Wheaton Precious Metals — Fine tuning forecasts ahead of Q1 results

Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM)

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Research: Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Fine tuning forecasts ahead of Q1 results

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM) Q122 results are scheduled for release on Thursday 5 May, after the market close in Toronto (approximately 22.30 London time). Ahead of their release, we have honed our estimates to reflect production and sales of silver from Penasquito (announced by Newmont on 22 April), likely gold production from Salobo, based on its copper output (announced by Vale on 19 April) and production of silver at Antamina (announced by Glencore on 28 April). We have also adjusted our forecasts for the remainder of the year for recent moves in metals prices.

Lord Ashbourne

Written by

Lord Ashbourne

Director, Energy & Resources

Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals

Fine tuning forecasts ahead of Q1 results

Q122 preview note

Metals & mining

5 May 2022

Price

C$58.39

Market cap

C$26,326m

C$1.2748/US$, US$1.2543/£

Net cash (US$m) at end-December excluding US$2.9m in lease liabilities

226.0

Shares in issue

450.9m

Free float

100%

Code

WPM

Primary exchange

TSX

Secondary exchange

LSE, NYSE

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(4.3)

14.3

12.3

Rel (local)

(0.2)

14.7

1.7

52-week high/low

C$64.70

C$46.72

Business description

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) is the world’s pre-eminent ostensibly precious metals streaming company, with over 30 high-quality precious metals streams and early deposit agreements over mines in Mexico, Canada, Brazil, Chile, the US, Argentina, Peru, Sweden, Greece, Portugal and Colombia.

Next events

Q122 results

5 May 2022

Q222 results

11 August 2022

Q322 results

3 November 2022

Q422 results

March 2023

Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

Wheaton Precious Metals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM) Q122 results are scheduled for release on Thursday 5 May, after the market close in Toronto (approximately 22.30 London time). Ahead of their release, we have honed our estimates to reflect production and sales of silver from Penasquito (announced by Newmont on 22 April), likely gold production from Salobo, based on its copper output (announced by Vale on 19 April) and production of silver at Antamina (announced by Glencore on 28 April). We have also adjusted our forecasts for the remainder of the year for recent moves in metals prices.

Year end

Revenue (US$m)

PBT*
(US$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/20

1,096.2

503.2

112

42

40.9

0.9

12/21

1,201.7

592.1

132

57

34.7

1.2

12/22e

1,334.7

661.9

147

62

31.2

1.4

12/23e

1,556.9

830.2

184

74

24.9

1.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Focus on Salobo

Of the production from known assets, Salobo (which accounted for 28.6% of WPM’s sales in FY21) is the most significant. In this case, production of copper (Salobo’s main product) was 33.9kt in Q122, which was similar to both Q121 and Q421, with operations adversely affected by both planned and corrective maintenance in the mill liners and higher than average seasonal rainfall – albeit neither is expected to have any effect on overall FY22 production. Moreover, whereas Salobo began FY21 with a high level of inventory – with the result that sales exceeded production in Q121 – this appears unlikely to be repeated in Q122 as inventory has subsequently been depleted (as evidenced by the fact that sales closely approximated production in Q421).

Valuation: Barely changed at C$70.67/share

Notwithstanding our FY22 forecast adjustments, our valuation of WPM (which is based on a multiple of FY23 earnings) remains substantially unchanged. That is to say, in normal circumstances and assuming no material purchases of additional streams in the foreseeable future (which we think unlikely), we forecast a value per share for WPM of US$55.43 or C$70.67 or £44.19 in FY23 (cf C$71.34 previously), based on a multiple of earnings. In the meantime, WPM’s shares are trading on near-term financial ratios that are cheaper than those of its peers on at least 72% of common valuation measures if Edison forecasts are used or 55% if consensus forecasts are used. Note that, within this context, we regard it as significant that we forecast that WPM’s earnings, cash flows and dividends will all rise in FY23 cf FY22 (in line with production expectations), while the market appears to believe that they will remain broadly flat. Nevertheless, if WPM’s shares were to trade at the same level as the average of its peers, then we calculate that its year one share price should be US$57.69 (C$73.55 or £45.99), based on our forecasts for FY22. Alternatively, if precious metals return to favour and WPM to a premium rating, we believe a US$70.92 (C$90.41 or £56.54) per share valuation is possible.

