Treatt — Looking ahead to a new level

Treatt (LSE: TET)

Last close As at 28/03/2024

420.00

2.00 (0.48%)

Market capitalisation

257m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

Treatt — Looking ahead to a new level

Treatt has once again posted a strong performance in FY21, delivering its ninth consecutive year of increased adjusted PBT. Healthier living remains an important driver of revenue and margin expansion, with group gross margins up an impressive 480bp during the year. Investment in the business continues, with the installation and commissioning of machinery at the new UK site expected by mid-2022, and the transfer of manufacturing equipment from the old facility to be completed by mid-2023. The total dividend per share was up 25% year-on-year to 7.5p.

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Consumer

Treatt

Looking ahead to a new level

FY21 results

Food & beverages

30 November 2021

Price

1,150p

Market cap

£691m

Net debt (£m) at 30 September

9.1

Shares in issue

60.1m

Free float

100%

Code

TET

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

1.4

1.4

64.7

Rel (local)

3.1

2.9

45.9

52-week high/low

1,240p

674p

Business description

Treatt provides innovative ingredient solutions from its manufacturing bases in Europe and North America, principally for the flavours and fragrance industries and multinational consumer goods companies, with particular emphasis on the beverage sector.

Next events

AGM

January 2022

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Treatt is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Treatt has once again posted a strong performance in FY21, delivering its ninth consecutive year of increased adjusted PBT. Healthier living remains an important driver of revenue and margin expansion, with group gross margins up an impressive 480bp during the year. Investment in the business continues, with the installation and commissioning of machinery at the new UK site expected by mid-2022, and the transfer of manufacturing equipment from the old facility to be completed by mid-2023. The total dividend per share was up 25% year-on-year to 7.5p.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

09/20

109.0

15.8

21.3

6.0

53.9

0.5

09/21

124.3

22.7

30.1

7.5

38.2

0.7

09/22e

131.8

24.1

32.2

8.0

35.7

0.7

09/23e

139.7

26.0

34.3

8.5

33.5

0.7

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

In the sweet spot

Treatt remains in the sweet spot as its portfolio is well-suited for the consumer trends of clean labels and more natural, better-for-you products. The return of the on-trade following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, coupled with an increase in new launches that were postponed from the height of the pandemic, has resulted in further growth, particularly in the tea category, which was up 113% in revenue terms. Its synthetic aroma business also grew as demand for sustainable synthetic products is increasing. FY21 revenues were £124.3m, 14% ahead of the prior year, and adjusted PBT was £20.9m on a company-normalised basis, up 41% on FY20.

Looking ahead with confidence

Treatt’s focus on value-added products continues to be a driver of margin expansion as the group moves away from commodity products. In terms of costs, increases in freight and logistics costs have not materially affected the group as it tends to transport concentrated product, hence logistics costs are less significant. Nevertheless, management has prudently built inventory to prevent any potential stresses in the supply chain. The significant increase in inventory, coupled with planned capital investment behind the new UK site, has resulted in a net cash outflow and the company moving to a net debt position of £9.1m at year end. We expect the business to be back in net cash by end FY22.

Valuation: Trading at a premium to peers

We note that the current share price is discounting medium-term sales growth of 4.5%, falling to 2.5% in perpetuity, with a WACC of 5.7% and a terminal EBIT margin of 20.0% (vs 17.2% in FY21). Our earnings estimates remain broadly unchanged following the announcement. Treatt trades at 35.7x FY22e P/E and 23.8x FY22e EV/EBITDA. On both P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, it trades at a c 15–20% premium to its peer group, though it trades in line with peers if we exclude those that are more exposed to lower-margin commoditised products.

FY21 results

Treatt’s FY21 revenues of £124.3m were in line with our expectations and the recent trading update. Company-adjusted PBT was £20.9m, ahead of our £20.4m estimate. Adjusted EPS (as defined by Treatt) were up 37% to 27.1p, a touch below our 27.3p forecast. Cash flow was weaker during FY21 as heavy capital investment continued into the new UK site as planned, and there was an £11.2m build-up of inventory. This was driven by three factors: growth of the business and strength of the order book; higher prices of orange oil; and proactive purchasing by the Treatt procurement team to protect customers and the business from the well-documented global supply chain issues. This resulted in an FY21 year-end net debt position of £9.1m (versus net cash of £0.4m at end FY20).

