Immix Biopharma — Progressing as expected on all fronts

Immix Biopharma (NASDAQ: IMMX)

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Research: Healthcare

Immix Biopharma — Progressing as expected on all fronts

Immix reported Q223 results, which were largely as expected. Operational highlights included rolling positive newsflow for CAR-T therapy NXC-201 and interim results for IMX-110 in colorectal cancer patients. With the ramp-up in clinical activity, mainly the NEXICART-1 trial, as well as the two ongoing Phase Ib/IIa trials for IMX-110, management reported R&D expenses of $2.2m, notably higher than $0.6m in the previous year. At end June 2023, cash was $12.7m, supported by a $5m (gross) at-the-market fund-raise in H123. Based on our estimated cash burn, we continue to forecast an operating cash runway into Q224, consistent with management guidance. As we update our FY23 and FY24 expense estimates based on the H123 run rate, roll forward our model and update the net cash figure, our valuation adjusts to $81.1m versus $83.3m previously.

Soo Romanoff

Written by

Soo Romanoff

Managing Director - Head of Content, Healthcare

Healthcare

Immix Biopharma

Progressing as expected on all fronts

Q223 results

Pharma and biotech

18 August 2023

Price

US$1.63

Market cap

US$27m

Net cash (US$m) at 30 June 2023

12.7

Shares in issue

16.3m

Free float

42%

Code

IMMX

Primary exchange

Nasdaq

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(24.2)

(7.9)

(28.2)

Rel (local)

(21.5)

(12.4)

(29.8)

52-week high/low

US$3.14

US$0.75

Business description

Immix Biopharma is developing a new class of tissue-specific therapeutics targeting oncology and immune-dysregulated disease. Lead asset IMX-110 is being investigated in a Phase Ib/IIa study for the treatment of soft tissue sarcoma and a Phase Ib/IIa trial for solid tumors in combination with tislelizumab. Immix’s subsidiary Nexcella (94% owned) is also developing a CAR-T therapy, NXC-201, which is in the NEXICART-1 study for the treatment of multiple myeloma and AL amyloidosis.

Next events

NEXICART-1 (NXC-201) 50-patient ongoing data

H223

Phase Ib/IIa (IMX-110) rolling data

H223

Analysts

Soo Romanoff

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dr Arron Aatkar

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Nidhi Singh

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Immix Biopharma is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Immix reported Q223 results, which were largely as expected. Operational highlights included rolling positive newsflow for CAR-T therapy NXC-201 and interim results for IMX-110 in colorectal cancer patients. With the ramp-up in clinical activity, mainly the NEXICART-1 trial, as well as the two ongoing Phase Ib/IIa trials for IMX-110, management reported R&D expenses of $2.2m, notably higher than $0.6m in the previous year. At end June 2023, cash was $12.7m, supported by a $5m (gross) at-the-market fund-raise in H123. Based on our estimated cash burn, we continue to forecast an operating cash runway into Q224, consistent with management guidance. As we update our FY23 and FY24 expense estimates based on the H123 run rate, roll forward our model and update the net cash figure, our valuation adjusts to $81.1m versus $83.3m previously.

Year
end

Revenue
(US$m)

PBT*
(US$m)

EPS*
(US$)

DPS
(US$)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/21

0.0

(1.31)

(0.36)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/22

0.0

(7.70)

(0.55)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/23e

0.0

(12.26)

(0.84)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/24e

0.0

(15.83)

(0.97)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalized, excluding amortization of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Multiple encouraging trial readouts for key assets

Immix’s strategic priority remains NXC-201 for multiple myeloma (MM) and amyloid light chain amyloidosis (ALA). In the ongoing NEXICART-1 trial by majority-owned subsidiary Nexcella, positive data were reported from 58 patients, with an overall response rate of 92% for MM and 100% for ALA patients. After a pre-IND meeting, management expects its next step to be the submission of an IND application to the FDA and believes that NEXICART-1 could serve as a registrational study once 100 patients are enrolled, provided the results continue to be supportive. Updated data are expected in September. Immix recently published encouraging interim results from its Phase Ib/IIa IMMINENT-01 trial assessing IMX-110 in combination with tislelizumab for the treatment of solid tumors. IMX-110 is also being investigated in a Phase Ib/IIa trial for the treatment of soft tissue sarcoma, with top-line readouts for both trials involving IMX-110 anticipated by end FY24.

