Carr’s Group — Details of FY22 performance

Carr’s Group (LSE: CARR)

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GBP1.13

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Market capitalisation

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Research: Industrials

Carr’s Group — Details of FY22 performance

Carr’s Group has released its audited results for FY22, having previously issued a detailed trading update in February giving preliminary financial metrics on FY22 performance. The shares were suspended from trading in January because of delays in publishing these results. The company has applied for them to be restored to trading.

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Industrials

Carr’s Group

Details of FY22 performance

FY22 results

Basic materials

27 March 2023

Price

121.5p

Market cap

£114m

Net debt (£m) on 3 September 2022 (excluding finance leases and before receipt of cash from disposal)

14.0

Shares in issue

94.0m

Free float

62.2%

Code

CARR

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

0.0

3.4

(18.7)

Rel (local)

5.5

3.2

(17.4)

52-week high/low

153p

92p

Business description

Carr’s Group’s Speciality Agriculture division serves farmers in the UK, Ireland, the US, Germany, Canada and New Zealand with feed blocks and feed supplements. The Engineering division offers remote handling equipment and fabrications to the global nuclear and oil and gas industries.

Next event

H123 results

April 2023

Analyst

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Carr’s Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Carr’s Group has released its audited results for FY22, having previously issued a detailed trading update in February giving preliminary financial metrics on FY22 performance. The shares were suspended from trading in January because of delays in publishing these results. The company has applied for them to be restored to trading.

Year

end

Revenue
(£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

08/21**

120.3

10.4

10.1

5.00

12.0

4.1

08/22

124.2

11.2

10.0

5.20

12.2

4.3

08/23e

150.0

10.5

8.8

5.40

13.8

4.4

08/24e

158.9

11.7

9.3

5.60

13.1

4.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Restated to treat Agricultural Supply as a discontinued business.

Strong recovery in Engineering in FY22

As discussed in detail in our note in early March, group revenues grew by 3.3% yoy to £124.2m in FY22, with higher commodity prices offsetting a small reduction in feed block volumes and lower revenues from the engineering division. Adjusted operating profit increased by 7.5% to £11.9m. A strong recovery in the Engineering division was partly offset by a reduction in profits from the Speciality Agriculture division and higher central costs. The full-year dividend was raised by 4% to 5.2p per share. We have updated our model to show the audited results, which include information on the discontinued Agricultural Supplies business and exceptional items.

FY23 outlook unchanged

Management has not provided any further information on H123 trading since the February announcement and intends to update investors when the interim results are released, which is likely to be in the last week of April. We therefore leave our FY23 and FY24 estimates broadly unchanged. H123 started well, with strong performances from both divisions. However, the trading environment became more challenging in November and December. Feed block volumes were adversely affected by a continuation of the drought in the US and mild weather in the UK. Engineering performance was held back by very competitive pricing for tenders.

Valuation: Scope for share price uplift

Now that there is clarity regarding the cash balance following the disposal of the Agricultural Supplies division, we revert to a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, which avoids the potential volatility associated with a peer multiples-based approach. Using a 9.5% WACC and a 2.0% terminal growth rate gives an indicative value of 154p/share, which is a 27% premium to the current share price. We see scope for further uplift in our indicative valuation as management invests the proceeds from the disposal in cash-enhancing acquisitions and in-house initiatives.

Additional information on FY22 performance

Our update earlier in March commented on group performance and the performance of the Speciality Agriculture and Engineering divisions, so we will not repeat that commentary in this note. The detailed FY22 results provided information on the discontinued Agricultural Supply business and on exceptional items, which was not available in the February trading update.

Agricultural Supplies division

Divisional revenues rose by 21.0% to £343.8m, reflecting significant increases in the cost of raw materials. Although livestock prices also increased, the volume of beef and sheep feed sold over the summer reduced year-on-year as farmers extended grazing to reduce cash expenditure. Stronger performances in the Country Store and farm machinery activities partly offset lower demand for feed and fuel. Adjusted divisional EBIT increased by 6.8% to £6.9m.