Treatt performed well across all its segments during FY21, with growth primarily driven by the healthier living categories. Tea revenue was up an impressive 113%, although part of this was due to demand last year being affected by pandemic-related closures, particularly in the hospitality space. The Health & Wellness segment was up 29% in revenue terms and built on prior strength, while the Fruit & Vegetables segment had one of its best years and grew revenues by 60%. The Herbs, Spices & Florals business grew by just 0.5%, with the slowdown ascribed to lower on-trade consumption. Citrus remains the largest product category, although revenues were down 1.2% owing to timing of deliveries and contract mix with some large customers. The legacy Aroma & HICs business was up 8.9%; while Treatt continues to shift its focus away from traded commodities and towards value-added solutions, the demand for sustainable synthetic products continues to increase.

Exhibit 1: Actual versus forecast key P&L metrics

FY21

Estimate

Actual

Difference

Revenue (£000s)

124,278

124,326

0.0%

Operating profit (£000s)*

20,436

21,346

4.5%

PBT (pre-exceptional) Treatt (£000s)*

20,417

20,919

2.5%

PBT (pre-exceptional) Edison (£000s)

21,701

22,745

4.8%

Basic EPS (pre-exceptional) Treatt (p)*

27.3

27.1

-0.9%

Basic EPS (pre-exceptional) Edison (p)

29.4

30.1

2.2%

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Stated on company normalised basis, which is pre-exceptional but after amortisation of acquired intangibles and share-based payments.

We have updated our forecasts in light of the FY21 results and illustrate the key changes in Exhibit 2 below.

Exhibit 2: Old versus new key P&L forecasts

FY22e

FY23e

Old

New

Diff

Old

New

Diff

Revenue (£000s)

131,735

131,786

0.0%

139,639

139,693

0.0%

Operating profit (£000s)*

22,057

22,034

-0.1%

23,800

23,775

-0.1%

PBT (pre-exceptional) Treatt (£000s)*

22,051

22,016

-0.2%

23,848

23,815

-0.1%

PBT (pre-exceptional) Edison (£000s)

23,546

24,076

2.3%

25,453

25,994

2.1%

Basic EPS (pre-exceptional) Treatt (p)*

29.5

28.8

-2.3%

31.9

30.7

-3.7%

Basic EPS (pre-exceptional) Edison (p)

32.0

32.2

0.8%

34.6

34.3

-0.7%

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Stated on company normalised basis, which is pre-exceptional but after amortisation of acquired intangibles and share-based payments.


Valuation

We illustrate Treatt’s relative valuation versus its ingredients peer group in Exhibit 3 below. For 2022, Treatt trades at a c 15–20% premium to its peer group on both a P/E and EV/EBITDA basis, though we note Kerry and Ingredion have a larger proportion of lower margin products in their portfolios. If we exclude Kerry and Ingredion, Treatt is trading broadly in line with the remaining peers on both P/E and EV/EBITDA. Although it is smaller than its peers, its portfolio of products is increasingly specialised and the company has demonstrated its resilience with a robust performance despite the COVID-19 pandemic.

Exhibit 3: Comparative valuation

Market cap
(m)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Dividend yield (%)

2021e

2022e

2021e

2022e

2021e

2022e

Givaudan

CHF 41,764

44.7

41.4

30.1

28.8

1.5

1.6

IFF

$36,800

25.7

23.2

19.6

17.2

2.0

2.2

Symrise

CHF 17,349

44.4

41.6

23.3

22.1

0.9

0.9

Chr Hansen

DKK 65,905

42.2

38.4

25.0

23.0

2.0

1.7

Kerry

€ 18,982

28.6

26.0

19.6

18.4

0.9

0.9

Ingredion

$6,428

14.0

13.1

8.7

8.2

3.0

2.7

Peer group average

33.3

30.6

21.1

19.6

1.7

1.7

Treatt

£691.4

38.2

35.7

27.8

23.8

0.7

0.7

Premium/(discount) to peer group (%)

14.9%

16.5%

31.8%

21.4%

(61.9%)

(58.4%)

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices as of 26 November 2021.


Exhibit 4: Financial summary

£000's

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022e

2023e

2024e

Year end September

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

112,163

112,717

109,016

124,326

131,786

139,693

148,074

Cost of Sales

(84,407)

(84,060)

(77,140)

(82,103)

(86,897)

(91,692)

(96,749)

Gross Profit

27,756

28,657

31,876

42,223

44,888

48,001

51,325

EBITDA

 

 

16,627

15,785

17,862

24,877

29,007

30,951

32,984

Operating Profit (before amort., except and sbp.)