Cash runway into Q224

Immix reported net cash of $12.7m at end Q223. Based on our operating cash burn expectations for H223 and FY24, we anticipate a runway into Q224. We estimate that Immix will need to raise c $20m to fund operations into FY25, at which point we assume it will secure a full global licensing deal for IMX-110. The company entered into an at-the-market (ATM) agreement in July to sell shares up to $4.2m. If fully exercised, this might extend its runway further.

Valuation: $81.1m or $5.0 per share

As we roll forward our model, revise our operating expense estimates for FY23 and FY24 and update net cash, our total valuation for Immix adjusts to $81.1m or $5.0/share (from $83.3m or $5.5/share). The per-share valuation incorporates an increased number of shares outstanding (16.3m versus 15.0m previously).

Financials and valuation

During Q223, cash outflow from operating activities was higher at $3.5m compared to $0.5m in Q222, as increased clinical activities and higher general and administrative (G&A) expenses translated into an increased operating loss of $3.7m in Q223 (versus $1.6m in Q222). R&D expenses increased to $2.2m in Q223 from $0.6m in Q222, mainly due to clinical costs associated with its ongoing clinical trials (ie the NEXICART-1 clinical trial for CAR-T therapy NXC-201 and Phase Ib/IIa clinical trials for IMX-110). As a reminder, Immix is investigating IMX-110 in a Phase Ib/IIa study for soft tissue sarcoma and a Phase Ib/IIa trial in advanced solid tumors. The NEXICART-1 trial is a Phase Ib/IIa open-label study to investigate the safety and efficacy of NXC-201, a B-cell maturation antigen targeting CAR-T therapy, in adults with relapsed or refractory MM and ALA. The clinical development of NXC-201 is being independently financed by Immix’s subsidiary, Nexcella (of which Immix owns 94%). G&A expenses were also up at $1.5m in Q223 (from $1.0m in Q222), led by increased payroll costs and stock-based compensation.

Incorporating the higher run rate of operating expenses in H123, we have adjusted our estimates for R&D and G&A expenses for FY23 and FY24. Our revised forecasts for R&D expenses increase to $6.9m in FY23 (from $6.1m previously) and to $9.8m (from $9.5m) in FY24. Based on higher than anticipated G&A expenses in H123, our FY23 and FY24 forecasts increase to $5.7m and $6.4m, respectively, versus $4.8m and $4.9m previously. These changes in operating expenses translate into higher operating losses of $12.7m and $16.2m (versus $10.9m and $14.4m previously) in FY23 and FY24. Our revised net loss estimates are $12.7m in FY23 and $16.2m in FY24, versus $10.9m and $14.4m, previously.

As we incorporate the above-mentioned changes, roll forward our model and update the net cash figure to $12.7m (versus $11.5m at end March 2023), we adjust our valuation for Immix to $81.1m from $83.3m previously. We adjust our per-share valuation to $5.0 per share versus $5.5m previously, reflecting the increased number of shares outstanding (16.3m versus 15.0m previously).

Immix ended the quarter with a cash balance of $12.7m, which was primarily supported by the $4.8m fund-raise (net proceeds) through an ATM offering in H123 (see our previous note for full details of the $5m ATM offering). Based on our cash burn projections for FY23 and FY24, we continue to estimate an operating cash runway into Q224, which is in line with management expectations. We maintain that Immix will need to raise $20m in FY24 before we expect it to secure a global licensing deal in FY25, which is accounted for as illustrative debt in our model. Alternatively, if the funding is instead realized through an equity issue (assumed at the current trading price of $1.63/share), Immix would have to issue 10.5m shares, resulting in our per-share valuation decreasing to $3.8 from $5.0 currently (the number of shares outstanding would increase from 16.3m to 26.8m). In an effort to extend the cash runway further, Immix entered into a July ATM sales agreement to sell common shares worth up to $4.2m deemed to be an ATM offering. As of 10 August 2023, the company reported that it had sold 25k shares under the agreement, providing cash proceeds of $51.3k.

