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Research: TMT
Mynaric has developed equipment for transmitting data via laser between moving airborne or space platforms at rates similar to conventional optical fibre but with the light transmitted through free space rather than along a cable. Recent newsflow demonstrates that not only are government and commercial entities planning satellite constellations deploying optical communications links, but also that Mynaric is being selected as a supplier of laser communications terminals for these constellations.
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Mynaric |
Connectivity for the skies and beyond
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Technology |
Deutsches Eigenkapitalforum 2020
6 October 2020 |
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Mynaric is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Mynaric has developed equipment for transmitting data via laser between moving airborne or space platforms at rates similar to conventional optical fibre but with the light transmitted through free space rather than along a cable. Recent newsflow demonstrates that not only are government and commercial entities planning satellite constellations deploying optical communications links, but also that Mynaric is being selected as a supplier of laser communications terminals for these constellations.
Suppliers chosen for US defence constellation
In August 2020 the US Space Development Agency (SDA) announced that it had awarded contracts to build 10 satellites each for the first phase of its low earth orbit (LEO) communications network to Lockheed Martin and York Space Systems. Examination of the contract documentation suggests that Lockheed has selected Tesat to supply the optical communications terminals and York Space has selected both Mynaric and SA Photonics. The satellites must be ready for launch by September 2022. Shortly afterwards Mynaric announced that it had secured its first win in the US governmental market, which was in the mid-seven-digit euros range.
Preparing for volume delivery
This initial phase of the SDA constellation will require a total of 68 laser terminals, which management believes is around three times the entire number of laser terminals that have been built collectively by any supplier so far. The SDA has plans to expand the constellation to 300–500 satellites. These volumes are likely to present a challenge to Mynaric’s competitors, which have historically produced individual bespoke items. In contrast Mynaric has focused on developing product for delivery in high volumes. It expects to manufacture around 30 terminals this year and to be able to produce 100–500 units/year by 2022. This puts it in a good position to take market share as constellation owners such as the SDA move from the pathfinder phase to full-scale deployment of hundreds of satellites.
Valuation: Based on analysis of potential revenue
Since Mynaric is not expected to start delivering significant numbers of commercial units until H221 and to generate an operating profit until FY22, we use a scenario analysis rather than a peer group comparison of multiples. This analysis shows that a constellation of 100 LEO satellites could require €75m of Mynaric’s laser communications terminals and a cluster of 250 airborne communications platforms could require €113m of equipment.
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Consensus estimates
Source: Hauck & Aufhauser, Kepler Cheuvreux and MainFirst. Note: *Restated. |
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Research: TMT
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