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Research: Financials
Secure Trust Bank’s (STB) FY19 figures were good, as already flagged in its trading update. Underlying ROE was 14.0% (FY18: 12.8%), EPS was up 10% y o y and capital remained comfortable (CET1 12.7%). However, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant drop in business activity and impairments are expected to increase. STB has suspended forward guidance since March due to uncertainty relating to the pandemic and subsequent economic recovery. Its relatively short duration loan book, already cautious lending stance and good capital position should help. Financial markets turmoil has the bank trading on a 2019 P/BV of 0.65x despite a track record of delivering value creating ROE above its COE.
Written by
Secure Trust Bank |
Caution after a fine 2019 |
FY19 results |
Banks |
14 May 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Secure Trust Bank is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Secure Trust Bank’s (STB) FY19 figures were good, as already flagged in its trading update. Underlying ROE was 14.0% (FY18: 12.8%), EPS was up 10% yoy and capital remained comfortable (CET1 12.7%). However, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a significant drop in business activity and impairments are expected to increase. STB has suspended forward guidance since March due to uncertainty relating to the pandemic and subsequent economic recovery. Its relatively short duration loan book, already cautious lending stance and good capital position should help. Financial markets turmoil has the bank trading on a 2019 P/BV of 0.65x despite a track record of delivering value creating ROE above its COE.
Year end |
Operating income (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/18 |
151.6 |
36.7 |
161.8 |
83.0 |
5.5 |
9.4 |
12/19 |
165.5 |
41.1 |
178.6 |
20.0** |
4.9 |
2.3* |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Final 2019 dividend suspended.
Solid FY19 results as expected
The key message during FY19 from STB was cautious optimism. It was growing its balance sheet at a fast pace (loans grew 20% in 2019), and at the same time it was de-risking the loan profile. Management were concerned about the economic slowdown, the impact of Brexit as well as the lending rates in some segments such as consumer mortgages. STB was able to deliver a robust return on equity (ROE) of 14% in 2019 with credit risk under control, while investing in areas such as motor finance and commercial finance for future growth.
Manage risk, support clients
STB’s relatively short loan book duration allows it to de-risk quicker and protect capital and maintain liquidity. But impairments will inevitably rise and loan book shrinkage also adversely affects results. STB currently is seeing no new motor finance lending (car dealers and brokers are closed), while retail finance is at 50% of normal levels. The bank now is focused on managing the risks and supporting clients. Management believes merger and acquisition opportunities may exist as the economy emerges from the crisis. Operationally speaking, the bank can increase lending fairly quickly as the economy improves. The key challenge will be assessing the new lending conditions and risk parameters in the recovery phase.
Valuation: Fundamentals not in the price
Banks are highly cyclical stocks and often heavily discounted during recessions or periods of heightened uncertainty. STB shares have fallen 41% in last three months and are on a 2019 P/BV multiple of 0.65x. Earnings should be sharply down in 2020; 2021 also will be affected. But STB has a good long-term track record of returns above its cost of equity (COE), a robust balance sheet and a cautious and nimble approach to lending. As market sentiment calms down and clarity improves, fundamentals should come to the fore, which could clearly suggest a valuation well above book value. Our forecasts and valuation remain under review.
Solid FY19 results
STB’s FY19 reported pre-tax profit of £38.7m was up 11.5% y-o-y and 4% below our forecasts. The underlying ROE was 14.0% compared to 12.8% a year ago. Loan growth was 21% y-o-y, but its good profitability has helped STB to finish the year with a healthy capital position (a CET1 of 12.7%, above our forecast of 12.1%). STB’s cautious lending stance and business repositioning meant that revenue (+9.2% y-o-y) was a little bit less than our forecast, but operating expenses were better and the impairment charges fell notably despite the economic slowdown. The bank had already sounded a positive tone regarding loan quality in its pre-trading update. The impairment charge ratio was 146bp (we forecast 149bp) and lower than a year ago (179bp).