Exhibit 1: Immix Biopharma rNPV

Product

Indication

Launch

Peak

Peak sales
(US$m)

Value
(US$m)

Probability

rNPV
(US$m)

rNPV/share (US$)

IMX-110

STS

2028

2033

455.1

191.5

15.0%

29.7

1.8

IMX-110

Solid tumors

2029

2035

474.5

185.2

10.0%

12.6

0.8

NXC-201

Multiple myeloma and AL amyloidosis

2030

2035

246.0*

134.6**

17.5%

18.9

1.2

NXC-201

AL amyloidosis

2030

2035

143.7

76.5**

17.5%

7.2

0.4

Net cash on 30 June 2023

 

 

 

12.7

100%

12.7

0.78

Valuation

 

 

 

600.5

 

81.1

5.0

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Assumed licensing milestone payment value and overall deal value higher for NXC-201 than IMX-110. We have modelled a deal value of $210m for IMX-110 versus $450m for NXC-201. **Weighted by Immix’s 94% ownership of the asset in Nexcella.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

Accounts: IFRS, year-end: 31 December, US$’000s

 

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

0

0

0

0

Cost of sales

 

0

0

0

0

Gross profit

 

0

0

0

0

Total operating expenses

 

(1,352)

(8,219)

(12,660)

(16,225)

Research and development expenses

 

(127)

(4,196)

(6,933)

(9,783)

SG&A

 

(1,225)

(4,023)

(5,728)

(6,442)

EBITDA (normalized)

 

(1,350)

(8,217)

(12,659)

(16,223)

Operating income (reported)

 

(1,352)

(8,219)

(12,660)

(16,225)

Finance income/(expense)

 

(180)

(0)

0

0

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

(22,846)

0

0

0

Profit before tax (reported)

 

(24,378)

(8,219)

(12,660)

(16,225)

Profit before tax (normalized)

 

(1,313)

(7,695)

(12,260)

(15,825)

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

(6)

(10)

(14)

(18)

Net income (reported)

 

(24,384)

(8,230)

(12,675)

(16,244)

Net income (normalized)

 

(1,319)

(7,706)

(12,275)

(15,844)

Basic average number of shares, m

 

3.7

13.9

14.6

16.3

Basic EPS (US$)

 

(6.64)

(0.59)

(0.87)

(1.00)

Adjusted EPS (US$)

 

(0.36)

(0.55)

(0.84)

(0.97)

Dividend per share (US$)

 

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

6

4

4

4

Other non-current assets

 

0

7

183

183

Total non-current assets

 

6

10

186

187

Cash and equivalents

 

17,644

13,437

7,105

11,261

Current tax receivables

 

26

256

297

297

Trade and other receivables

 

0

0

2

3

Other current assets

 

516

1,205

1,205

1,205

Total current assets

 

18,186

14,898

8,609

12,766

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

0

0

0

0

Non-current lease liabilities

 

0

0

0

0

Other non-current liabilities

 

0

475

0

0

Illustrative debt

 

0

0

0

20,000

Total non-current liabilities

 

0

475

0

20,000

Accounts payable

 

143

1,273

2,396

2,396

Current lease obligations

 

0

0

2

3

Other current liabilities

 

59

0

0

0

Total current liabilities

 

202

1,273

2,398

2,399

Equity attributable to company

 

17,990

13,160

6,398

(9,446)

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

Net Income

 

(24,384)

(8,230)

(12,675)

(16,244)

Depreciation and amortization

 

2

2

2

2

Share based payments

 

219

524

400

400

Other adjustments

 

22,964

100

0

0

Movements in working capital

 

(391)

195

1,081

0

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

(1,589)

(7,408)

(11,192)

(15,842)

Capex

 

(1)

0

(2)

(2)

Acquisitions & disposals net

 

0

0

0

0

Other investing activities

 

0

0

0

0

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

 

(1)

0

(2)

(2)

Capital changes

 

18,849

2,914

4,863

0

Debt Changes

 

0

0

0

20,000

Other financing activities

 

0

318

(1)

20,000

Cash from financing activities (CFF)

 

18,849

3,232

4,862

40,000

Cash and equivalents at beginning of period

 

391

17,644

13,437

7,105

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

17,259

(4,176)

(6,332)

24,156

Effect of FX on cash and equivalents

 

(5)

(32)

0

0

Cash and equivalents at end of period

 

17,644

13,437

7,105

31,261

Net (debt)/cash

 

17,644

13,437

7,105

(8,739)

Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Immix Biopharma and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Immix Biopharma. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

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United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

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London │ New York │ Frankfurt

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London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Immix Biopharma and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Immix Biopharma. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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