Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP2.22
▲ 1.00 (0.45%)
Market capitalisation
GBP508m
Research: TMT
GB Group’s H119 update confirmed that the business is trading in line with expectations, with underlying organic revenue growth of 11% and underlying operating profit growth of 7% compared to H118. While our underlying forecasts are unchanged, we have upgraded our estimates to reflect the recent Vix Verify Global acquisition, which results in a 2.7% increase in our normalised FY20 EPS forecast.
GB Group |
FY19 growth on track |
Trading update |
Software & comp services |
25 October 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
GB Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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GB Group’s H119 update confirmed that the business is trading in line with expectations, with underlying organic revenue growth of 11% and underlying operating profit growth of 7% compared to H118. While our underlying forecasts are unchanged, we have upgraded our estimates to reflect the recent Vix Verify Global acquisition, which results in a 2.7% increase in our normalised FY20 EPS forecast.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
EBIT (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
03/17 |
87.5 |
17.0 |
16.5 |
9.9 |
2.4 |
51.8 |
03/18 |
119.7 |
26.3 |
25.8 |
13.5 |
2.7 |
37.9 |
03/19e |
136.4 |
27.0 |
26.4 |
13.8 |
3.0 |
37.0 |
03/20e |
161.7 |
30.9 |
30.4 |
15.6 |
3.3 |
32.6 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
H1 trading update in line with expectations
GBG’s trading update confirmed revenues of £57.2m for H119, up 9% on a reported basis but up 11% on an underlying organic basis after adjusting for the £3.5m one-off perpetual licence signed in H118. Expected adjusted operating profit of £8.7m was 16% lower than a year ago, but after adjusting for the perpetual licence in H118, was 7% higher on an underlying organic basis. Planned investments in technology and marketing are expected to have a disproportionate effect on profitability in H119 versus H219. Net cash at the end of H119 stood at £18.6m, up from the £13.5m at the end of FY18 and £4.1m at the end of H118. The company expects to meet consensus FY19 forecasts for revenue and profit.
Incorporating accretive Australian acquisition
We have incorporated the recent Vix Verify Global acquisition into our forecasts. This has minimal impact on FY19 forecasts; in FY20 it results in a 9.5% increase in our revenue forecast, a 3.3% increase in our EBITA forecast and a 2.7% increase in our normalised EPS forecast. Our end FY19 net cash forecast reduces from £28.4m to £7.2m.
Valuation: Premium reflects growth opportunity
GBG’s FY19e 26.8x EV/EBITDA and 37.0x P/E ratings are within the mix of other global companies in the identity access management and cyber security segments. While this is a considerable premium to the UK software sector, we believe it is supported by the good earnings quality and cash conversion, strong organic growth outlook and an active acquisition pipeline.
Incorporating Vix Verify Global
As described in our recent note (Scaling up down under), GBG has acquired Vix Verify Global (VVG) for $38.3m/£21.2m in cash. We make no changes to our underlying forecasts for GBG, solely upgrading forecasts on the incorporation of VVG into our estimates. FY20 is the first year to include a full 12 months of VVG – we estimate this adds c 10% to our revenue forecast. The company noted that it expected to achieve synergies during the first 12 months of ownership – we have assumed the benefit of cost synergies is not evident until H120, hence the zero impact on EBITDA in FY19. We understand that the acquired business will initially be lower margin than the group average, hence the only 3.3% increase in our FY20 EBITA forecast. We have assumed the company used a mixture of cash and debt to acquire the business and have factored in higher net finance costs. The overall effect is a 2.7% increase in our FY20 normalised EPS forecast.
