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Research: Healthcare
According to Ergomed’s H120 trading update, the business successfully navigated the COVID-19 pandemic in H120. Underlying revenues in the PrimeVigilance segment grew 36.0% (or 62.1% including the recent acquisition), while the CRO segment, unsurprisingly, saw a modest decline as a result of the widespread lockdowns. The growth prospects, however, remain intact in our view. Ergomed has proved to be a resilient business, which we attribute to a diversified and well-balanced pharma services offering (pharmacovigilance and CRO). Strong H120 sales and a record order book at 30 June 2020 should see Ergomed carry its strong momentum into 2020 and beyond. Net positive revisions to our estimates and a material expansion of peer multiples has led to a significant upgrade to our valuation to £345m or 713p/share.
Written by
Jonas Peciulis
Ergomed |
Diversified services offering proves resilient |
H120 trading update |
Healthcare services |
23 July 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Ergomed is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
According to Ergomed’s H120 trading update, the business successfully navigated the COVID-19 pandemic in H120. Underlying revenues in the PrimeVigilance segment grew 36.0% (or 62.1% including the recent acquisition), while the CRO segment, unsurprisingly, saw a modest decline as a result of the widespread lockdowns. The growth prospects, however, remain intact in our view. Ergomed has proved to be a resilient business, which we attribute to a diversified and well-balanced pharma services offering (pharmacovigilance and CRO). Strong H120 sales and a record order book at 30 June 2020 should see Ergomed carry its strong momentum into 2020 and beyond. Net positive revisions to our estimates and a material expansion of peer multiples has led to a significant upgrade to our valuation to £345m or 713p/share.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
Adj. EBITDA* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/18 |
54.1 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/19 |
68.3 |
12.5 |
19.8 |
0.0 |
30.9 |
N/A |
12/20e |
85.7 |
16.9 |
27.7 |
0.0 |
21.7 |
N/A |
12/21e |
100.5 |
18.8 |
29.8 |
0.0 |
20.1 |
N/A |
Note: *Adj. EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Good order book growth, high revenue visibility
Total H120 revenues increased to £40.4m, up 14.8%, while underlying service fees grew by 18.0% (excludes revenue from the recently acquired PrimeVigilance USA, pass-through revenues and H119 one-off revenues of £1.6m). Sales of new business increased to £60.2m, up 22.9% y-o-y, which led to a strong period book-to-bill ratio of 1.49x vs 1.22x in FY19. Ergomed indicated that new business was won across both segments, including within the newly acquired PrimeVigilance USA. Order book growth was therefore strong as well, to £151.4m, up 22.0% from the last reported figure (end FY19) and up 28.0% y-o-y. This provides high visibility for the remainder of 2020 and 2021.
PrimeVigilance segment outperforms
Revenues in the PrimeVigilance segment increased to £26.1m, up 62.1% y-o-y. This includes the PrimeVigilance USA business (formerly Ashfield Pharmacovigilance) acquired in January 2020, which is now fully integrated. Excluding that the comparable PrimeVigilance revenues grew 36.0% y-o-y. Modest disruption from the pandemic resulted in a decrease in H120 CRO underlying service fees to £11.1m, down 6.7% y-o-y. Total CRO segment revenues decreased to £14.3m, down 24.7% (taking into account pass-through revenues and the inclusion of the £1.6m one-off revenue in H119). Pass-through costs are billed to clients.
Valuation: £345m or 713p/share
We value Ergomed at £345m or 713p/share, compared to £186m or 399p/share previously. This is a result of net positive revisions of our estimates, but more significantly substantial peer multiple expansion (Exhibit 2 vs last published in the initiation report). Ergomed indicated that FY20 EBITDA will be ‘materially ahead of current market expectations’. Full audited interim results will be released in September 2020, which is when we will revise our estimates in detail.
H120 trading update: FY20 EBITDA ‘to be materially ahead of current market expectations’
Widespread lockdowns inevitably caused disruptions to the clinical drug development industry, however, demand for Pharmacovigilance services remained high. Gross margins across Ergomed’s PrimeVigilance and CRO businesses are roughly similar once pass-through costs have been accounted for. As a result of this well-balanced services offering, Ergomed was able to successfully navigate the disruptions caused by the pandemic and is now guiding FY20 EBITDA ‘to be materially ahead of current market expectations’.
Cash was £14.1m at end-June 2020 (no debt) vs £14.3m at end-December 2019. PrimeVigilance USA was acquired in January 2020 (all cash), which means Ergomed has earned the £8m spent amount back, indicating strong cash flow in the period. The company has access to £30m in debt, which could be used for further business expansion.
We have made some revisions to our estimates, mainly to reflect the top-line trends reported in the H120 trading update (Exhibit 1). The effect on our top-line estimate for 2020 was slightly net positive and our adjusted EBITDA estimates now stand at £16.9m and £18.8m for 2020 and 2021, respectively.
