Cereno Scientific — Improved liquidity with latest debt financing

Cereno Scientific (OMX: CRNO-B)

Last close As at 20/06/2025

SEK10.18

0.58 (6.04%)

Market capitalisation

SEK2,861m

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Research: Healthcare

Cereno Scientific — Improved liquidity with latest debt financing

Cereno Scientific has bolstered its liquidity position through a SEK25m loan facility secured from new Danish investors Venusat and SAJ Finans. Concurrently, the company executed an addendum to its November 2024 financing agreement with Fenja Capital and Arena Investors, enabling early access to the SEK50m conditional second tranche, previously contingent on regulatory and financial milestones related to CS1. Additionally, management confirmed that SEK25m of the SEK75m convertible debt from the original facility has been converted into equity, a move we view as positive given the expected reduction in interest expenses and overall debt burden. While we will incorporate revised forecasts in future updates, we note that the SEK50m tranche was already included in our FY25 projections. As a result, our cash runway estimate shifts only modestly, into Q226 from Q126 previously, closer to upcoming regulatory and clinical milestones related to CS1 and CS014, the company’s two potentially disease-modifying HDAC inhibitors.

Jyoti Prakash

Written by

Jyoti Prakash, CFA

Director, healthcare

Healthcare

Financing update

23 June 2025

Price SEK10.18
Market cap SEK2,877m

Net cash/(debt) at 31 March 2025

SEK(103.4)m

Shares in issue

281.0m
Free float 93.0%
Code CRNO B
Primary exchange NGM
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance

Business description

Cereno Scientific is a clinical-stage biotech based in Sweden, focused on the development of innovative, effective and safe treatments for indications with high unmet needs. Lead asset CS1 is an HDAC inhibitor that acts as an epigenetic modulator. Cereno reported positive top-line results from the Phase IIa study in pulmonary arterial hypertension in September 2024. Second asset CS014, a proprietary NCE and HDACi, is being developed for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and preclinical asset CS585 is likely to target rare thrombosis-related indications.

Analysts

Jyoti Prakash, CFA
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Arron Aatkar, PhD
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Cereno Scientific is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Year end Revenue (SEKm) PBT (SEKm) EPS (SEK) DPS (SEK) P/E (x) Yield (%)
12/23 0.0 (46.4) (0.20) 0.00 N/A N/A
12/24 0.0 (98.1) (0.35) 0.00 N/A N/A
12/25e 0.0 (94.8) (0.34) 0.00 N/A N/A
12/26e 0.0 (83.4) (0.30) 0.00 N/A N/A

The latest financing comprises two separate agreements – a new SEK25bn debt issue and an amendment to the existing November 2024 facility, bringing forward the receipt of the second SEK50m tranche. As a reminder, the original facility included a cash loan of SEK175m across two tranches and SEK75m in convertible debt. While the first cash tranche of SEK125m and the SEK75m convertible debt (total SEK200m) was made available to Cereno immediately, the pending SEK50m payout was conditional on CS1 receiving FDA approval for the next clinical phase as well as certain other financial conditions. As per our understanding, it is this second tranche that has now been advanced to the company, as part of the addendum. We remind readers that our model was already reflecting this receipt in FY25, in anticipation of a regulatory nod for the CS1 Phase IIb programme in H224. Note that the new and revised loan agreements are subject to a set-up fee of c SEK3.1m and an interest charge of STIBOR plus 11%. All tranches will be due for repayment on 30 April 2026, unless terms are modified prior to that. Following the SEK25m conversion (against an issue of 4.1m series B shares at SEK6.09 per share, 1.43% of the outstanding share capital), the convertibles outstanding are reduced to SEK50m.

Given that our estimates already incorporated receipt of the SEK50m tranche, the new fund inflow results in a modest increase in our estimated cash runway, into Q226 versus Q126 previously. We believe this will further de-risk the company’s clinical progression efforts for CS1 and CS014 (to Phase IIb and Phase II trials, planned for H126). Cereno also expects these funds to help progress the Expanded Access Program and the Fluidda sub-study, as well as accelerate business development, including potential partnership discussions. We will provide updated estimates and valuation (reflecting these recent developments) in due course.

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