Epwin Group — Expectations raised

Epwin Group (AIM: EPWN)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 02/02/2023

GBP0.76

−0.50 (−0.66%)

Market capitalisation

GBP109m

Research: Industrials

Epwin Group — Expectations raised

Having previously noted 9% revenue progress for the first four months of FY21 (versus FY19), the rate improved to 13% for H121 as a whole, despite some challenges due to strong demand levels. With positive cash generation also, Epwin has had a good start to FY21 and we have increased our PBT estimates for the year by 20% to reflect this momentum.

Industrials

Epwin Group

Expectations raised

H121 pre close update

Construction & materials

13 August 2021

Price

115.0p

Market cap

£166m

Covenant net debt (£m) at end June 2021

15.9

Shares in issue

142.9m

Free float

67%

Code

EPWN

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

8.3

5.8

62.1

Rel (local)

6.4

1.2

34.3

52-week high/low

116.0p

64.2p

Business description

Epwin Group supplies functional low-maintenance exterior building products (including windows, doors, roofline and rainwater goods) into a number of UK market segments and is a modest exporter. It has a vertically integrated model in windows and doors and a leading market position in roofline products.

Next events

H121 results announcement

15 September

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Epwin Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Having previously noted 9% revenue progress for the first four months of FY21 (versus FY19), the rate improved to 13% for H121 as a whole, despite some challenges due to strong demand levels. With positive cash generation also, Epwin has had a good start to FY21 and we have increased our PBT estimates for the year by 20% to reflect this momentum.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

282.1

15.0

8.5

1.8

13.6

1.5

12/20

241.0

5.0

4.0

1.0

28.9

0.9

12/21e

309.3

12.0

6.8

2.5

17.0

2.2

12/22e

314.4

13.8

7.8

3.4

14.7

3.0

Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation and exceptionals, on an IFRS 16 basis from FY19. Dividends: FY19 represents an H1 payment only; FY20 represents a final payment only.

Epwin’s good start to FY21 continues

A H121 pre close update pointed to a 13% revenue uplift versus its undisturbed (pre COVID-19) H119 comparator with good progress in both divisions. Firm residential RMI markets were the key driver here for both divisions while flatter newbuild and social housing subsectors diluted the rate of headline progress somewhat. Increases in polymer prices and other industry wide supply chain issues were again noted; the pass through of input cost inflation will have contributed to revenue growth for Epwin, remembering also that there can be a lag for selling prices to adjust. So, while higher volume and operational gearing effects will be favourable, we expect that the dilutive and delayed effects of rising prices will have held H121 EBIT margins below their H119 equivalents. A reduction in core net debt (of c £2.6m to £15.9m over the six months to end H121) will have been the product of net corporate activity (asset proceeds less M&A spend) and underlying cash generation in broadly equal measure in our view. With pressures to rebuild inventory on top of the usual seasonal cycle, a H1 cash inflow is noteworthy.

Sharper rate of recovery raises estimates

Absent new supply chain impacts in H2, Epwin now anticipates PBT ‘materially ahead’ of its previous expectations. Pre update FY21 consensus PBT was £10.9m (EPS c 4p); we have raised our estimate by 20% to £12m with smaller (3–4%) uplifts in the following two years (possibly suggesting dividend upside also). This reflects a sharper than expected near-term rate of recovery and some conservatism regarding the rate at which operating margins can normalise /rebuild back towards FY19 levels. On our estimates, earnings regain and exceed FY19 levels in FY23

Valuation: Share price outperformance ytd

Epwin’s share price is now ahead c 29% ytd, comfortably ahead of the c 11% recorded by the FTSE All-Share Index over this period. The near-term rating has an early cycle look (FY21 P/E 17.0x and EV/EBITDA pre IFRS 16 of 7.4x), which reduces to 12.5x and 5.6x, respectively, by FY23. We anticipate that the dividend yield will have rebuilt to 3.7% by this time also. Sector share prices seem to be pausing and waiting for evidence of sustained market strength and/or successful navigation of supply chain challenges so the forthcoming interim results season is likely to be seen as an important bellwether in this regard.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£m

2015

2016

2017

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

Year-end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS*

IFRS*

IFRS*

IFRS*

IFRS*

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

Restated

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

256.0

293.2

298.3

292.8

281.1

282.1

241.0

309.3

314.4

319.4

Cost of Sales

 

 

(178.6)

(200.6)

(207.5)

(201.5)

(196.4)

(193.3)

(168.8)

(219.6)

(219.3)

(221.9)

Gross Profit

 

 

77.4

92.6

90.8

91.3

84.8

88.8

72.2

89.7

95.1

97.5

EBITDA (pre IFRS 16)

 

 

25.6

33.3

30.3

32.1

26.7

26.4

16.9

24.6

26.5

29.0

EBITDA (IFRS 16 norm)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

38.2

28.6

37.7

39.6

42.1

Op Profit (pre IFRS 16 norm)

 

 

20.1

25.6

22.3

24.2

18.7

19.1

7.3

14.7

16.4

18.7

Op Profit (IFRS 16 norm)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

21.2

9.4

16.8

18.5

20.8

SBP

 

 

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.7)

(1.4)

0.0

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Net Interest

 

 

(0.5)

(1.0)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.5)

(4.8)

(4.4)

(4.2)

(4.0)

(3.9)

Intangible Amortisation

 

 

(0.0)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

Exceptionals

 

 

(0.6)

(0.2)

(7.4)

(7.4)

(2.0)

(2.3)

(2.8)

0.0

0.0

0.0

PBT (IFRS16 norm)

 

 