Exhibit 1: STB Selected income items and ratios
Year end 31 December, £m |
FY18 |
FY19 |
Y-o-y % |
FY19e |
vs estimate |
Net interest income |
133.7 |
145.4 |
8.8% |
148.8 |
-2.3% |
Net fees & commissions |
17.9 |
20.1 |
12.3% |
22.1 |
-9.0% |
Total operating income |
151.6 |
165.5 |
9.2% |
170.9 |
-3.2% |
Operating expenses |
(84.5) |
(94.2) |
11.5% |
(97.4) |
-3.3% |
Pre-provision profit |
67.1 |
71.3 |
6.3% |
73.5 |
-3.0% |
Impairment charges on loans |
(32.4) |
(32.6) |
0.6% |
(33.2) |
-1.8% |
Pre-tax profit |
34.7 |
38.7 |
11.5% |
40.3 |
-4.0% |
Tax |
(6.4) |
(7.6) |
18.8% |
(7.8) |
-2.6% |
Tax rate |
18.4% |
19.6% |
19.3% |
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Reported net attributable income |
28.3 |
31.1 |
+9.9% |
31.5 |
-1.3% |
Underlying net attributable income |
29.9 |
33.0 |
10.4% |
33.2 |
-0.6% |
Reported EPS (p) |
152.2 |
167.3 |
+9.9% |
169.5 |
-1.3% |
Underlying EPS (p) |
161.8 |
178.6 |
10.4% |
179.5 |
-0.6% |
Key ratios |
FY18 |
FY19 |
FY19e |
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Cost income ratio |
56% |
57% |
57% |
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NIM (NII/average loans) |
7.4% |
6.5% |
6.7% |
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Impairment charge % average loans |
1.79% |
1.46% |
1.49% |
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Loan/deposit ratio |
109.8% |
121.3% |
108.0% |
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CET 1 ratio |
13.8% |
12.7% |
12.1% |
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Underlying ROE |
12.8% |
14.0% |
12.6% |
Source: Secure Trust Bank data, Edison Investment Research
The reported loan growth of 20.8% y-o-y was similar to our forecasts. Consumer finance was stronger than expected due to the 17.1% y-o-y increase in motor finance, which reflects ongoing efforts and investments in this segment.
Business finance growth was broadly in line, but the pace of growth in commercial finance (invoice finance) slowed down in the second half of 2019. The growth was affected by the insolvency of three large borrowers. However, STB did successfully collect the money (£35m), which reflects its skills at collecting out in insolvencies and avoiding credit losses. Despite these lost balances, the year-on-year increase in commercial finance was still a very strong 29%. This was a segment that STB has been investing in a regional expansion.
Asset finance continues to be in a runoff, while consumer mortgages lending is on hold as STB still feels that net interest margins are too low to give a decent ROE and that better returns are achieved by deploying capital in areas such as invoice finance and retail lending.
Exhibit 2: STB loan book
Year end 31 December, £m |
FY18 |
FY19 |
Y-o-y % |
FY19e |
vs exp |
Consumer finance |
990.4 |
1,200.9 |
21.3% |
1,125.5 |
6.7% |
Motor loans |
276.4 |
323.7 |
17.1% |
320.0 |
1.2% |
Retail finance |
597.0 |
688.9 |
15.4% |
680.0 |
1.3% |
Debt management |
32.3 |
82.4 |
155.1% |
45.0 |
83.1% |
Consumer mortgages |
84.7 |
105.9 |
25.0% |
80.5 |
31.6% |
Business finance |
1,027.3 |
1,241.6 |
20.9% |
1,290.0 |
-3.7% |
Real estate finance |
769.8 |
962.2 |
25.0% |
1,000.0 |
-3.8% |
Asset finance |
62.8 |
27.7 |
-55.9% |
0.0 |
n.m. |
Commercial finance |
194.7 |
251.7 |
29.3% |
290.0 |
-13.2% |
Other |
11.2 |
7.6 |
-32.1% |
13.0 |
-41.5% |
Total |
2,028.9 |
2,450.1 |
20.8% |
2,428.5 |
0.9% |
Source: Secure Trust Bank data, Edison Investment Research
Riding out the storm
Closed shops and businesses mean lower business volume and fewer lending opportunities for STB. Some of the retail finance business is done online, but STB is seeing retail lending volumes at 50% below normal. Commercial finance, which is essentially invoice discounting for STB, is typically 60–90 days’ duration and is also by definition short duration. These two segments account for 38% of the loan book and will reduce in size during the lockdown.
Motor finance (13% of the book) is longer dated but there will be very little new business as long as the dealerships and brokers are closed. This is particularly unfortunate since STB completed the second stage of the transformation of the motor business (dealer stocking finance is now up and running) as it grows its business into dealer and prime consumer finance.
Real estate finance, 40% of the loan book, is more resilient in terms of business volume in the shorter term. However, the recession could have an impact on opportunities in the medium and longer term and collateral value could also be affected. We do note that the real estate finance average loan to value (LTV) is only 58%. This mitigates the impact of falls in collateral value.
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Exhibit 3: STB loan breakdown (2019) |
Exhibit 4: Lending gross yield and impairments (%) |
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|
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Source: Secure Trust Bank data, Edison Investment Research |
Source: Secure Trust Bank data, Edison Investment Research. Note: LLC: loan loss charge |
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Exhibit 3: STB loan breakdown (2019) |
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|
Source: Secure Trust Bank data, Edison Investment Research |
|
Exhibit 4: Lending gross yield and impairments (%) |
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|
Source: Secure Trust Bank data, Edison Investment Research. Note: LLC: loan loss charge |
Although some measures of the lockdown are being gradually eased in the UK, many businesses are still closed and the depth of the economic recession and the speed of the rebound are still unknown. A rubber-band recovery would be welcome, but is not guaranteed.
