Norcros — Making good organic and acquisitive progress

Norcros (LSE: NXR)

Last close As at 22/05/2024

GBP2.20

2.00 (0.92%)

Market capitalisation

GBP198m

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

Norcros — Making good organic and acquisitive progress

FY19 ended in line with management’s expectations following a good H2 sales performance. Momentum here is to be supplemented by the post year-end acquisition of RAP Plumbing Supplies, which enhances earnings estimates by c 3%. Norcros is executing well against its strategy but the rating suggests that this is being overlooked by the market.

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Industrials

Norcros

Making good organic and acquisitive progress

FY19 year-end update

Construction & materials

26 April 2019

Price

202.5p

Market cap

£164m

ZAR18.5/£

Net debt (£m) at end March 2019

36

Shares in issue

80.2m

Free float

98%

Code

NXR

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

8.3

7.4

7.4

Rel (local)

4.3

(1.2)

6.9

52-week high/low

230p

186p

Business description

Norcros is a leading supplier of showers, enclosures and trays, tiles, taps and related fittings and accessories for bathrooms, kitchens, washrooms and other commercial environments. It has operations in the UK and South Africa, with some export activity from both countries.

Next event

FY19 results

12 June

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Norcros is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

FY19 ended in line with management’s expectations following a good H2 sales performance. Momentum here is to be supplemented by the post year-end acquisition of RAP Plumbing Supplies, which enhances earnings estimates by c 3%. Norcros is executing well against its strategy but the rating suggests that this is being overlooked by the market.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/17

271.2

20.7

24.4

7.2

8.3

3.6

03/18

300.1

24.4

26.8

7.8

7.6

3.9

03/19e

331.0

31.1

29.5

8.4

6.9

4.1

03/20e

355.2

34.0

32.0

9.0

6.3

4.4

Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and change in fair value of derivatives.

Solid close to FY19

Sales momentum in the UK and South Africa has been good in H2 leading to slightly better outturns than we had expected in both countries. In the UK (+13.6% actual, -0.2% LFL) Merlyn has implicitly achieved slightly higher revenue in H2 versus H1 while referencing ‘new listings’ back to the H1 results suggests that Abode also performed well in H2. The South African division (+3.7% actual, +7.5% in constant currency) saw underlying sales progress pick up slightly from already healthy H1 levels especially in the context of a sluggish local economy. With a degree of vertical integration, all three SA subsidiaries are likely to have contributed here. We note that group net debt ended the year slightly lower than we had previously modelled (ie £36m versus £40m); no further guidance was given on profitability and we have assumed in our adjusted FY19 estimates that the debt reduction was a working capital effect at this stage.

Earnings enhancing South African deal completes

We have increased our FY20 and FY21 earnings estimates by 3% following the post year end acquisition of RAP Plumbing Supplies (originally announced on 16 January) after the receipt of local regulatory clearances. This specialist plumbing products distributor increases the exposure to the trade channel, provides an additional potential outlet for other group products and complements Tile Africa’s retail presence. The initial c £9.7m consideration has been funded from cash generated by local operations and represents a c 5.2x EBITDA entry multiple.

Valuation: Delivering progress

The company’s share price is up c 7% and at the top end of its YTD trading range (though slightly lagging the FTSE All Share Index + c11%) after recently regaining December levels following a softer Q1. Overall, the rating is little changed from our last note and on a 6.9x P/E and 5.1x EV/EBITDA (adjusted for pensions cash) for the year that has just closed (or 6.3x and 4.7x, respectively, for FY20), management is still not being given the credit for the strategic progress and earnings development being delivered – with little assistance from underlying markets – in our view.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£'ms

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Revenue

 

 

200.3

210.7

218.7

222.1

235.9

271.2

300.1

331.0

355.2

365.3

Cost of Sales

 

 

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Gross Profit

 

 

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA

 

 

18.6

19.9

22.9

24.3

28.0

31.6

34.7

42.1

45.9

47.9

Operating Profit (before SBP)

 

 

12.3

13.7

17.0

18.3

22.5

25.2

28.3

35.3

38.9

40.7

Net Interest

 

 

(1.4)

(1.3)

(1.5)

(1.2)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(1.1)

(1.7)

(2.4)

(2.3)

Other financial - norm

 

 

(0.9)

(2.4)

(2.6)

(3.1)

(3.1)

(3.6)

(2.8)

(2.5)

(2.5)

(2.5)

Other financial

 

 

0.6

(0.2)

(5.2)

2.1

(0.2)

(4.2)

(4.5)

3.1

(1.2)

(1.2)

Intangible Amortisation

 

 

0.0

0.0

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.9)

(1.2)

(2.2)

(3.5)

(3.5)

(3.5)

Exceptionals

 

 

(1.2)

(4.4)

(1.5)

(4.8)

(2.0)

(3.8)

(4.2)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

10.0

10.0

12.9

14.0

18.5

20.7

24.4

31.1

34.0

35.9

Profit Before Tax (company norm)

 

10.7

11.7

14.6

15.8

20.4

22.9

26.3

32.7

35.6

37.5

Profit Before Tax (statutory)

 

 

9.4

5.4

5.8

11.0

15.4

11.5

13.5

29.7

28.3

30.2

Tax

 

 

0.0

0.2

4.3

(3.0)

(2.4)

(3.0)

(3.6)

(7.0)

(6.8)

(7.2)

Other

 

 

0.0

0.0

(1.4)