19.2

24.3

20.5

22.4

16.5

15.0

5.0

12.0

13.8

16.2

PBT (statutory)

 

 

18.6

23.0

12.0

13.9

13.3

12.4

1.9

11.7

13.5

15.9

Tax

 

 

(3.3)

(3.4)

(1.9)

(2.3)

(2.5)

(2.8)

0.7

(2.2)

(2.5)

(2.9)

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

15.9

20.9

17.6

19.1

14.0

12.1

5.7

9.8

11.3

13.3

Profit After Tax (statutory)

 

 

15.3

19.6

10.1

11.6

10.8

9.5

2.6

9.5

11.0

13.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

135.2

141.5

142.6

142.6

142.9

142.9

143.0

144.5

144.5

144.5

EPS - norm (p)*

 

11.8

14.8

12.4

13.4

9.8

8.5

4.0

6.8

7.8

9.2

EPS - norm (p) FD*

 

11.7

14.7

12.4

13.4

9.8

8.5

4.0

6.8

7.8

9.2

EPS - statutory (p)

 

 

11.3

13.8

7.1

7.1

4.1

6.7

1.8

6.6

7.6

9.0

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

6.4

6.6

6.7

6.7

4.9

1.8

1.0

2.5

3.4

4.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

30.2

31.6

30.4

31.2

30.2

31.5

30.0

29.0

30.3

30.5

EBITDA pre IFRS 16 Margin (%)

 

 

10.0

11.3

10.2

11.0

9.5

9.3

7.0

7.9

8.4

9.1

Op Margin pre IFRS 16 norm (%)

 

7.9

8.7

7.5

8.3

6.7

6.8

3.0

4.8

5.2

5.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

93.5

108.5

106.2

 

111.7

125.6

108.2

109.9

108.5

106.9

Intangible Assets

 

 

59.7

70.2

69.6

 

73.7

75.7

75.0

77.0

76.7

76.4

Tangible Assets

 

 

33.1

37.9

36.0

 

37.3

46.1

29.5

29.1

28.0

26.7

Other

 

 

0.7

0.4

0.6

 

0.7

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

Current Assets

 

 

87.2

82.6

82.2

 

75.7

91.5

76.8

99.7

108.9

119.9

Stocks

 

 

23.6

28.2

29.6

 

29.2

30.3

29.6

39.5

39.4

39.9

Debtors

 

 

41.5

41.4

45.3

 

40.4

44.0

45.0

53.7

54.8

55.9

Cash

 

 

22.1

13.0

7.3

 

6.1

17.2

2.2

6.5

14.7

24.1

Current Liabilities

 

 

(68.8)

(79.2)

(79.2)

 

(69.3)

(77.4)

(62.2)

(79.8)

(80.6)

(82.2)

Creditors

 

 

(53.2)

(62.9)

(58.2)

 

(63.7)

(76.1)

(58.8)

(76.4)

(77.2)

(78.8)

Short term borrowings

 

 

(15.6)

(16.3)

(21.0)

 

(5.6)

(1.3)

(3.4)

(3.4)

(3.4)

(3.4)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(31.8)

(21.0)

(15.5)

 

(28.1)

(36.7)

(21.4)

(21.4)

(21.4)

(21.4)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(20.9)

(17.3)

(11.4)

 

(25.3)

(32.3)

(17.3)

(17.3)

(17.3)

(17.3)

Other long term liabilities

 

 

(10.9)

(3.7)

(4.1)

 

(2.8)

(4.4)

(4.1)

(4.1)

(4.1)

(4.1)

Net Assets

 

 

80.1

90.9

93.7

 

90.0

103.0

101.5

108.5

115.5

123.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

23.8

30.8

19.9

18.1

25.8

34.8

23.7

33.0

38.5

41.2

Net Interest

 

 

(0.5)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.3)

(1.6)

(1.4)

(1.3)

(1.1)

(1.0)

Tax

 

 

(2.3)

(3.8)

(2.7)

(2.7)

(2.6)

(3.3)

(0.8)

(3.7)

(2.5)

(2.9)

Capex***

 

 

(9.0)

(12.7)

(7.1)

(5.3)

(12.5)

1.5

(8.0)

(4.0)

(9.2)

(9.2)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

(20.9)

(10.2)

(3.9)

(3.9)

0.0

(2.2)

0.0

(3.8)

0.0

0.0

Financing

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.0)

(12.3)

(13.4)

(13.4)

(13.4)

(13.4)

Dividends

 

 

(6.7)

(9.1)

(9.5)

(9.5)

(8.8)

(7.1)

0.0

(2.6)

(4.1)

(5.2)

Net Cash Flow

 

 

(15.6)

(6.1)

(4.3)

(4.3)

0.6

9.7

0.1

4.3

8.2

9.4

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(1.1)

14.4

20.6

20.6

25.1

24.8

16.4

18.5

14.2

6.0

Finance leases

 

 

0.4

1.9

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

 

 

(0.3)

(2.1)

1.2

1.2

0.8

(1.4)

(2.2)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)**

 

 

14.4

20.6

25.1

25.1

24.8

16.4

18.5

14.2

6.0

(3.4)

IFRS 16 leases

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

71.0

80.8

86.0

86.0

86.0

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *IFRS 16 from 2019. **Consistent with company defined pre-IFRS 16 net debt, which includes some other (non IFRS 16) finance leases (H120: £4m). We have assumed this category of leases to be constant in our estimate years (and shown as short-term borrowings). ***FY21 net capex comprises £9.2m gross less £5.2m receipt of Telford II final proceeds.


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Epwin Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Epwin Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

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Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Epwin Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Epwin Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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