 

 

15,108

14,226

16,053

23,172

24,093

25,954

27,955

Intangible Amortisation

(124)

(90)

(75)

(93)

(79)

(67)

(57)

Share based payments

(1,040)

(637)

(886)

(1,733)

(1,981)

(2,112)

(2,253)

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

13,944

13,499

15,092

21,346

22,034

23,775

25,646

Net Interest

(1,302)

(199)

(291)

(427)

(18)

40

92

Exceptionals

(1,105)

(755)

(1,060)

(1,302)

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

13,806

14,027

15,762

22,745

24,076

25,994

28,047

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

11,537

12,545

13,741

19,617

22,016

23,815

25,738

Profit Before Tax (company)

 

 

12,642

13,300

14,801

20,919

22,016

23,815

25,738

Tax

(2,284)

(2,673)

(2,896)

(4,469)

(4,703)

(5,358)

(6,048)

Profit After Tax (norm)

11,392

11,263

12,762

18,090

19,372

20,635

21,999

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

9,253

9,872

10,845

15,148

17,313

18,457

19,689

Discontinued operations

2,976

(1,084)

0

0

0

0

0

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

56.8

59.1

59.8

60.1

60.1

60.1

60.1

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

20.1

19.0

21.3

30.1

32.2

34.3

36.6

EPS - adjusted (p)

 

 

18.0

17.8

19.7

27.1

28.8

30.7

32.7

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

16.3

16.7

18.1

25.2

28.8

30.7

32.7

Dividend per share (p)

5.1

5.5

6.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.1

Gross Margin (%)

24.7

25.4

29.2

34.0

34.1

34.4

34.7

EBITDA Margin (%)

14.8

14.0

16.4

20.0

22.0

22.2

22.3

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

13.5

12.6

14.7

18.6

18.3

18.6

18.9

Operating Margin (%)

12.4

12.0

13.8

17.2

16.7

17.0

17.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

21,863

31,730

54,048

65,811

64,740

66,770

68,905

Intangible Assets

752

845

1,358

2,424

2,345

2,278

2,221

Tangible Assets

20,038

29,485

50,159

61,039

61,603

63,700

65,892

Investments

1,073

1,400

2,531

2,348

792

792

792

Current Assets

 

 

102,401

98,158

69,472

83,606

84,917

95,951

111,125

Stocks

39,642

36,799

36,050

47,263

49,835

52,546

55,403

Debtors

28,828

23,020

24,167

26,371

27,821

29,351

30,964

Cash

32,304

37,187

7,739

7,260

7,260

14,054

24,759

Other

1,627

1,152

1,516

2,712

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(35,781)

(28,905)

(15,989)

(30,460)

(22,794)

(21,157)

(21,642)

Creditors

(16,479)

(11,784)

(12,640)

(17,620)

(20,517)

(21,014)

(21,499)

Short term borrowings

(19,244)

(16,860)

(3,203)

(12,697)

(2,134)

0

0

Provisions

(58)

(261)

(146)

(143)

(143)

(143)

(143)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(6,858)

(13,876)

(16,411)

(11,605)

(11,048)

(9,981)

(9,981)

Long term borrowings

(3,001)

(4,369)

(3,450)

(2,624)

(1,067)

0

0

Other long-term liabilities

(3,857)

(9,507)

(12,961)

(8,981)

(9,981)

(9,981)

(9,981)

Net Assets

 

 

81,625

87,107

91,120

107,352

115,815

131,583

148,407

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

3,580

20,544

15,677

13,892

27,881

27,208

29,000

Net Interest

(609)

(199)

(191)

(270)

(18)

40

92

Tax

(2,978)

(2,208)

(2,191)

(4,874)

(4,703)

(5,358)

(6,048)

Capex

(6,190)

(10,392)

(23,909)

(13,195)

(5,477)

(7,095)

(7,221)

Acquisitions/disposals

8,357

855

(1,041)

(1,178)

0

0

0

Financing

21,090

622

(69)

(212)

0

0

0

Dividends

(2,876)

(3,080)

(3,378)

(3,704)

(4,509)

(4,800)

(5,117)

Net Cash Flow

20,374

6,142

(15,102)

(9,541)

13,174

9,994

10,705

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

10,225

(10,059)

(15,958)

(427)

9,114

(4,060)

(14,054)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(90)

(243)

(429)

(0)

0

0

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10,059)

(15,958)

(427)

9,114

(4,060)

(14,054)

(24,759)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Treatt and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Treatt. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Treatt and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Treatt. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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NB Private Equity Partners — Strong NAV contribution from exits

NB Private Equity Partners (NBPE) continues its strong performance driven by exits and valuation uplifts in existing portfolio holdings. In the 12 months ending October 2021, it delivered a NAV total return of 57.8% in US dollar terms, with 5.4pp from the recent IPO of the warehouse automation business AutoStore. The performance was also supported by growth in the remaining portfolio companies. The realisations have left NBPE with increased dry powder, while the investment level remained within the target range. Despite the strong returns and a one-layer fee structure, NBPE trades at a wide discount (21% versus the peer average of 14%).

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