Management has maintained the suspension of forward guidance. The focus is now on managing the risks and supporting clients through this difficult phase. It will also look to control costs as much as possible. Liquidity and capital are unlikely to be a problem due to the good equity position and the short duration of the loan book. However, this is still an exercise in damage limitation.
STB reported a profit before impairment of 3.2% of average loans in 2019. The impairment charge was under half of that at 1.46%. This shows some decent headroom for the rise in impairments, but profitability could be challenged if the recession is deep and protracted. Furthermore, some of the loan book reduction will also eat into the revenue. However, it is important to highlight the Bank of England rules introduced regarding COVID-19. Under these rules, loan covenant breaches and impairments that would not have occurred if not for COVID-19’s impact do not require the banks to automatically classify them as level 3 loans, with the associated higher impairment charges. This gives needed flexibility to banks to manage and account for the risks in a realistic and pragmatic fashion.
STB management has done some internal stress testing using a medium and a hard scenario. In the former it assumed (1) 7% unemployment, (2) new business levels decrease significantly, (3) collection performance falls as well and (4) collateral values drop due to house and used car prices falling. In the second scenario, unemployment goes over 10% and the other parameters are also increased. According to these stress tests, the bank’s capital and liquidity requirements were not breached and these stress tests assumed no strategic measures such as formal cost reduction programmes.
Looking ahead to after the recovery, the bank will likely be in a position to deploy its capital again. Management are being proactive in adjusting their lending criteria to reflect the change in consumer and business risk profiles.
Management maintains its keenness to pursue merger and acquisition business opportunities with a strategic fit and that meet risk appetite. It shall wait to see what new opportunities may emerge after the disruptive recession.
Valuation: Fear, not fundamentals
STB’s share price has dropped by 41% in last three months, mirroring 43% average decline in the sample of challenger/specialist lender peers shown in Exhibit 5. STB’s 2019 P/E of 4.9x is 10% below its peers’ average of 5.5x. It also is trading at significant P/BV discount of 25% to its peers, but delivered a higher ROE in 2019 (14.0% vs 11.2%).
STB has a track record of delivering ROE above its COE (we use 10%). We believe when market and economic conditions normalise, it could deliver ROEs in the 15–17% region (dependent on usage of capital) and so the fair value should be comfortably well above its book value. Its present trading P/BV of 0.6x reflects the current market conditions and heightened level of uncertainty regarding the recession and subsequent rebound, rather than longer-term fundamentals. As these fears subside and economic visibility improves we would expect this to be reflected in the STB share price.
Exhibit 5: Challenger/specialist lender share price performance, %
1 month |
3 months |
1 year |
YTD |
From 12m high |
|
Secure Trust Bank |
-9.0 |
-41.1 |
-38.3 |
-44.8 |
-49.0 |
Close Brothers |
-5.6 |
-29.2 |
-31.5 |
-34.6 |
-37.2 |
CYBG |
-9.9 |
-61.9 |
-61.7 |
-61.4 |
-67.3 |
Metrobank |
-15.3 |
-62.9 |
-85.3 |
-61.9 |
-91.2 |
OneSavings Bank |
7.6 |
-44.2 |
-42.7 |
-43.3 |
-46.7 |
Paragon |
-6.5 |
-40.3 |
-30.6 |
-40.5 |
-42.3 |
PCF Group |
13.6 |
-32.4 |
-24.2 |
-28.6 |
-35.6 |
S&U |
-5.1 |
-32.3 |
-27.0 |
-24.9 |
-36.6 |
Average |
-3.0 |
-43.3 |
-43.3 |
-42.2 |
-51.0 |
STB vs Average |
-6 |
2 |
5 |
-3 |
2 |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices as at 7 May 2020.
Exhibit 6: Challenger/specialist lender comparative table
|
Price close (p) |
Market cap |
P/E last reported (x) |
ROE last reported (%) |
P/BV last reported (x) |
Secure Trust Bank |
883 |
165.5 |
4.9 |
14.0 |
0.65 |
Close Brothers |
1045 |
1591.1 |
10.5 |
14.9 |
1.12 |
CYBG |
72.72 |
1052.2 |
5.0 |
9.8 |
0.21 |
Metrobank |
78.64 |
136.4 |
-1.5 |
-1.1 |
0.09 |
OneSavings Bank |
245.8 |
1103.6 |
5.3 |
15.9 |
0.74 |
Paragon |
320.6 |
827.4 |
6.7 |
10.3 |
0.76 |
PCF Group |
25 |
62.9 |
6.9 |
11.0 |
1.06 |
S&U |
1585 |
193.3 |
3.9 |
16.8 |
1.23 |
Average |
5.3 |
11.1 |
0.74 |
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Average ex-Metro |
5.5 |
11.2 |
0.7 |
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STB vs Average ex-Metro |
-10% |
25% |
-11% |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices at 7 May 2020.