Q122 and FY22 forecast refinements

In the light of the adjustments noted above, we have updated our quarterly estimates for FY22 as follows:

Exhibit 1: WPM FY22 forecast, by quarter*

US$000s
(unless otherwise stated)

Q122e
(prior)

Q222e
(prior)

Q322e
(prior)

Q422e
(prior)

Q122e

Q222e

Q322e

Q422e

FY22e
(current)

FY22e
(prior)

Silver production (koz)

5,900

5,900

5,900

5,900

5,972

5,900

5,900

5,900

23,671

23,598

Gold production (oz)

95,097

95,097

91,474

95,097

88,678

95,097

91,474

95,097

370,345

376,763

Palladium production (koz)

4,750

4,750

4,750

4,750

4,750

4,750

4,750

4,750

19,000

19,000

Cobalt production (klb)

347

347

347

347

347

347

347

347

1,386

1,386

Silver sales (koz)

5,900

5,900

5,900

5,900

5,865

5,900

5,900

5,900

23,564

23,598

Gold sales (oz)

95,065

95,065

91,442

95,065

83,286

95,065

91,442

95,065

364,857

376,635

Palladium sales (oz)

4,731

4,731

4,731

4,731

4,731

4,731

4,731

4,731

18,924

18,924

Cobalt sales (klb)

347

347

347

347

321

347

347

347

1,361

1,386

Avg realised Ag price (US$/oz)

23.95

24.64

24.64

24.64

24.04

23.50

23.00

23.00

23.38

24.47

Avg realised Au price (US$/oz)

1,876

1,926

1,926

1,926

1,878

1,907

1,895

1,895

1,894

1,913

Avg realised Pd price (US$/oz)

2,336

2,444

2,444

2,444

2,329

2,275

2,255

2,255

2,278

2,417

Avg realised Co price (US$/lb)

33.66

37.14

37.14

37.14

33.78

37.07

37.06

37.06

36.29

36.27

Avg Ag cash cost (US$/oz)

5.61

5.64

5.64

5.65

5.63

5.60

5.58

5.58

5.60

5.63

Avg Au cash cost (US$/oz)

430

431

432

431

430

431

432

431

431

431

Avg Pd cash cost (US$/oz)

421

440

440

440

419

409

406

406

410

435

Avg Co cash cost (US$/lb)

6.06

6.68

6.68

6.68

6.08

6.67

6.67

6.67

6.53

6.53

Sales

342,334

352,891

345,913

352,891

319,280

343,542

332,482

339,348

1,334,651

1,394,029

Cost of sales

Cost of sales, excluding depletion

78,054

78,613

77,164

78,696

72,819

78,188

76,599

78,131

305,736

312,528

Depletion

75,262

75,262

71,552

75,262

70,699

75,262

71,552

75,262

292,775

297,337

Total cost of sales

153,316

153,875

148,716

153,958

143,518

153,450

148,151

153,393

598,511

609,865

Earnings from operations

189,018

199,016

197,197

198,933

175,762

190,092

184,332

185,955

736,140

784,164

Expenses and other income

– General and administrative**

18,781

16,965

16,965

16,965

19,405

15,840

16,965

16,965

69,175

69,678

– Foreign exchange (gain)/loss

0

0

– Net interest paid/(received)

1,292

1,257

1,260

1,246

1,292

1,262

1,266

1,255

5,076

5,055

– Other (income)/expense

0

0

Total expenses and other income

20,073

18,222

18,226

18,212

20,696

17,102

18,232

18,221

74,251

74,733

Earnings before income taxes

168,945

180,794

178,972

180,721

155,066

172,990

166,100

167,734

661,889

709,432

Income tax expense/(recovery)

250

250

250

250

250

250

250

250

1,000

1,000

Marginal tax rate (%)

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

Net earnings

168,695

180,544

178,722

180,471

154,816

172,740

165,850

167,484

660,889

708,432

Average no. shares in issue (000s)

450,864

450,864

450,864

450,864

450,864

450,864

450,864

450,864

450,864

450,864

Basic EPS (US$)

0.374

0.400

0.396

0.400

0.343

0.383

0.368

0.371

1.47

1.57

Diluted EPS (US$)

0.364

0.390

0.386

0.389

0.334

0.373

0.358

0.361

1.43

1.53

DPS (US$)

0.15

0.16

0.17

0.17

0.15

0.15

0.17

0.16

0.62

0.65

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Excluding impairments, impairment reversals and exceptional items. **Forecasts now include stock-based compensation costs. Totals may not add up owing to rounding.

Our updated forecasts for the year (and its constituent quarters) now compare to those of the market as follows:

Exhibit 2: WPM FY22 consensus EPS forecasts (US$/share), by quarter

Q122e

Q222e

Q322e

Q422e

Sum Q1–Q422e

FY22e

FY23e

Edison forecasts

0.343

0.383

0.368

0.371

1.465

1.466

1.839

Mean consensus

0.347

0.368

0.368

0.379

1.462

1.441

1.451

High consensus

0.379

0.400

0.389

0.431

1.599

1.577

1.798

Low consensus

0.326

0.336

0.347

0.336

1.345

1.199

1.241

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Consensus priced as at 4 May 2022.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

US$'000s

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022e

2023e

2024e

Dec

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

891,557

843,215

794,012

861,332

1,096,224

1,201,665

1,334,651

1,556,926

1,568,980

Cost of Sales

(254,434)

(243,801)

(245,794)

(258,559)

(266,763)

(287,947)

(305,736)

(343,021)

(340,757)

Gross Profit

637,123

599,414

548,218

602,773

829,461

913,718

1,028,915

1,213,906

1,228,223

EBITDA

 

