Hogg Robinson Group
Hogg Robinson Group |
Tried and tested |
IMS |
Support services |
1 August 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Hogg Robinson Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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IMS confirmation of Q1 trading resilience is backed up by reassurance that Hogg Robinson (HRG) is in good shape to weather potential Brexit uncertainty. Strong finances, a fast-developing Fraedom technology business and increasing benefits from corporate restructuring should mitigate market pressures, while in a downturn HRG has been seen to benefit from a corporate desire to use professionals to cut travel costs. We reiterate that low net debt (FY17e net debt/EBITDA of just 0.5x) allows for profitable investment and returns to shareholders.
Year |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
03/15 |
330.1 |
30.5 |
6.6 |
2.32 |
9.8 |
3.4 |
03/16 |
318.3 |
32.2 |
7.2 |
2.51 |
9.0 |
3.8 |
03/17e |
326.0 |
34.0 |
7.3 |
2.65 |
8.9 |
4.1 |
03/18e |
321.0 |
34.5 |
7.4 |
2.80 |
8.9 |
4.3 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
More of the same in Q117
HRG is on course to meet market expectations for the current year after an opening quarter to June much in the vein of H216, ie relatively subdued travel management (revenue -3% in constant currency) offset by Fraedom’s buoyancy. While our full-year PBT forecast is unchanged, it now assumes greater caution in travel management, given a broadly similar outlook, compounded by possible Brexit softening, of which there are very early signs. We look now for divisional revenue to continue to decline at that rate but at maintained margin, thanks to effective cost control in FY16 and guidance of £8m further savings from reorganisation. Favourable currency movements should make good the consequent profit shortfall. We remain confident that Fraedom will deliver c 20% trading profit growth.
Fraedom to surprise?
Our newly introduced forecasts for FY18 closely reflect the aforementioned trading pattern, albeit without the significant currency benefit in FY17e. We believe that the joker in the pack is HRG’s enhanced financial flexibility (we forecast net debt at end March 2018 of merely 0.3x EBITDA), which would allow a material expansion of the technology offering, already the driver of HRG’s growth.
Valuation: Strong cash flow underrated
Continuing evidence that travel management, HRG’s principal activity, remains under pressure highlights the challenge it faces adjusting to a changing market. While this is being resolved, investor caution is reasonable. However, the FY17e P/E rating is low (under 9x) compared with that of the FTAS UK Support Services sector (c 14x) and the company is only modestly indebted, highly cash-generative and committed to a progressive dividend (+8% y-o-y and 2.9x income cover in FY16).
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£'000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year-end March |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
330,100 |
318,300 |
326,000 |
321,000 |
EBITDA |
|
|
53,400 |
55,500 |
57,500 |
58,000 |
Operating Profit (before GW and except) |
|
|
42,500 |
44,800 |
46,500 |
47,000 |
Exceptional Items |
(6,300) |
(4,800) |
(2,000) |
(2,000) |
||
Amortisation of Acquired Intangibles |
(1,000) |
(700) |
(1,000) |
(1,000) |
||
Associates/JVs |
1,100 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
||
Operating Profit |
36,300 |
40,300 |
44,500 |
45,000 |
||
Net Interest |
(13,100) |
(13,600) |
(13,500) |
(13,500) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
30,500 |
32,200 |
34,000 |
34,500 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
23,200 |
26,700 |
31,000 |
31,500 |
Tax |
(7,500) |
(7,400) |
(7,800) |
(8,000) |
||
Adjustment to tax for normalised earnings |
(800) |
(1,000) |
(1,700) |
(1,700) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
23,000 |
24,800 |
26,200 |
26,500 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
15,700 |
19,300 |
23,200 |
23,500 |
||
Minority charge |
(1,000) |
(600) |
(600) |
(600) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
322.7 |
324.2 |
325.4 |
325.4 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
6.57 |
7.16 |
7.34 |
7.44 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
4.56 |
5.77 |
6.95 |
7.04 |
Dividend per share (p) |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
16.2 |
17.4 |
17.6 |
18.1 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
12.9 |
14.1 |
14.3 |
14.6 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
304,500 |
305,400 |
305,000 |
303,000 |
Intangible Assets |
236,800 |
242,100 |
240,000 |
238,000 |
||
Tangible Assets |
9,800 |
8,800 |
9,000 |
9,000 |
||
Investments |
57,900 |
54,500 |
56,000 |
56,000 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
145,800 |
139,000 |
146,000 |
154,000 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
105,500 |
93,300 |
96,000 |
99,000 |
||
Cash |
38,400 |
43,800 |
48,000 |
53,000 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(167,700) |
(159,500) |
(165,000) |
(188,000) |
Creditors |
(167,600) |
(149,500) |
(150,000) |
(148,000) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(100) |
(10,000) |
(15,000) |
(40,000) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(355,400) |
(334,800) |
(322,000) |
(291,000) |
Long term borrowings |
(93,000) |
(67,400) |
(60,000) |
(30,000) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(262,400) |
(267,400) |
(262,000) |
(261,000) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
(72,800) |
(49,900) |
(36,000) |
(22,000) |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
39,900 |
48,100 |
42,500 |
42,000 |
Net Interest |
(4,300) |
(4,200) |
(4,000) |
(3,700) |
||
Tax |
(4,000) |
(5,400) |
(9,000) |
(6,000) |
||
Capex |
(11,300) |
(8,300) |
(12,000) |
(12,000) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
(2,600) |
(1,400) |
(2,600) |
(1,600) |
||
Dividends |
(7,100) |
(7,700) |
(8,300) |
(8,700) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
10,600 |
21,100 |
6,600 |
10,000 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
65,300 |
54,700 |
33,600 |
27,000 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
54,700 |
33,600 |
27,000 |
17,000 |
|
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research |
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