Agrana — Good nine-month performance

Research: Consumer

Agrana — Good nine-month performance

Agrana’s strong Q3, with its ability to push through cost increases, led to a good set of results for the first nine months of FY23 (9M23). Revenue was €2.743bn for 9M23, up 26% versus the prior year. Operating profit before exceptional items jumped to €121.6m, +77% versus a year ago. EBIT was €50.2m, down 33.9% vs 9M22, mostly due to an impairment charge in Q2. The outlook for 2022/23 is reaffirmed, with revenues expected to grow ‘significantly’ (ie 10–50%), group EBIT expected to grow ‘very significantly’ (ie over 50%) and operating profit before exceptional items and results of equity-accounted joint ventures expected to grow ‘significantly’.

Sara Welford

Written by

Sara Welford

Director, Consumer

Consumer

Agrana

Good nine-month performance

Consumer

QuickView

13 January 2023

Price

€16.0

Market cap

€998m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

AGRV.VI

Listing

Wiener Börse

Shares in issue

62.5m

Business description

Agrana adds value to agricultural commodities to create industrial products for downstream industries. It is a market leader in the manufacturing of fruit preparations and fruit concentrates. It is a major supplier of starch products and bioethanol in Europe, and a leading sugar company in Europe.

Bull

Strong market positions in its businesses.

Diversified business model provides stability.

Recent agricultural campaigns have gone well.

Bear

Agricultural commodities are prone to volatility.

Ethanol prices on a downward trend during Q3.

Consumer environment remains tough.

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Milo Bussell

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Agrana’s strong Q3, with its ability to push through cost increases, led to a good set of results for the first nine months of FY23 (9M23). Revenue was €2.743bn for 9M23, up 26% versus the prior year. Operating profit before exceptional items jumped to €121.6m, +77% versus a year ago. EBIT was €50.2m, down 33.9% vs 9M22, mostly due to an impairment charge in Q2. The outlook for 2022/23 is reaffirmed, with revenues expected to grow ‘significantly’ (ie 10–50%), group EBIT expected to grow ‘very significantly’ (ie over 50%) and operating profit before exceptional items and results of equity-accounted joint ventures expected to grow ‘significantly’.

Strong revenue growth in all segments

In Fruit (+16.6% 9M23 revenue growth), price was the main growth driver in fruit preparations, while concentrates also benefited from an increase in volumes. Starch revenue was up 33.9%; demand was restrained but revenue growth was mainly driven by the large increase in ethanol prices, though the ethanol price was on a downward trend during Q3. Agrana was also able to pass on some of the significantly higher manufacturing costs in the Starch segment. Sugar revenues also grew 33.9%, driven by increased volumes and significantly higher prices.

EBIT performance mixed

The key driver of the earnings improvement was the turnaround in the Sugar segment, driven by a better sales price environment and tight cost management. Starch performed well thanks to a strong H1 for the high-margin ethanol business. The EBIT of the Fruit segment swung to a loss, driven in part by the €91.2m Q2 impairment charge, but also due to significantly weaker profitability in fruit preparations in Europe and Asia-Pacific. Performance in the concentrate business was strong. We note that Fruit EBIT would have been €39.6m, up 9.4%, excluding the impairment charge. Q3 at Agrana is dominated by agricultural campaigns, and the processing of raw materials has been very satisfactory so far, according to management. The capacity utilisation of the sugar factories is lower than in the prior year, partly due to drought causing lower beet volumes, while in the Fruit segment, the good volume of the 2022 apple campaign will lead to continued strong results in the concentrate business in the coming months, according to Agrana.

Valuation: Balanced business model

Agrana trades on 14.3x consensus FY24e earnings, which is at a premium to its sugar peer Südzucker, on 8.9x, and more in line with Ebro Foods, on 14.6x. This reflects Agrana’s balanced business model and strong market positions.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

PBT
(€m)

EPS
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

02/21

2,547.0

78.7

1.0

0.9

16.7

5.3

02/22

2,901.5

24.7

(0.2)

0.8

(80.0)

4.7

02/23e

3,490.5

80.0

0.9

0.8

17.5

4.7

02/24e

3,366.5

105.5

1.1

0.8

14.3

5.0

Source: Refinitiv, company data

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE-OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

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1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. Where Edison has used consensus estimates within this publication, we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness.

Exclusion of liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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