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Last close As at 08/06/2023
GBP0.94
▲ −0.50 (−0.53%)
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GBP157m
Research: TMT
The Pebble Group’s AGM statement outlines first-half trading likely to be up on the same period in FY22, with both of the group’s constituent businesses performing well. Facilisgroup, serving the US promotional product distribution market, is extending its offering and building market share in the substantial North American market. Brand Addition, which provides promotional products and associated services to major global brands, benefits from strong relationships built on trust, and is reported to have ‘robust’ order intake year-to-date. Our forecasts are unchanged for now and the valuation remains below peers.
The Pebble Group |
H123 trading ahead of prior year |
AGM statement |
Media |
23 May 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
The Pebble Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
The Pebble Group’s AGM statement outlines first-half trading likely to be up on the same period in FY22, with both of the group’s constituent businesses performing well. Facilisgroup, serving the US promotional product distribution market, is extending its offering and building market share in the substantial North American market. Brand Addition, which provides promotional products and associated services to major global brands, benefits from strong relationships built on trust, and is reported to have ‘robust’ order intake year-to-date. Our forecasts are unchanged for now and the valuation remains below peers.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/21 |
115.1 |
10.9 |
5.1 |
0.0 |
19.6 |
N/A |
12/22 |
134.0 |
12.4 |
5.8 |
0.6 |
17.4 |
0.6 |
12/23e |
143.0 |
12.9 |
5.8 |
1.3 |
17.4 |
1.3 |
12/24e |
148.0 |
14.0 |
6.3 |
1.9 |
16.1 |
1.9 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Progress on both fronts
Facilisgroup has been building on the success of its initial proposition, Syncore, where gross merchandise value and preferred supplier purchases have made progress so far in H123. Commercio, launched just under a year ago, enables distributors to set up ‘no-fuss’ e-commerce, while further new offerings in the pipeline are extending the company’s reach across distributors across the scale range. These aspects were discussed in our recent ETV interview with Facilisgroup president, Ashley McCune. With Brand Addition, the focus is on building spend with existing clients as well as winning new accounts. The increasing complexity of client requirements, in terms of logistics and in ensuring brand safety, should stand it in good stead. The AGM statement refers to the robust order intake and also to an improvement in gross margin over the prior period.
Capex requirements likely to peak in FY23
The comments on current trading are all compatible with our existing modelling and we make no changes to earnings forecasts at this juncture. We do note, however, that management is indicating that the requirement for capital spend is likely to decrease from FY24e, suggesting that perhaps some of the Facilisgroup development programmes have come to fruition ahead of schedule. We will review our modelling on this aspect with the half-year results in early September.
Valuation: Discount to blended peer set valuation
Based on a sum-of-the-parts using peer group FY1 and FY2 EV/EBITDA multiples of US SaaS companies for Facilisgroup and of UK marketing services companies for Brand Addition, we derive an implied value of 113p/share. This is below the 125p cited in our March update, reflecting weak share price performance in both peer sets.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£000s |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
115,101 |
134,025 |
143,000 |
148,000 |
Cost of Sales |
(73,128) |
(81,279) |
(85,910) |
(88,199) |
||
Gross Profit |
41,973 |
52,746 |
57,090 |
59,801 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
15,378 |
18,042 |
19,250 |
20,400 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
11,475 |
12,896 |
13,350 |
14,250 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(894) |
(1,420) |
(1,400) |
(106) |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Share-based payments |
(715) |
(1,253) |
(1,500) |
(1,500) |
||
Reported operating profit |
9,866 |
10,223 |
10,450 |
12,644 |
||
Net Interest |
(549) |
(520) |
(450) |
(300) |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
10,926 |
12,376 |
12,900 |
13,950 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
9,317 |
9,703 |
10,000 |
12,344 |
Reported tax |
(1,970) |
(2,448) |
(2,150) |
(3,059) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
8,599 |
9,675 |
9,675 |
10,462 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
7,347 |
7,255 |
7,850 |
9,284 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
8,599 |
9,675 |
9,675 |
10,462 |
||
Net income (reported) |
7,347 |
7,254 |
7,850 |
9,284 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
167 |
167 |
167 |
167 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (p) |
|
|
5.14 |
5.78 |
5.78 |
6.25 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
5.12 |
5.77 |
5.77 |
6.23 |
EPS - basic reported (p) |
|
|
4.39 |
4.33 |
4.69 |
5.54 |
Dividend (p) |
0.00 |
0.60 |
1.30 |
1.87 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
39.7 |
16.4 |
6.7 |
3.5 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
36.5 |
39.4 |
39.9 |
40.4 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
13.4 |
13.5 |
13.5 |
13.8 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
10.0 |
9.6 |
9.3 |
9.6 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
63,901 |
69,786 |
73,908 |
80,689 |
Intangible Assets |
55,674 |
60,002 |
61,587 |
65,731 |
||
Tangible Assets |
7,927 |
9,492 |
12,029 |
14,666 |
||
Investments & other |
300 |
292 |
292 |
292 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
51,566 |
65,198 |
69,855 |
74,283 |
Stocks |
10,093 |
15,447 |
16,481 |
17,058 |
||
Debtors |
29,422 |
34,693 |
37,016 |
38,310 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
12,051 |
15,058 |
16,358 |
18,915 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
31,469 |
39,045 |
41,120 |
42,145 |
Creditors |
30,065 |
36,413 |
38,488 |
39,513 |
||
Tax and social security |
20 |
1,063 |
1,063 |
1,063 |
||
Short term borrowings / leases |
1,384 |
1,569 |
1,569 |
1,569 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
9,423 |
10,350 |
10,350 |
10,350 |
Long term borrowings / leases |
6,388 |
7,490 |
7,490 |
7,490 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
3,035 |
2,860 |
2,860 |
2,860 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
74,575 |
85,589 |
92,294 |
102,477 |
Minority interests |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
74,575 |
85,589 |
92,294 |
102,477 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
15,378 |
18,061 |
19,250 |
20,400 |
||
Working capital |
(2,861) |
(3,362) |
(1,283) |
(845) |
||
Exceptional & other |
(13) |
19 |
0 |
0 |
||
Tax |
(521) |
(1,712) |
(2,150) |
(3,059) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
11,983 |
13,006 |
15,817 |
16,495 |
Capex |
(5,282) |
(8,379) |
(9,200) |
(9,300) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net interest |
(549) |
(520) |
(450) |
(300) |
||
Equity financing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
(1,730) |
(2,495) |
||
Other |
(1,360) |
(1,737) |
(1,737) |
(1,737) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
4,792 |
2,370 |
2,700 |
2,663 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
1,913 |
(4,279) |
(5,999) |
(8,699) |
FX |
193 |
655 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
1,207 |
(1,305) |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(4,279) |
(5,999) |
(8,699) |
(11,362) |
Closing net debt/(cash) excluding leases |
|
|
(12,051) |
(15,058) |
(16,358) |
(18,915) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Investment Companies
Murray Income Trust (MUT) marks its 100-year anniversary this year. It invests mainly in UK equities and aims to provide capital growth and a high and growing income. The trust continues to meet these three objectives. Recent absolute and relative performance has improved after a rare bout of underperformance last year, as the merits of MUT’s high-quality portfolio holdings reassert themselves. In the six months to end April 2023, the trust returned 15.8% on an NAV basis, versus a market return of 12.8%. The trust is also on track to meet another milestone: 50 successive years of dividend growth. The FY23 dividend is expected to be at least 36.5p, which represents a prospective yield of 4.2%. MUT’s manager, Charles Luke, is confident the trust is well-positioned to continue delivering positive returns and growing income over the long term.
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