is all the more encouraging as it is entirely rate-led, the peak trading period of Arena and proof of resilience in the capital despite a market slowdown. There is further reassurance in management’s confidence about Q4, given its significance and a demanding comparative. Development continues apace with openings and renovations on track and the company’s reassertion of its enhanced financial flexibility after the recent Waterloo sale.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
EV/EBITDA |
12/15 |
218.7 |
80.1 |
31.8 |
76.1 |
20.0 |
10.5 |
12/16 |
272.5 |
94.1 |
34.2 |
73.9 |
21.0** |
11.0 |
12/17e |
326.0 |
106.0 |
33.5 |
65.9 |
22.0 |
9.6 |
12/18e |
350.0 |
113.0 |
40.0 |
78.5 |
23.0 |
8.7 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, share-based payments. **Plus 100p special dividend.
PPHE is on course to meet current-year earnings expectations after Q3, notable for “strong trading” by key constituents, Croatia and London. In the absence of detailed regional breakdown, overall 10% higher like-for-like revenue reflects a record summer in Croatia (revenue +8%, per listed subsidiary Arena accounts, plus 6% currency). Apart from the growing popularity of main trading area, Pula, marked by new flight routes and sports and cultural activities, there has been clear pay-off from increased investment, particularly in online campsite booking systems (revenue +16%). As for London, adjusting for the flattering inclusion of the Riverbank extension, assumed low-digit RevPAR gain implies PPHE beats the market, as newly reported by STR (+2%), AccorHotels (+1%) and Millennium (-2%). However, management is typically prudent ahead of its strongest quarter. Concerns persist about room supply, which is set to rise above its long-term trend, and rising operating costs from the National Living Wage and imported inflation. GL, London's largest hotel owner/operator, recently confirmed “a cautious outlook.”
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