Exhibit 7: Financial summary
Year end 31 December |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
£m except where stated |
|||
Profit and loss |
|||
Net interest income |
114.6 |
133.7 |
145.4 |
Net commission income |
14.9 |
17.9 |
20.1 |
Total operating income |
129.5 |
151.6 |
165.5 |
Total G&A expenses (exc non-recurring items below) |
(71.3) |
(84.5) |
(94.2) |
Operating profit pre impairments & exceptionals |
58.2 |
67.1 |
71.3 |
Impairment charges on loans |
(33.5) |
(32.4) |
(32.6) |
Other income |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Operating profit post impairments |
25.0 |
34.7 |
38.7 |
Non-recurring items |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Pre tax profit - continuing basis |
25.0 |
34.7 |
38.7 |
Corporation Tax |
(5.1) |
(6.4) |
(7.6) |
Tax rate |
20.4% |
18.4% |
19.6% |
Bank tax surcharge |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Profit after tax - continuing basis |
19.9 |
28.3 |
31.1 |
Discontinued business |
3.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(Loss)/profit for year |
23.8 |
28.3 |
31.1 |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Net income attributable to equity shareholders |
23.8 |
28.3 |
31.1 |
Company reported pre-tax earnings adjustments |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.4 |
Reported underlying pre-tax earnings |
27.0 |
36.7 |
41.1 |
Reported underlying earnings after tax |
21.5 |
29.9 |
33.0 |
Average basic number of shares in issue (m) |
18.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
Average diluted number of shares in issue (m) |
18.6 |
18.6 |
18.6 |
Reported diluted EPS (p) |
107.0 |
152.2 |
167.3 |
Underlying diluted EPS (p) |
116.4 |
161.8 |
178.6 |
Ordinary DPS (p) |
79.0 |
83.0 |
20.0 |
Special DPS (p) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Net interest/average loans |
7.72% |
7.37% |
6.49% |
Impairments/average loans |
2.30% |
1.79% |
1.46% |
Cost income ratio |
55.1% |
55.7% |
56.9% |
Balance sheet |
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Net customer loans |
1,598.3 |
2,028.9 |
2,450.1 |
Other assets |
293.3 |
415.4 |
232.7 |
Total assets |
1,891.6 |
2,444.3 |
2,682.8 |
Total customer deposits |
1,483.2 |
1,847.7 |
2,020.3 |
Other liabilities |
159.3 |
359.5 |
408.4 |
Total liabilities |
1,642.5 |
2,207.2 |
2,428.7 |
Net assets |
249.1 |
237.1 |
254.1 |
Minorities |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Shareholders' equity |
249.1 |
237.1 |
254,1 |
Reconciliation of movement in equity |
|||
Opening shareholders' equity |
236.0 |
249.1 |
237.1 |
Profit in period |
23.8 |
28.1 |
31.1 |
Other comprehensive income |
2.9 |
(25.8) |
0.0 |
Ordinary dividends |
(14.0) |
(14.8) |
(15.5) |
Special dividend |
0.0 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
Share based payments |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
Issue of shares |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Share issuance costs |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Closing shareholders' equity |
249.1 |
237.1 |
254.2 |
Other selected data and ratios |
|||
Period end shares in issue (m) |
18.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
NAV per share (p) |
1,348 |
1,283 |
1,357 |
Tangible NAV per share (p) |
1,292 |
1,230 |
1,327 |
Return on average equity |
9.8% |
11.6% |
12.7% |
Normalised return on average equity |
8.9% |
12.8% |
14.0% |
Return on average TNAV |
9.3% |
13.4% |
14.7% |
Average loans |
1,484.6 |
1,826.4 |
2,258.9 |
Average deposits |
1,321.7 |
1,655.4 |
1,967.8 |
Loans/deposits |
107.8% |
109.8% |
121.3% |
Risk exposure |
1,446.1 |
1,824.6 |
2,118.1 |
Common equity tier 1 ratio |
16.5% |
13.8% |
12.7% |
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research
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Research: TMT
Cyan’s share price has fallen c 30% since the beginning of 2020. Financials fell short of guidance in FY19 and COVID-19 is delaying some sales and technical integration in FY20. The near-term picture is uncertain, and we see further risks to consensus, but the long-term fundamentals remain healthy in our view. Demand for mobile cybersecurity is being fuelled by the rising use of phones for e-commerce and banking. The company is still targeting both ‘significant’ revenue growth and margins above 50% in the medium term. Applying a peer group multiple (11x FY21e EV/EBITDA) to updated consensus implies 17% upside to the share price.