 

602,684

564,741

496,568

548,266

763,763

852,733

959,740

1,144,730

1,159,048

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

293,982

302,361

244,281

291,440

519,874

597,940

666,965

829,449

821,495

Exceptionals

(71,000)

(228,680)

245,715

(156,608)

4,469

162,806

0

0

0

Other

(4,982)

8,129

(5,826)

217

387

190

0

0

0

Operating Profit

218,000

81,810

484,170

135,049

524,730

760,936

666,965

829,449

821,495

Net Interest

(24,193)

(24,993)

(41,187)

(48,730)

(16,715)

(5,817)

(5,076)

760

750

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

269,789

277,368

203,094

242,710

503,159

592,123

661,889

830,209

822,245

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

193,807

56,817

442,983

86,319

508,015

755,119

661,889

830,209

822,245

Tax

1,330

886

(15,868)

(181)

(211)

(234)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Profit After Tax (norm)

266,137

286,383

181,400

242,746

503,335

592,079

660,889

829,209

821,245

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

195,137

57,703

427,115

86,138

507,804

754,885

660,889

829,209

821,245

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

430.5

442.0

443.4

446.0

448.7

450.1

450.9

450.9

450.9

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

62

63

48

54

112

132

147

184

182

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c)

 

 

62

63

48

54

112

131

143

179

177

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

45

13

96

19

113

168

147

184

182

Dividend per share (c)

21

33

36

36

42

57

62

74

77

Gross Margin (%)

71.5

71.1

69.0

70.0

75.7

76.0

77.1

78.0

78.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

67.6

67.0

62.5

63.7

69.7

71.0

71.9

73.5

73.9

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

33.0

35.9

30.8

33.8

47.4

49.8

50.0

53.3

52.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

6,025,227

5,579,898

6,390,342

6,123,255

5,755,441

6,046,427

6,256,902

6,761,871

6,674,818

Intangible Assets

5,948,443

5,454,106

6,196,187

5,768,883

5,521,632

5,940,538

6,151,013

6,655,982

6,568,929

Tangible Assets

12,163

30,060

29,402

44,615

33,931

44,412

44,412

44,412

44,412

Investments

64,621

95,732

164,753

309,757

199,878

61,477

61,477

61,477

61,477

Current Assets

 

 

128,092

103,415

79,704

154,752

201,831

249,724

435,453

431,691

993,125

Stocks

1,481

1,700

1,541

43,628

3,265

12,102

3,140

3,663

3,692

Debtors

2,316

3,194

2,396

7,138

5,883

11,577

7,313

8,531

8,597

Cash

124,295

98,521

75,767

103,986

192,683

226,045

424,999

419,497

980,837

Current Liabilities

 

 

(19,057)

(12,143)

(28,841)

(64,700)

(31,169)

(29,691)

(45,911)

(49,588)

(49,365)

Creditors

(19,057)

(12,143)

(28,841)

(63,976)

(30,396)

(28,878)

(45,098)

(48,775)

(48,552)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

(724)

(773)

(813)

(813)

(813)

(813)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(1,194,274)

(771,506)

(1,269,289)

(887,387)

(211,532)

(16,343)

(16,343)

(16,343)

(16,343)

Long term borrowings

(1,193,000)

(770,000)

(1,264,000)

(878,028)

(197,864)

(2,060)

(2,060)

(2,060)

(2,060)

Other long term liabilities

(1,274)

(1,506)

(5,289)

(9,359)

(13,668)

(14,283)

(14,283)

(14,283)

(14,283)

Net Assets

 

 

4,939,988

4,899,664

5,171,916

5,325,920

5,714,571

6,250,117

6,630,101

7,127,631

7,602,235

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

608,503

564,187

518,680

548,301

784,843

851,686

989,185

1,146,667

1,158,730

Net Interest

(24,193)

(24,993)

(41,187)

(41,242)

(16,715)

(5,817)

(5,076)

760

750

Tax

28

(326)

0

(5,380)

(2,686)

(503)

(1,000)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Capex

(805,472)

(19,633)

(861,406)

10,571

149,648

(404,437)

(503,250)

(820,250)

(250,500)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Financing

595,140

1,236

1,279

37,198

22,396

7,992

0

(0)

0

Dividends

(78,708)

(121,934)

(132,915)

(129,986)

(167,212)

(218,052)

(280,905)

(331,679)

(346,640)

Net Cash Flow

295,298

398,537

(515,549)

419,462

770,274

230,869

198,954

(5,503)

561,340

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

1,362,703

1,068,705

671,479

1,188,233

774,766

5,954

(223,172)

(422,126)

(416,624)

Other

(1,300)

(1,311)

(1,205)

(5,995)

(1,462)

(1,743)

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

1,068,705

671,479

1,188,233

774,766

5,954

(223,172)

(422,126)

(416,624)

(977,964)

Source: Company sources, Edison Investment Research


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New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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New Zealand

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United Kingdom

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United States

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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