International Airlines Group — Compounding a strong Q324 comparative

International Airlines Group (LSE: IAG)

Last close As at 07/11/2025

GBP3.66

−47.90 (−11.57%)

Market capitalisation

GBP16,791m

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

International Airlines Group — Compounding a strong Q324 comparative

International Airlines Group’s (IAG’s) Q325 results show the company is executing effectively its strategy of delivering peer-leading profitability through a focus on customer experience and operational transformation, while returning substantial capital to shareholders. With a favourable demand outlook, likely lower cost pressures and a strong balance sheet, management intends to announce further returns with the publication of FY25 results in February 2026, and has optionality to undertake M&A.

Russell Pointon

Written by

Russell Pointon

Director of Content, Consumer and Media

Industrials

QuickView

10 November 2025

Price1 366.20p
Market cap €19,101m
1€4.46
Price Performance
Share details
Code IAG
Listing LSE

Shares in issue

4,585.2m

Net cash/(debt) at 30 September 2025

€(6,009.0)m

Business description

International Airlines Group is a European multinational airline company that provides passenger, cargo and adjacent services. Its airlines include Aer Lingus, British Airways, Iberia and Vueling, alongside IAG Loyalty.

Bull points

  • The aviation sector enjoys secular growth in demand, supported by a shift in spend to services and experiences from goods, and favourable demographics.
  • The industry has seen more rational capacity development and constraints on new aircraft production are expected to support pricing for some years to come.
  • IAG operates in some of the world’s largest and most attractive travel markets.

Bear points

  • The airline industry is vulnerable to changes in economic growth and consumer spending.
  • Volatile fuel and rising labour costs (43% of FY24 sales) can pressure profitability.
  • Free cash flow generation has been volatile and low (relative to sales) as swings in profitability can be compounded by capital investment.

Analysts

Russell Pointon
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Harry Kilby
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

International Airlines Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Q325 profit growth on strong comparative

IAG’s adjusted operating profit increased by 2% in Q325, no mean feat against the tough comparative from Q324, when it increased by 15.4% on 7.9% revenue growth. On flat revenue in Q325, cost discipline (broadly unchanged (+0.2%) non-fuel costs) and more favourable fuel costs (down by 10.9%), both on a per-unit basis, led to the underlying operating margin increasing to 22.0% (21.6% in Q324). This gave an operating margin over the last 12 months of 15.2%. All of IAG’s airlines reported an adjusted operating margin above 20%, although that for British Airways and Vueling slipped year-on-year. The flat revenue performance reflects flat passenger revenue (higher capacity offset by lower unit revenue, mainly due to forex) and growth by IAG Loyalty, offset by declines in cargo revenue as yields normalised following Q324’s surge due to Red Sea-related disruption to supply chains. The strong financial performance continues to feed improving shareholder returns with an increased interim dividend of €0.048/share (€0.03 for H124), and the €1bn share buyback announced in February 2025 has almost been completed. The balance sheet is strong with net debt/EBITDA of 0.8x (1.1x at end FY25), well below the target of 1.8x across the cycle.

FY25 financial guidance unchanged

Management’s maintained financial guidance for FY25, another year of revenue and earnings growth, includes no changes to the underlying assumption for capacity growth and operating costs from the H125 results. Looking to FY26, although there was no explicit guidance from management, its initial outlook for cost growth looks favourable with moderating cost inflation compared to FY25. Management foresees overall favourable travel demand with positive trends into Q425 and Q126, albeit there is some softness in certain European markets.

Valuation: Attractive discount versus peers

IAG’s prospective P/E compares favourably with the median for its European peers of 8.0x for FY25 and 6.7x for FY26, as well as offering an attractive dividend yield.

LSEG Data & Analytics. EBITDA, EBIT and EPS are adjusted for exceptional items.

Consensus estimates

Year end Revenue (€m) EBIT (€m) EPS (€) DPS (€) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) Yield (%)
12/23 29,453.0 3,507.0 0.51 0.00 4.5 8.2 N/A
12/24 32,100.0 4,443.0 0.57 0.09 3.7 7.3 2.2
12/25e 33,395.0 4,891.0 0.68 0.11 3.4 6.1 2.6
12/26e 34,584.0 5,068.0 0.72 0.13 3.2 5.8 3.0

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by International Airlines Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by International Airlines Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright 2025 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or sol icitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

More on International Airlines Group

View All

Latest from the Industrials sector

View All Industrials content

Research: Energy & Resources

Rubis — Positive Q3 trading update

Rubis has provided an encouraging Q325 trading update that once again underscores the benefits of the company’s diversified business model and the defensive nature of its stock. Against the backdrop of volatile commodity prices and adverse forex moves the company reported a 3% y-o-y reduction in total revenues to €1,581m, supported by a 6% increase in volumes in its key Retail and Marketing division, which in turn saw broadly flat revenues and a 9% rebound in gross margin. Rubis reaffirmed its FY25 guidance, noting strong operational momentum. We have tweaked our estimates slightly, maintaining our valuation at €37.0/share.

Continue Reading