Exceptional items

Exhibit 1: Summary of exceptional items

Description (£m)

FY21

FY22

Adjustments to contingent consideration

1.0

1.3

Strategic review costs

0.0

(0.5)

Gain on acquisition of outstanding 50% stake in Afgritech joint venture

0.0

0.7

Goodwill impairment related to Chirton and Walischmiller Engineering businesses

0.0

(4.2)

Impairment related to Afgritech joint venture

(2.1)

0.0

Other

(0.6)

(0.1)

Total exceptional items included in reported EBIT

(1.7)

(2.7)

Source: Carr’s Group data

Estimates

Since management has not provided any further information on H123 trading since the February announcement we leave our FY23 and FY24 estimates broadly unchanged, except for revising amortisation and depreciation in line with FY22 levels. This results in no change to the adjusted EBIT, PBT or EPS estimates. FY23 EBITDA rises from £14.1m to £15.0m and FY24 rises by the same amount to £16.1m.

Valuation

SOTP analysis 

We base our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis (Exhibit 2) on the EBIT attributable to each remaining division, including the contribution from joint ventures (JVs) where appropriate, applying multiples derived from the peer comparison in Exhibit 3. The peer group for the Speciality Agriculture division is relatively small and diverse, so does not provide a definitive valuation. Anpario provides biological feed additives, Benchmark offers aquaculture biotechnology and Genus supplies pig, dairy and beef farmers with animals, semen or embryos carrying desirable characteristics for producing higher-quality meat and milk more efficiently. The engineering division may struggle to command multiples similar to the peers listed above until investors can see that the current margin pressures on some fabrication projects have eased. Subject to these limitations, our calculation gives an indicative valuation of 235.6p/share. If we were to cut the Speciality Agriculture sample back to just Anpario, which is the closest peer with regards to products, this would apply a multiple of 13.5x to the Speciality Agriculture EBIT and give an indicative valuation of 183.4p.

Exhibit 2: SOTP analysis

FY23 EBIT
(£m)

Multiple
(x)

Value
(£m)

Speciality Agriculture

8.4

19.4

161.8

Engineering

5.2

13.6

70.6

Central costs

(2.6)

8.0

(20.9)

EV

10.9

211.5

Net debt at end FY22

(14.0)

Net initial proceeds from disposal

24.0

Equity value

221.5

Number of shares (m)

94.0

Indicative value per share (p)

235.6

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Peer multiples

Name

Market cap (£m) 

EV/EBIT 1FY (x)

EV/EBIT 2FY (x)

P/E 1FY
(x)

P/E 2FY
(x)

Speciality agriculture

Anpario

74.3

13.5

12.9

19.9

18.9

Benchmark Holdings

266.7

83.9

22.5

(56.3)

401.7

Genus

1,916.9

25.3

22.1

31.6

27.0

Mean

19.4

17.5

25.8

22.9

Engineering

Avingtrans

144.8

14.7

13.8

20.1

18.8

IMI

3,894.1

12.4

11.5

13.7

12.7

James Fisher and Sons

149.4

13.3

11.2

11.3

8.1

Weir Group

4,685.9

13.9

12.9

16.8

15.5

Mean

13.6

12.3

15.5

13.8

Source: Refinitiv. Note: Prices at 22 March 2023. Grey shading indicates exclusion from mean.

DCF methodology

The sample of Speciality Agriculture peers is small and the three companies in the sample have very divergent multiples. Moreover, the resultant indicative valuation is inflated by the inclusion of Genus, which offers very different products to the group’s Speciality Agriculture division. (Benchmark Holdings’ multiples are excluded from the calculation anyway.) We therefore prefer a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. This has become viable again now that there is clarity regarding the cash balance following the disposal of the Agricultural Supplies division. Using a 9.5% WACC and a 2.0% terminal growth rate gives an indicative value of 154p/share, which is a 27% premium to the current share price. We see scope for further uplift in indicative valuation as management invests the proceeds from the disposal in cash-enhancing acquisitions and in-house initiatives.