Exhibit 1: Changes to estimates
£m |
|
FY19e |
FY19e |
% |
|
FY20e |
FY20e |
% |
|
previous |
new |
change |
|
previous |
new |
change |
|
Revenues |
133,350 |
136,350 |
2.2% |
147,733 |
161,733 |
9.5% |
||
EBITA |
27,000 |
27,000 |
0.0% |
29,962 |
30,942 |
3.3% |
||
EBITA margin (%) |
20.2% |
19.8% |
20.3% |
19.1% |
||||
PBT |
26,500 |
26,431 |
-0.3% |
29,562 |
30,362 |
2.7% |
||
EPS - normalised, diluted (p) |
13.8 |
13.8 |
-0.3% |
15.2 |
15.6 |
2.7% |
||
EPS - reported (p) |
6.9 |
6.9 |
-0.6% |
9.1 |
9.5 |
4.7% |
||
Net (cash)/debt |
(28,440) |
(7,185) |
-74.7% |
(45,356) |
(24,746) |
-45.4% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
£'000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
||
March |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
57,283 |
73,401 |
87,468 |
119,702 |
136,350 |
161,733 |
Cost of Sales |
(16,448) |
(17,606) |
(20,302) |
(27,092) |
(33,910) |
(39,966) |
||
Gross Profit |
40,835 |
55,795 |
67,166 |
92,610 |
102,440 |
121,767 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
11,844 |
14,772 |
18,734 |
28,741 |
29,675 |
33,699 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
10,790 |
13,428 |
17,006 |
26,311 |
27,000 |
30,942 |
||
Acquired intangible amortisation |
(1,986) |
(2,501) |
(4,022) |
(7,885) |
(8,100) |
(7,300) |
||
Exceptionals |
(1,629) |
(94) |
(1,410) |
(2,143) |
0 |
0 |
||
Share of associate |
(10) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Share based payments |
(971) |
(1,245) |
(994) |
(2,375) |
(2,500) |
(2,750) |
||
Operating Profit |
6,194 |
9,588 |
10,580 |
13,908 |
16,400 |
20,892 |
||
Net Interest |
(266) |
(270) |
(498) |
(508) |
(569) |
(580) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
10,524 |
13,158 |
16,508 |
25,803 |
26,431 |
30,362 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
5,928 |
9,318 |
10,082 |
13,400 |
15,831 |
20,312 |
Tax |
(1,127) |
(178) |
668 |
(2,746) |
(5,286) |
(5,769) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
8,314 |
10,395 |
13,206 |
20,642 |
21,541 |
24,593 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
4,801 |
9,140 |
10,750 |
10,654 |
10,545 |
14,543 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
119.1 |
122.7 |
131.6 |
150.6 |
152.9 |
153.5 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
7.0 |
8.5 |
10.0 |
13.7 |
14.1 |
16.0 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p) |
|
6.7 |
8.2 |
9.9 |
13.5 |
13.8 |
15.6 |
|
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
4.0 |
7.4 |
8.2 |
7.1 |
6.9 |
9.5 |
Dividend per share (p) |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
71.3 |
76.0 |
76.8 |
77.4 |
75.1 |
75.3 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
20.7 |
20.1 |
21.4 |
24.0 |
21.8 |
20.8 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
18.8 |
18.3 |
19.4 |
22.0 |
19.8 |
19.1 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
51,238 |
59,364 |
105,653 |
170,284 |
183,360 |
176,053 |
Intangible Assets |
45,296 |
54,113 |
98,753 |
161,372 |
173,492 |
165,212 |
||
Tangible Assets |
2,829 |
2,234 |
2,856 |
4,700 |
5,656 |
6,629 |
||
Other fixed assets |
3,113 |
3,017 |
4,044 |
4,212 |
4,212 |
4,212 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
33,186 |
36,189 |
48,187 |
60,722 |
62,780 |
85,061 |
Debtors |
17,408 |
23,774 |
30,569 |
37,969 |
44,347 |
53,067 |
||
Cash |
15,778 |
12,415 |
17,618 |
22,753 |
18,433 |
31,994 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(30,784) |
(32,559) |
(44,444) |
(56,942) |
(61,020) |
(67,240) |
Creditors |
(24,305) |
(30,927) |
(36,436) |
(56,100) |
(60,178) |
(66,398) |
||
Contingent consideration |
(5,733) |
(1,050) |
(7,122) |
(45) |
(45) |
(45) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(746) |
(582) |
(886) |
(797) |
(797) |
(797) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(7,506) |
(6,593) |
(15,940) |
(16,711) |
(18,711) |
(14,711) |
Long term borrowings |
(3,643) |
(3,160) |
(11,499) |
(8,451) |
(10,451) |
(6,451) |
||
Contingent consideration |
(895) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(2,968) |
(3,433) |
(4,441) |
(8,260) |
(8,260) |
(8,260) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
46,134 |
56,401 |
93,456 |
157,353 |
166,408 |
179,163 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
11,684 |
13,397 |
16,305 |
31,620 |
27,375 |
31,199 |
Net Interest |
(266) |
(282) |
(498) |
(545) |
(569) |
(580) |
||
Tax |
(337) |
(248) |
(2,193) |
(3,247) |
(5,286) |
(5,769) |
||
Capex |
(2,011) |
(1,762) |
(2,227) |
(2,018) |
(2,650) |
(2,750) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(18,672) |
(12,263) |
(36,840) |
(70,363) |
(21,200) |
0 |
||
Financing |
10,954 |
790 |
24,755 |
56,668 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(1,955) |
(2,277) |
(2,775) |
(3,582) |
(3,990) |
(4,539) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(603) |
(2,645) |
(3,473) |
8,533 |
(6,320) |
17,562 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(11,846) |
(11,389) |
(8,673) |
(5,233) |
(13,505) |
(7,185) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
146 |
(71) |
33 |
(261) |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(11,389) |
(8,673) |
(5,233) |
(13,505) |
(7,185) |
(24,746) |
Source: GB Group, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Real Estate
In H118 Consus completed its transformation into a pure-play, residential real estate developer focused on the forward sale operating model. It keeps a stable share of forward sold investments within its portfolio at c 26%, despite expanding its gross development value (GDV) by 37.4% ytd to €6.2bn. The company has implemented IFRS 15 into its accounting policies to better reflect recognition of income from property development. Ability to deliver results in line with the expected significant bottom line improvement is crucial for the company’s future market valuation, which has been volatile in recent months.