We value Ergomed using 2020 and 2021 peer EV/EBITDA multiples of 20.8x and 16.3x (equally weighted). We note that peer multiples have risen significantly since our 25 March 2020 report (which reflected our prior valuation of £186m); the peer FY20e sector EV/EBITDA multiple used as the basis of the prior valuation was 11.5x.
Exhibit 1: Key changes to our financial forecasts
£m |
FY19 |
FY20e |
FY21e |
||||
Actual |
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
|
Total revenues |
68.3 |
84.8 |
85.7 |
1.1% |
100.3 |
100.5 |
0.2% |
– PrimeVigilance |
35.4 |
49.6 |
53.6 |
8.1% |
58.0 |
58.4 |
0.8% |
– CRO |
32.8 |
35.2 |
32.1 |
-8.8% |
42.3 |
42.1 |
-0.5% |
O/W pass-through |
8.5 |
7.5 |
6.7 |
-10.5% |
8.5 |
8.8 |
4.1% |
Adjusted EBITDA |
12.5 |
14.9 |
16.9 |
13.1% |
17.6 |
18.8 |
6.7% |
Adjusted EBIT |
8.8 |
13.5 |
15.4 |
14.5% |
16.2 |
17.3 |
7.3% |
Adjusted EPS (p) |
19.8 |
24.9 |
27.7 |
11.6% |
28.9 |
29.8 |
3.1% |
Source: Ergomed H120 trading update, Edison Investment Research. Note: Adjustments mainly exclude share-based payments.
Exhibit 2: Comparable companies
EV ($m) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
EV/sales (x) |
P/E (x) |
P/book (x) |
|
Market consensus forecast/actual FY19 |
|||||
Syneos Health |
8,829 |
13.68 |
1.89 |
18.81 |
2.08 |
PRA Health Sciences |
7,536 |
14.14 |
2.46 |
19.79 |
5.96 |
ICON |
9,796 |
19.79 |
3.49 |
27.73 |
6.32 |
Medpace |
3,604 |
24.09 |
4.19 |
34.97 |
5.24 |
Average |
7,441 |
17.93 |
3.01 |
25.32 |
4.90 |
FY20e |
|||||
Syneos Health |
8,829 |
14.98 |
1.98 |
20.42 |
2.11 |
PRA Health Sciences |
7,536 |
16.23 |
2.46 |
23.79 |
5.41 |
ICON |
9,796 |
22.53 |
3.64 |
32.05 |
7.04 |
Medpace |
3,604 |
29.62 |
4.35 |
44.80 |
5.08 |
Average |
7,441 |
20.84 |
3.10 |
30.26 |
4.91 |
FY21e |
|||||
Syneos Health |
8,829 |
12.73 |
1.77 |
16.28 |
1.94 |
PRA Health Sciences |
7,536 |
13.23 |
2.23 |
18.21 |
4.95 |
ICON |
9,796 |
18.62 |
3.24 |
25.37 |
6.36 |
Medpace |
3,604 |
20.55 |
3.51 |
29.63 |
4.59 |
Average |
7,441 |
16.28 |
2.69 |
22.37 |
4.46 |
Source: Refinitiv. Note: Prices at 21 July 2020.
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
Accounts: IFRS, year-end 31 December (£000s) |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
INCOME STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
Total revenues |
47,624 |
54,112 |
68,255 |
85,726 |
100,509 |
Cost of sales |
(22,398) |
(26,788) |
(29,790) |
(39,902) |
(46,751) |
Reimbursable expenses |
(7,609) |
(8,070) |
(8,940) |
(7,472) |
(9,645) |
Gross profit |
17,617 |
19,254 |
29,525 |
38,352 |
44,113 |
Gross margin % |
37% |
36% |
43% |
45% |
44% |
SG&A (expenses) |
(19,784) |
(28,152) |
(23,513) |
(23,394) |
(27,241) |
R&D costs |
(2,689) |
(1,578) |
(545) |
(485) |
(495) |
Other income/(expense) |
952 |
30 |
51 |
0 |
0 |
Exceptionals and adjustments |
5,062 |
10,165 |
3,265 |
957 |
957 |
Reported EBITDA |
(2,278) |
(7,912) |
9,230 |
15,924 |
17,836 |
Depreciation and amortisation |
1,626 |
2,534 |
3,712 |
1,451 |
1,460 |
Reported EBIT |
(3,904) |
(10,446) |
5,518 |
14,473 |
16,376 |
Finance income/(expense) |
(543) |
(599) |
(245) |
(205) |
(156) |
Other income/(expense) |
0 |
277 |
(286) |
0 |
0 |
Reported PBT |
(4,447) |
(10,768) |
4,987 |
14,268 |
16,220 |
Income tax expense (includes exceptionals) |
(57) |
(89) |
583 |
(2,510) |
(3,244) |
Reported net income |
(4,504) |
(8,980) |
5,570 |
11,758 |
12,976 |
Basic average number of shares, m |
41.1 |
44.7 |
46.6 |
47.5 |
48.3 |
Basic EPS (p) |
(11.0) |
(20.1) |
12.0 |
24.8 |
26.8 |
|
|||||
Adjusted EBITDA |
2,784 |
2,253 |
12,495 |
16,881 |
18,793 |
Adjusted EBIT |
1,158 |
(281) |
8,783 |
15,430 |
17,333 |
Adjusted PBT |
1,782 |
960 |
8,637 |
15,676 |
17,637 |
Adjusted EPS (p) |