Exhibit 4: DCF valuation (p/share) – sensitivities to WACC and terminal growth assumptions

Discount rate (post-tax, nominal)

8.0%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

11.0%

Terminal growth

0.0%

155

138

131

125

115

1.0%

170

150

142

134

122

1.5%

180

157

148

139

126

2.0%

191

165

154

145

130

3.0%

220

185

171

160

141

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 5: Financial summary

£m

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

Year end 31 August

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

restated

Revenue

 

 

120.3

124.2

150.0

158.9

EBITDA (including share of post-tax results of associate and JVs)

 

 

14.9

16.0

15.0

16.1

Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.)

 

 

11.1

11.9

10.9

12.1

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(1.2)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(0.9)

Exceptionals

(1.7)

(2.7)

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

8.2

8.2

10.0

11.1

Net Interest

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.4)

(0.4)

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

10.4

11.2

10.5

11.7

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

7.5

7.6

9.6

10.7

Reported tax

(1.8)

(1.5)

(2.3)

(2.9)

Profit After Tax (norm) - continuing businesses

9.4

9.4

8.3

8.7

Profit After Tax (reported) - continuing businesses

5.7

6.0

7.3

7.8

Profit after tax of discontinued operations

3.8

4.0

0.0

0.0

Loss on disposal of discontinued operations

0.0

(6.2)

0.0

0.0

Reported profit for the year including discontinued operations

9.6

3.8

7.3

7.8

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

93.1

93.9

94.0

94.0

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

10.1

10.0

8.8

9.3

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

9.9

9.9

8.7

9.2

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

6.2

6.4

7.8

8.3

Dividend (p)

5.00

5.20

5.40

5.60

EBITDA Margin (%)

12.4

12.9

10.0

10.1

Normalised Operating Margin (%)

9.2

9.6

7.3

7.6

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

123.5

83.2

82.6

81.9

Intangible Assets

36.7

28.2

27.6

27.0

Tangible Assets

53.0

41.4

41.4

41.3

Investments & other

33.9

13.6

13.6

13.6

Current Assets

 

 

139.1

228.5

106.7

111.8

Stocks

43.2

27.0

27.1

27.9

Debtors

68.9

26.6

27.4

27.4

Cash & cash equivalents

24.3

22.5

45.7

50.0

Other (including assets in disposal group classified as held for sale)

2.7

152.4

6.5

6.5

Current Liabilities

 

 

(87.0)

(139.9)

(35.3)

(33.0)

Creditors

(72.8)

(23.4)

(23.4)

(23.5)

Tax and social security

(0.0)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Short term borrowings including finance leases

(14.1)

(14.2)

(11.2)

(8.8)

Other (including liabilities in disposal group classified as held for sale)

0.0

(101.6)

(0.1)

(0.1)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(41.2)

(35.3)

(35.3)

(35.3)

Long term borrowings including finance leases

(35.6)

(29.9)

(29.9)

(29.9)

Other long term liabilities

(5.6)

(5.4)

(5.4)

(5.4)

Net Assets

 

 

134.6

136.5

118.6*

125.3

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

14.9

16.0

15.0

16.1

Working capital

5.3

(8.7)

(0.9)

(0.7)

Exceptional & other

(2.1)

(2.8)

0.0

0.0

Tax

(1.3)

(0.8)

(2.3)

(2.9)

Net Operating Cash Flow

 

 

16.9

3.7

11.8

12.5

Investment activities

(3.0)

(4.0)

(4.3)

(4.3)

Acquisitions/disposals

(1.1)

(0.4)

24.0

4.0

Net interest

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.4)

(0.4)

Equity financing

0.9

0.4

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(5.5)

(4.7)

(4.9)

(5.1)

Other (including cash generated from discontinued operations)

3.4

13.1

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

10.8

7.2

26.2

6.7

Opening net debt/(cash) including finance leases

 

 

(32.8)

25.4

21.6

(4.6)

FX and other non-cash movements

(69.0)

(3.3)

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash) including finance leases

 

 

25.4

21.6

(4.6)

(11.3)

Finance leases

15.4

7.5

7.5

7.5

Closing net debt/(cash) excluding finance leases

10.0

14.0

(12.2)

(18.8)

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *There was no pro forma information on shareholder equity, so this is subject to change as information becomes available.


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Carr’s Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Carr’s Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Carr’s Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Carr’s Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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