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

10.4

9.3

13.9

11.1

16.1

17.7

20.8

24.1

27.2

28.7

Profit After Tax (statutory)

 

 

9.4

5.6

8.7

8.1

13.0

8.5

9.9

22.7

21.5

23.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

57.7

58.0

58.4

59.2

60.6

61.1

68.0

80.5

81.2

81.9

Average Number of Shares Outstanding FD (m)

58.0

58.9

60.8

61.5

62.2

63.1

69.8

82.2

82.9

83.6

EPS FD - normalised (p)

 

 

17.9

15.8

22.8

18.0

24.7

24.4

26.8

29.5

32.0

33.5

EPS FD - company norm (p)

 

 

19.2

18.7

27.9

21.1

27.7

27.8

29.5

31.5

33.9

35.4

EPS - statutory (p)

 

 

16.2

9.5

14.3

13.2

19.7

9.8

11.2

27.8

25.1

26.7

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

4.2

4.6

5.1

5.6

6.6

7.2

7.8

8.4

9.0

9.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

 

9.3

9.4

10.5

10.9

11.9

11.7

11.6

12.7

12.9

13.1

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

6.1

6.5

7.8

8.2

9.5

9.3

9.4

10.7

10.9

11.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

80.0

86.7

80.0

78.3

93.4

98.8

147.9

139.4

148.9

152.6

Intangible Assets

 

 

23.4

27.6

27.1

26.9

44.7

44.8

98.9

94.9

97.4

96.3

Tangible Assets

 

 

44.8

43.5

36.9

37.6

38.2

43.0

45.0

43.8

50.8

55.6

Investments

 

 

11.8

15.6

16.0

13.8

10.5

11.0

4.0

0.7

0.7

0.7

Current Assets

 

 

89.7

104.6

102.2

100.4

119.4

165.3

165.1

180.8

195.4

204.4

Stocks

 

 

45.5

52.8

50.2

52.2

60.1

70.3

74.9

72.1

83.4

79.8

Debtors

 

 

34.5

36.3

48.1

42.6

53.4

57.5

64.4

69.3

76.0

75.2

Cash

 

 

2.9

6.8

3.9

5.6

5.9

37.5

25.8

39.4

36.0

49.4

Current Liabilities

 

 

(52.5)

(54.0)

(58.1)

(60.0)

(67.6)

(105.7)

(89.8)

(81.3)

(92.3)

(91.1)

Creditors

 

 

(52.1)

(53.5)

(57.3)

(58.6)

(64.8)

(74.8)

(81.3)

(81.3)

(92.3)

(91.1)

Short term borrowings

 

 

(0.4)

(0.5)

(0.8)

(1.4)

(2.8)

(30.9)

(8.5)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(46.1)

(75.7)

(58.6)

(67.4)

(97.6)

(101.8)

(118.6)

(108.2)

(106.7)

(105.3)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(20.3)

(37.0)

(30.5)

(18.4)

(35.6)

(29.8)

(64.4)

(75.5)

(75.5)

(75.5)

Other long term liabilities

 

 

(25.8)

(38.7)

(28.1)

(49.0)

(62.0)

(72.0)

(54.2)

(32.7)

(31.2)

(29.8)

Net Assets

 

 

71.1

61.6

65.5

51.3

47.6

56.6

104.6

130.7

145.2

160.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

6.0

6.6

13.6

16.2

18.5

25.5

23.5

37.4

34.8

44.6

Net Interest

 

 

(1.6)

(1.3)

(1.6)

(1.3)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(1.1)

(1.7)

(2.4)

(2.3)

Tax

 

 

(0.6)

(1.0)

(1.7)

(0.5)

(1.0)

(1.9)

(4.9)

(6.0)

(7.0)

(6.8)

Capex

 

 

(6.7)

(4.2)

(2.8)

(1.4)

(6.6)

(8.0)

(7.7)

(7.9)

(12.0)

(12.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

0.0

(10.6)

0.1

3.3

(23.6)

(2.7)

(59.1)

(2.0)

(9.7)

(2.4)

Financing

 

 

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

30.1

(1.1)

0.0

0.0

Dividends

 

 

(2.2)

(2.5)

(2.8)

(3.1)

(3.6)

(4.2)

(5.0)

(6.3)

(7.0)

(7.7)

Net Cash Flow

 

 

(4.9)

(12.7)

5.2

13.4

(17.1)

7.9

(24.2)

12.4

(3.4)

13.5

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

10.6

17.8

30.7

27.4

14.2

32.5

23.2

47.1

36.1

39.5

HP finance leases

 

 

(0.8)

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

 

 

(1.5)

(0.1)

(1.9)

(0.2)

(1.2)

1.4

0.3

(1.4)

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

17.8

30.7

27.4

14.2

32.5

23.2

47.1

36.1

39.5

26.1

Source: Company, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by Norcros and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Norcros. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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This report has been commissioned by Norcros and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Norcros. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

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The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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CASI Pharmaceuticals — CASI acquires an early stage CD38 mAb

CASI announced on 17 April 2019 that it had in-licensed the novel CD38 monoclonal antibody TSK011010 from Black Belt Therapeutics. The deal includes a €7m upfront (€5m cash and €2m equity investment) and undisclosed milestones and royalties. The drug is in the pre-IND stage but CASI noted that the IND-enabling studies are complete and it expects to submit IND/IMPD applications at the end of 2019 or early 2020.

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