4.2 |
1.9 |
19.8 |
27.7 |
29.8 |
Adjusted diluted EPS (p) |
4.2 |
1.9 |
19.8 |
27.7 |
29.8 |
Order book |
88,200 |
109,200 |
125,000 |
143,961 |
163,810 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
Property, plant and equipment |
1,078 |
1,344 |
1,110 |
1,100 |
1,090 |
Right-of-use assets |
- |
- |
5,171 |
5,171 |
5,171 |
Goodwill |
15,269 |
13,659 |
13,380 |
21,080 |
21,080 |
Intangible assets |
20,229 |
3,740 |
2,755 |
2,304 |
1,845 |
Other non-current assets |
2,367 |
2,646 |
2,616 |
2,666 |
2,716 |
Total non-current assets |
38,943 |
21,389 |
25,032 |
32,321 |
31,902 |
Cash and equivalents |
3,218 |
5,189 |
14,259 |
17,839 |
30,043 |
Trade and other receivables |
16,807 |
16,429 |
14,359 |
19,528 |
22,867 |
Other current assets |
2,945 |
3,857 |
5,665 |
5,665 |
5,665 |
Total current assets |
22,970 |
25,475 |
34,283 |
43,032 |
58,575 |
Lease liabilities |
0 |
0 |
3,716 |
3,716 |
3,716 |
Long term debt |
0 |
0 |
|||
Other non-current liabilities |
13,201 |
1,314 |
635 |
635 |
635 |
Total non-current liabilities |
13,207 |
1,314 |
4,351 |
4,351 |
4,351 |
Trade and other payables |
10,717 |
10,989 |
10,373 |
14,653 |
16,801 |
Lease liabilities |
0 |
0 |
1,718 |
1,718 |
1,718 |
Other current liabilities |
3,134 |
6,192 |
6,053 |
6,053 |
6,053 |
Total current liabilities |
13,863 |
17,187 |
18,144 |
22,424 |
24,572 |
Equity attributable to company |
34,843 |
28,363 |
36,820 |
48,578 |
61,554 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
Profit before tax |
(4,447) |
(10,768) |
4,987 |
14,268 |
16,220 |
Cash from operations (CFO) |
70 |
1,044 |
11,788 |
12,270 |
13,194 |
Capex |
(1,425) |
(1,587) |
(996) |
(1,000) |
(1,000) |
Acquisitions & disposals net |
(1,932) |
(398) |
(107) |
(7,690) |
10 |
Other investing activities |
(559) |
(751) |
(1,728) |
0 |
0 |
Cash used in investing activities (CFIA) |
(3,916) |
(2,736) |
(2,831) |
(8,690) |
(990) |
Net proceeds from issue of shares |
2,676 |
3,790 |
1,427 |
0 |
0 |
Movements in debt |
10 |
(12) |
(1,677) |
0 |
0 |
Other financing activities |
(2) |
(4) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cash from financing activities (CFF) |
2,684 |
3,774 |
(250) |
0 |
0 |
Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents |
(1,162) |
2,082 |
8,707 |
3,580 |
12,204 |
Currency translation differences and other |
(44) |
(111) |
363 |
0 |
0 |
Cash and equivalents at start of period |
4,424 |
3,218 |
5,189 |
14,259 |
17,839 |
Cash and equivalents at end of period |
3,218 |
5,189 |
14,259 |
17,839 |
30,043 |
Net (debt) cash |
3,218 |
5,189 |
14,259 |
17,839 |
30,043 |
Source: Ergomed accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
In its preliminary results, CREALOGIX announced a sales increase of 1.7% to CHF103.7m (FY19 CHF101.9m), 3.9% growth in constant currencies. As expected, there was an acceleration of growth in H220, 13.2% higher than H120, but revenues still fell c 1.7% short of our forecasts. Adjusted EBITDA of CHF2.4m was higher than in FY19 (CHF1.86m), although 6.8% off our EBITDA forecast of CHF2.58m. EBITDA excluded one-off provisions of CHF7.0m for streamlining business processes, unifying the product platform and a staff reorganisation, leading to job cuts of around 10% of headcount. After these provisions, the group reported an EBITDA loss of CHF4.6m. These measures are intended to accelerate the group’s transition to becoming a leading SaaS provider of digital banking platforms, with initial benefits from this investment expected to be seen in FY21, and a full year of benefit in FY22. Our forecasts (which exclude these exceptional items) remain unchanged pending the full-year results on 15 September 2020.
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